Wednesday Night Quarterback, Week 12: A Playoff Picture

Wednesday Night Quarterback, Week 12: A Playoff Picture

Attention all Managers. If there are any proposals you have about the league/league constitution, please submit them to me BY THE COMPLETION OF THE PLAYOFFS, as there will need to be a vote after the season is over. Contact me with any questions.

I recognize I was delinquent again last week. Curses! I’ll get a few things I was thinking (then) out of the way early, so Peter doesn’t say I’m “behind” again.

1) Let the record show that I am PISSED about having the second-highest score of the week (by fifteen points!) and still losing. EPIC MELTDOWN time for Touched by an Uncle.

2) Record setting score of the week: 23 points by Rob Gronkowski, good for 3rd on the all-time TE list. Gronkowski now holds two of the top five spots for TEs all time in our league; Antonio Gates has all of the others. [Update: then he went and got the 7^th highest spot of all time with his Week 11 performance. Go me!]

3) Runner-Up Record setting score of the week: John Kasay putting up 17 and moving into sole-posession of ninth on the all-time Kickers list.

4) Fun fact about Kickers: as of right now, seven of the top ten kicker spots are from this season. This is not a comment on overall scoring, as no more than three of the top ten spots for any other position have been filled during this season. Also, the rules this year actually slightly changed to PENALIZE kickers, who get negative points for missed FGs and PATs. This has been an exceptional year for kickers.

5) Drew is dead! Long-live Drew! Well, not dead, but now no longer undefeated

And now for a few observations from this week…

What. The. Fuck. Another tie?! I was going to mention how unprecedented it was for Scott and Peter to tie last week and make the second tie of the season, as there had only been two ties in the previous four seasons. But lo and behold, now we’ve had two in two weeks. Travis is at fucking 5-4-2! That is totally ridiculous.

Speaking, however, of Travis’s ridiculous record, virtually everything that need to happen to make the playoff race just totally bonkers occurred. Travis couldn’t pull off a win against Donel. Jason lost to Kim, and Peter beat Scott. The playoff picture, which could have quieted considerably with a few different outcomes, is now very much a hot button topic. With that being said, I bring you to…

POSSIBLE PLAYOFF SCENARIOS!

Here is a list of the current playoff seedings as of right now. I’ve eliminated the divisional breakdown for this chart, seeing as it is irrelevant.

1) Drew: 10-1, 1181 PF

2) Ryan: 8-3, 1099 PF

3) Rob: 7-4, 1046 PF

4) Scott: 6-4-1, 1131 PF

5) Travis: 5-4-2, 1062 PF

6) Kim: 5-5-1, 981 PF

7) Jason: 5-6, 926 PF

8) Peter: 4-6-1, 873 PF

9) Donel: 1-9-1, 853 PF

10) Kyle: 1-10, 726 PF

First, let’s start with the ELIMINATED TEAMS: Kyle (1-10), Donel (1-9-1). There isn’t much to say about them. They are quite terrible and not worth further mentioning.

Sure things: Drew, Ryan, Rob

That’s right bitches! I’m in the playoffs! You can all suck it. Ahem. Now, that being said, these are NOT, by definition, the top three seeds of the league. However, there is no way that any of these three teams can fall out of the playoffs.

The Contenders: Scott, Travis, Kim, Jason, and Peter (!!)

While conventional wisdom would put Scott, Travis, and then one of the remaining three into the playoffs, but there are a boatload of possible ways this could all go down.

Drew (The Frum) possible seeding: #1

Drew is the definitive #1 seed. Only Ryan can get to 10 wins (with wins during Week 12 and Week 13), but Drew has the H2H tiebreaker with his win over Ryan in Week 6. That effectively gives him a bye and the top seed.

Ryan possible seeding: #2-3

Ryan holds H2H tiebreaker with myself, but is currently 0-1 against Scott; if he beats Scott during Week 12 the tiebreaker becomes their current PF, for which Scott is ahead by 32 points.

Ryan is the #2 seed if: He wins at least one of his next two games OR Scott loses either of his next two games OR Rob loses either of his next two games OR Scott wins both games but scores 32 less points over the same time period

Ryan is the #3 seed if: He loses both of his games AND Rob wins both of his games OR Scott wins both of his games. These situations are MUTUALLY exclusive, as Scott and I play in Week 13.

Rob possible seeding: #2-6

Ryan holds a H2H tiebreaker over myself. I am currently 1-0 vs. Scott but will meet up with him again in Week 13. I win the H2H tiebreaker with Jason and Peter cannot pass me based on record. Kim and Travis both have ties so the likelihood of my tying with them is very low .

Rob is the #2 seed if: I win both games AND Ryan loses both games

Rob is the #3 seed if: I win both games AND Ryan wins at least one game OR I lose one game AND Scott wins only one of the next two games

Rob is the #4 seed if: I win during Week 12 but lose to Scott in Week 13 AND Scott also wins in Week 12 OR if I lose both games AND Travis and Kim both have at least one loss

Rob is the #5 seed if: I lose both upcoming games AND Kim wins both games OR Travis wins both games

Rob is the #6 seed if: I lose both upcoming games AND Kim and Travis BOTH win both games

Scott possible seeding: #2-7

Scott has yet to play either myself or Ryan again and is currently 1-0 versus both of us, but certainly either tiebreaker could be eliminated with a loss, though since he has a tie that is irrelevant for most purposes. He holds H2H tiebreakers with both Peter and Kim

Scott is the #2 seed if: He wins both games AND Ryan Good loses both games

Scott is the #3 seed if: He wins both games AND Ryan Good wins one game OR if he loses one game AND Rob loses both games AND Travis loses at least one game

Scott is the #4 seed if: He loses to Rob AND beats Ryan OR if he beats Rob AND loses to Ryan AND Rob wins his other game AND Travis loses at least one game. ALSO if he loses both games AND Travis loses both games  AND Jason loses at least one game

Scott is the #5 seed if: He wins one game AND both Rob and Ryan win at least one game AND Travis wins both games. OR if Scott wins no games AND Travis wins both games OR Jason wins both games.

Scott is the #6 seed if: He loses both games AND two of the following happen: Travis wins one game, Jason wins two games, or Kim wins two games.

Scott is the #7 team and out of the playoffs if: He loses both games AND Jason wins both games, Kim wins both games, and Travis wins his game against Drew.

Travis: possible seeding: #3 – 8

Travis, having two ties, wins essentially all win-loss tiebreakers.

Travis is the #3 seed if: He wins both games AND Rob loses both games AND Scott wins no more than one of his remaining games

Travis is the #4 seed if: He wins both games AND Rob wins one game OR Scott wins two games. OR if he wins one game AND Scott loses both games AND Kim AND Jason lose at least one game

Travis is the #5 seed if: He wins one of his remaining games AND ONLY two of the following happen: Scott wins at least one game, Jason wins two games, and Kim wins two games.

Travis is the #6 seed if: He wins one of his remaining games AND Scott wins at least one game AND Jason wins both games AND Kim wins both games. OR if he wins no further games AND Kim loses both games AND Peter loses at least one game (Jason, since he plays Travis in Week 12, would be guaranteed a win in this scenario and would immediately leap-frog Travis)

Travis is the #7 seed if: He loses both remaining games AND Kim wins at least one game OR Peter wins both games

Travis is the #8 seed if: He loses both remaining games AND Kim wins at least one game AND Peter wins both games

Kim: possible seeding: #4 – 8

Kim and her tie LOSES the H2H tiebreaker with Scott (preventing a situation where she could be the #3 seed, as either I will have 8 wins or Scott will have 7 based on the fact that we play each other) but WINS her H2H tiebreaker with Peter.

Kim is the #4 seed if: She wins both games AND Rob OR Scott loses both games AND Travis loses at least one game

Kim is the #5 seed if: She wins both games AND two of the following happen: Rob wins at least one game, Scott wins at least one game, Travis wins both games. OR if she wins one game AND Travis loses both games AND Jason wins only one game.

Kim is the #6 seed if: She wins one game AND Travis wins at least one game OR Jason wins both games.

Kim is the #7 seed if: She wins one game AND Travis wins at least one game AND Jason wins both games. OR if she wins no games AND Jason wins at least one game OR Peter wins both games.

Kim is the #8 seed if: She wins no games AND Jason wins at least one game AND Peter wins both games.

Jason: possible seeding: #4 - 8

Jason has no ties, and thus the only tiebreaker that matters is against myself. I hold the H2H tiebreaker and thus cannot be passed by Jason mathematically.

Jason is the #4 seed if: He wins both his games AND Kim loses at least one game AND Scott loses both games.

Jason is the #5 seed if: He wins both games AND Kim wins both of her games OR Scott wins one game. OR if he wins one game AND Travis and Kim lose both their games AND Peter loses at least one game.

Jason is the #6 seed if: He wins one game AND Travis OR Kim wins at least one game OR Peter wins two games

Jason is the #7 seed if: He wins one game AND only two of the following happen: Travis wins one game, Kim wins at least one game, Peter wins both games. OR if he wins no games AND Peter loses both games.

Jason is the #8 seed if: He wins one game AND Travis wins at least one game AND Kim wins at least one game AND Peter wins both games. OR He loses both games AND Peter wins at least one game.

Peter: possible seeding: #5 - 8

Peter loses his only relevant tiebreakers: a 0-1-1 record to Scott and an 0-1 record with Kim. Peter’s scenarios for a playoff spot are VERY complicated.

Peter is the #5 seed if: He wins both games AND Travis loses both games AND Jason wins no more than one game AND Kim loses both games.

Peter is the #6 seed if: He wins both games AND only one of the following happens: Jason wins both games, Travis wins at least one game, Kim wins at least one game.

Peter is the #7 seed if: He wins both games AND two of the following happen: Jason wins both games, Travis wins at least one game, Kim wins at least one game. OR if he wins one game AND Jason loses both games.

Peter is the #8 seed if: He wins both games AND Jason wins both games AND Travis wins at least one game AND Kim wins at least one game. OR if he wins only one game AND Jason wins at least one game. OR if he loses both games.

Let’s look at the upcoming games and make some silly projections, shall we? These are NOT predictions. They’re based on what is expected to happen based on previous scoring trends. Since chance and luck are huge parts of fantasy football, anything can happen.

Week 12:

Rob vs. Peter. In our previous outing, I won 131 to 53. While I doubt the score will be that different this week, I average 95 to Peter’s 79 points per week, a significant difference. More telling, I think, is the fact that if I played Peter every week, based on my scores in those weeks versus his, I would only win 6/11 times. This matchup is fairly even but leaning in my favor. This loss eliminate him from the playoffs

Donel vs. Kyle. Irrelevant.

Scott vs. Ryan. A good matchup! PPW OF 102.8 vs. 99.9 in Scott’s favor, which is basically a wash. However, H2H week to week Scott would have won only 5/11 games. I’ll give it to Scott due to his slight edge (plus precedence, as he has already beaten Ryan this season)

Drew vs. Kim. Drew’s to lose. He scores 18 more points per game than Kim and certainly should win out. The concern? While Drew scored over 100 in 5 of the first 7 games he has done so only once in the past four. The sun is cooling! The world is coming to an end!

Travis vs. Jason. Roommate Bowl 2011 features two teams who hold each other’s destiny. With a win, Travis, at 6-5-2, has guaranteed himself a playoff spot, as neither Jason nor Peter will be able to catch him. On Jason’s side, a win would allow him to keep pace with Kim in an attempt to slip into one of the final two spots. A loss does not spell certain elimination but certainly makes Week 13 into a mess. Travis outscores Jason 96.5 to 84.2 in an average week, and would have 7-3-1 record against him week to week. Advantage, Travis.

This scenario would lead to this amongst the remaining playoff-possible teams:

1) Drew: 10-1

2) Ryan: 8-4

3) Rob: 8-4

4) Scott: 7-4-1

5) Travis: 6-4-2

6) Kim: 5-6-1

7) Jason: 5-7

8) Peter: 4-7-1

This scenario would lock Travis and Scott into playoff spots and lock Peter out; only Kim/Jason swings would affect the final playoff games, and Jason would have the notably easier game versus Donel. It would also lead to a showdown for the bye week, with both Ryan, Scott, and myself clearly in contention; if Kim were to beat Ryan, the winner of my game with Scott would get a bye.

Question of the Week: Who will have an All-Time Top 10 Offensive Season?

One of the less observed stats I’ve got recorded in the corner of one of those spreadsheets I sent out is a list of the Top 10 scoring seasons since the league began. The number one spot on that list is likely safe for now, as Travis’s 1517 back in Season 2 is untouchable. Drew, the current points leader with 1,181 points would need to average 168 points during the next two games, a score that has never been achieved during the modern-day scoring era.

HOWEVER, there is a chance that multiple teams could make the list in some fashion. The number 10 score is a very obtainable 1279 set by Jason in Season 2. Barring a real collapse, Drew will hit that number. Here’s the top three teams in our league right now:

Drew :1181

Scott: 1131

Ryan: 1099

Realistically, these are the only three teams who might be able to make the Top 10 list. Drew is currently averaging 98 points per game, so if he stays at that pace he will hit 1377 points this season, which would be goo enough for the 5^th spot on the all-time list. Scott, who is averaging 94 points per game, would finish at 1319 at hit the 9^th spot on the list (assuming Drew finishes in front of him). Assuming that Ryan Good does not pass either Scott or Drew in scoring, he would need to hit 1306 points to make the Top 10, which would require 103.5 points per week. Both Scott and Drew are safe bets for the Top 10; Ryan Good is a long shot.

Runner-Up Question of the Week: Who will have an All-Time Bottom 10 Offensive Season?

On the flip side of the other question sits the 921 Ryan Davis put up in Season 1, still to this day the worst season our league has ever seen. That number will likely fall. However, there are multiple teams who are staring the Bottom 10 list in the face. The magic number to beat is 1100, the point total put up by yours truly back in Season 4 that sits squarely in the 10^th spot. There are at least three teams with no chance of beating that number: Kyle, Peter, and Donel.

With two games remaining, Kyle has 726 points, Donel has 853 points, and Peter has 873. Extrapolated out, that would leave each team with 858, 1008, and 1031 points, respectively. That would give Kyle the all-time worst season title. Realistically, Kyle would need about 100 points per week to avoid this, which is unlikely. Donel’s and Peter’s scores would put them at 4^th and 6^th on the all-time worst list.

Fun Fact: 6 of the Top 10 spots on the All-Time list are from the scoring-exaggerated first season. Seven separate teams have hit this list; Travis, Scott, and Jason each made it twice. Teams currently in the league who missed the list? Rob, Donel, Ryan Good, and Kim.

Fun Fact #2: Three of the worst 10 seasons of All-Time are from teams that are no longer active (Ryan Davis, Karen, and Phil). Only Peter, Jason, Scott, Ryan, Donel, Kyle, and myself are on this list, though my likelihood of being on this list at the end of the season is virtually zero.

Lost Bench Points:

Rob: 12 + 13 = 25

Travis: 1 + 0 = 1

Peter: 11 + 0 = 11

Scott: 10 + 4 = 14

Drew: 31 + 15 = 46

Jason: 25 + 22 = 47

Ryan: 31 + 22 = 53

Kyle: 34 + 34 = 68

Donel: 10 + 4 = 14

Kim: 10 + 8 = 18

1) Donel: 77 points ; Last Week 1
2) Travis: 80 points ; Last week 2

3) Peter: 98 points ; Last week 4

4) Scott: 102 points ; Last Week 5
5) Rob: 108 points ; Last Week 3
6) Kim: 119 points ; Last Week 7

7) Drew: 144 points ; Last Week 6
8) Kyle: 188 points ; Last Week 8
9) Ryan: 191 points ; Last Week 9
10) Jason: 213 points ; Last Week 10

Fines!

First, I’ve looked back at the fines from previous weeks and am doing the following:

During Week 9, Kyle started Malcolm Floyd, who had not played all week. His fine is UPHELD.

During Week 9, Scott started Ryan Mathews, who has not practiced all week and was considered highly unlikely to play. This fine is UPHELD.

During Week 9, Donel started Kevin Faulk who was a surprise, last-minute “Out.” This fine is DROPPED.

Week 10 Fines:

Kyle receives a $2 fine for starting Malcolm Floyd, who was listed as doubtful and had not practiced all week.

Kyle receives an additional $2 fine for starting Rian Lindell, who is known to be out for 4-6 weeks with a shoulder injury

Week 11 Fines:

Kyle receives $6 in fines, for Malcom Floyd and Rian Lindell (again), plus Matt Cassel, who is on the IR.

Donel will NOT receive a $2 fine for starting Kevin Faulk, who was declared inactive. He was listed as questionable on Saturday, so given Donel’s dire situation I think it is understandable he would make that gamble.

Fines Totalled:

Kyle: $14

Rob: $4

Jason: $2

Kim: $2

WNQ Week 10: Oh snap, he's back

So hey guys, it’s been awhile.

A long while. And I’m not referring to since the last WNQ, which has been a while, but since I even logged into the league. To all of you surgeons out there (Kyle), I feel your pain. Surgical services are nightmares.
There are a LOT of things that need to be addressed. And I will try to address them all. First, we will bring up the soon-to-be-infamous Defensegate scandal of Week 8.

Jason called to my attention on Sunday morning that he had failed to get a defense, and not from lack of trying. He ran into the classic Saturday nightmare situation where you put in $0 bids for a couple of defenses assuming you’ll get one…and don’t. He asked me if I could add on a defense for him and I said I didn’t think that would be fair…but would be okay doing it if the rest of the managers said it was okay. Jason got some positive responses…but I also got some people saying what’s fair is fair, suck it up. Ultimately he got no defense, and lost by 3 points. For the record, the defenses he was trying to get, the Saints and Bengals, put up 8 and 24 points, respectively. The D/ST he said he would add if given the chance was the Bills, who put up 26. This decision did cost him the game.

So who’s in the right here? I feel for Jason, because that’s a terrible way to lose. HOWEVER, I need to look at this from a fairness perspective. I was equally FREAKED out because I logged in one minute too late on Wednesday to pick up a defense, and knew I’d have to scramble on Saturday. Travis and Jason were also looking for defenses. So I decided to lay down some free-agent cash…$2, to be specific, which won me a defense from the three I tried to get (if I had just let Travis have the Saints, I would have gotten the Bengals instead. Curses!). Travis, clearly also worried about not getting a defense, dropped $1 for the Bengals. Jason got hosed because he only bid on two defenses, and bid $0 for both of them.
Jason is in a particularly hard situation. He’s got 5 FA dollars left. It is hard to justify spending one fifth of your remaining cash on a defense. That being said, I have discussed in depth that I believe Jason to be a wanton early season spender of free agent cash. No one made him drop all those cash bombs for players that both did and did not work out.

Ultimately, I look at the situation and think Jason had ample opportunity to get a D/ST and committed the dual sin of not bidding on enough defenses (when I run into this freak out situation, I bid on 3+, at a minimum) and not bidding anything, essentially being last in line for all defenses. I think the outcome is unfortunate, because no one should lose a game or a playoff spot because of an honest mistake, but rules are rules.

I want to also address want Donel proposed as a solution: a waiver period from Saturday night until Sunday before the first game starts. I think that is a decent solution…as by that point in time I’d expect most people worth a darn would be picked up during the auction. HOWEVER, the ESPN league does not let me set this. What I can potentially do is set up a THIRD free agent auction that ends Sunday at noon. The problem I have with doing this is that we’re going to start running into Thursday and Saturday games, which make this a moot point. I don’t think I care one way or another about this…but what I propose is a vote at the end of the season on this issue, which I think will have clear pluses and minuses. In that regards, I am officially creating a list of Proposals to the Constitution, which I will keep compiled for end of season discussion.

Proposals to the Constitution!:

Extra FA Auction time Sunday at noon to prevent someone from being physically blocked from starting a player at a position
Change the Division names to something better

That’s it right now, but I’m sure there will be more.

Also, then there’s the question of league fees, which, technically, Jason would owe due to not starting a D/ST. It’s a pittingly $2, and not going to break the bank, but if Jason wants to appeal I’m certainly open to discussion, because I think that is a reasonable fine to dispute given the full circumstances.

I, however, will be paying my $4 for my wretched managerial performance this week. I will, however, take this time to SHAME you all, as my 7 person team had the fifth highest score of the week.

Fines, at this time:
Rob: $4
Jason: $2
Kyle: $4. I’m instituting a $2 penalty for starting Malcolm Floyd despite his being out. I DO NOT have full details on when he was declared out, and this charge may be dropped pending my investigation
Scott: $2. I’m institution a $2 penalty for starting Ryan Mathews despite his being out. I DO NOT have full details on when he was declared out, and this charge may be dropped pending my investigation
Donel: $2 for Kevin Faulk this week. I believe  this was a very late developing event so this fine will likely be dropped.
Kim: $2. Cedric Benson was suspended the week you played him. This fine is sticking.

Okay, in the meantime, there are some league-related things I think warrant mentioning. I’m not going to dwell on Week 8, but let me send big props to Kyle for recording that first win. It’s hard to have a team you didn’t pick yourself and stay up with it, but I believe he’s trying. Now if Drew can just have his first loss I’ll be thrilled.

I also want to address the divisions. When I made these, I expected them to be fairly even. That has not played out. The Baker division has three teams over .500 with at least a 6-3 record; the F/F division just has Drew. It is not unrealistic at this point to believe the Baker division will field 4 playoff teams. Peter is one game behind Jason and holds the definitive  tie-breaker (head to head win, this week), so if he can keep up with Jason this season he will beat him to a playoff spot. He’s also just 1.5 games behind Travis, so one hot streak could carry him through him, as well. Kyle will not make the playoffs, but that’s cool. He and Donel were appropriately placed in separate divisions.

Okay, now for the good stuff…
Here’s what I had to say about Week 7:

Some records were set last week, which warrant acknowledgement.

27. That’s the number of points Peter put up this week, tying the all-time weekly low score set by Karen way back in Season 1. With that loss, Peter’s team is not only yelling “help, we’re dying,” but he also claims 2 of the 3 worst weeks ever. Peter also scored 37 points back in Season 4.  How hard is it to score 27 points? Well, that’s just 3 points per player. Even a bad team having a terrible week can usually still muster 40 points because SOMEONE must be able to at least score a touchdown. Peter’s high-scored, Philip Rivers, is the ONLY person on his team to score a touchdown…and then he nullified it with two INTs. Congratulations, Peter, you’re giving Kyle hope for a win this season.

40. That’s the number of points Arian Foster put up for me this week. Yes, that’s right, Arian Foster beat Peter’s team by 13 points. That’s his second time over 40 points in a week, and only the third time ever.
18: Looking at the bright side of a dark, dark season, Kyle’s kicker, Olindo Mare, put up 18 points this week, landing himself a spot in the top 10 Kicker performances ever. His performance gave Kyle a chance against Jason this week, and looking at his bench, he almost pulled out a win this week. In general it was a great week for Kickers, as Ryan’s Mason Crosby also posted this number

-7. That’s Kyle’s defensive score this week. Oh right, that’s why he didn’t win.

31. It’s not a top-10 worthy achievement, but damn if DeMarco Murray didn’t say “hey, I’m ready for the big time” in his debut.

33. Drew Brees this week for Ryan. That makes his third entry on the list, to which I can only say: yawn.

Some other records during the past two weeks:
Vincent Jackson, Week 9, 32 points, enters into a tie for 5th place WR [Donel]
Lions D/ST, Week 8, 29 points, enters into a tie for 3rd place D/ST [Donel]
Bengals D/ST, Week 8, 26 points, enters into a tie for 10th place D/ST [Travis]
David Ackers, Week 9, 16 points, enters into a tie for 10th place K [Kim]

Lost bench points!
It’s been three weeks, so there is a lot of data to add to this list…
Rob: 3 + 7 + 20 = 30
Donel: 0 + 10 + 4 = 14
Jason: 34 + 8 + 22 = 64
Kyle: 20 + 0 + 4 = 24
Travis: 14 + 10 + 16 = 40
Ryan: 14 + 1 + 47 = 62
Drew: 1 + 0 + 19 = 20
Peter: 3 + 13 + 29 = 45
Kim: 7 + 4 + 0 = 11
Scott: 13 + 0 + 5 = 18

1) Donel: 63 points ; Last Week 3
2) Travis: 79 points ; Last week 1
3) Rob: 83 points ; Last Week 4
4) Peter: 87 points ; Last week 2
5) Scott: 88 points ; Last Week 7
6) Drew: 98 points ; Last Week 6
7) Kim: 101 points ; Last Week 8
8) Kyle: 120 points ; Last Week 9
9) Ryan: 138 points ; Last Week 5
10) Jason: 166 points ; Last Week 10

That’s all I can make happen this week. I’ve got to go operate on brains. Hopefully I will be seeing many of you in Ann Arbor next weekend.