After an extended absence, I have returned! Of course, no one gives a shit about if I'm back in the real world; you only care if I'm writing about fantasy football. And I am!
In fact, since we are in the home stretch, things are really starting to heat up, and there is much to talk about.
This is mildly complicated by the fact that Lori's family is in town and we are currently at the beach. However, I have no qualms with finding excuses to not hang out with her parents, so that is only more motivation for me to get back into the swing of things.
However, I don't have all of my references, so no records will be advertised this week.
The Playoff Clusterfuck
What a mess. It's Week 11 and we have 5 teams at 6-4 and 4 at 5-5. In fact, absolutely no teams are statistically eliminated from the playoffs, though one could argue both Ryan Davis and Kyle are spiritually, emotionally, and/or mentally eliminates.
I'm going to touch on this a bit later, but I have to wonder if this has to do with the 12-team nature of our league. This is our first year with 12 active players (I don't think anyone can argue Jon Godin was 'active' in his only appearance last season), and the dilution of talent in the free agent pool is palpable. I didn't realize how important the draft would be; I have exactly one potential impact player on my team who I did not draft, and since I'm referring to Nick Foles, the term impact player seems a stretch. Since our rosters are so thin, we are totally at the mercy of bye weeks and injuries, leading to more ups and downs.
I have a theory on this I'm going to explore in the coming weeks, but I'll touch on it now. Could more teams have led to more Score Volatility (SV)? I'm postulating the smaller available talent pool has led to more drastic ups and downs for the teams in our league; I know I have personally gone from a 100 pt/wk team to a 70 pt/wk team in relatively short order. I'm going to crunch the numbers and get back to you.
I'm going to use a mildly objective yet still totally subjective metric to evaluate each of the teams' chances of making the playoffs, starting with our (rapidly fading) leader. Each metric is based off a 5 point scale.
Peter Emily
Wk 1-10 Positioning: 5
Ease of Schedule: 2
The Team: 4
Trajectory: 1
Rob's Subjective Score: 4
Total: 16
Do you guys remember when Peter was 6-1? It seems like a long time ago, doesn't it. Peter is on a three game losing streak, each one more ugly than the last.
He still maintains a maximum score for positioning, because he still holds all tie-breakers. Not only is he in the massive tie for the best record, but in an interesting twist of fate, three of the teams he is tied with are amongst the five lowest scoring offenses in the league, meaning he holds a safe lead over them, PF-wise, should they all win out.
Schedule-wise, however, Peter actually has one of the toughest schedules. This week he faces Drew, who has scored over 100 points each of the past two weeks, though he does have only the 7th rated offense. He follows up Drew with Kim, who has won three straight with at least 90 points each time. Scott recently assessed this schedule as easy, but I disagree. However, he does finish up with Ryan, 'Cupcake,' Davis, which should give him an edge. 7-win teams always make the playoffs, and he is staring one down already.
I like his team, and rate it highly. His players generally do well, though he has some notable bombs as you get into his flex/TE position, I think he has the goods to pull this out.
Peter gets the lowest possible trajectory score for reasons that should be obvious. Peter was recently whining (shocking, I know) about how well his opponents were doing against him over the past three weeks: 99, 131, and 115 points. He failed to point out, however, that in two of those losses he scored 72 and 81 points. By his own metric he was supposed to lose those games anyway. Also, you won't hear much sympathy for Peter from Scott, Jason, Drew, Davis, or myself, because we have all had more points scored on us Han Peter has.
As much as it pains me to say it, however, I still think Peter is in, hence his high subjective score. When you're the #1 team we three to play, you've got to try to miss the playoffs, and while Peter certainly is trying. We all know he doesn't have the drive to pull a six game losing streak.
Ryan Good
Wk 1-10 Positioning: 4
Ease of Schedule: 1
Trajectory: 3
The Team: 3
Rob's Subjective Score: 4
Total: 15
Ryan is another solid bet for the playoffs, though he perhaps has the hardest road. As one of the only 6-4 teams with a respectable PF, he's in a good position to make the playoffs if he gets one more win.
But can he get it? He faces two 6-4 teams in the next two weeks and finishes up with Scott, one of the deadliest of the .500 teams. There is no game on Good's schedule that screams easy win. And while he had been overachieving of late, his poor showing last week gives me concern.
Just take a look at his team: it looks like a Rob Huang team circa 2009. A terrible QB (Eli Manning? Is that the best you can muster?) flanked my a group of middling Patriots. I'll admit. Goldie's team has plenty of upside (I like his WR corp, generally), but it is neither brilliant nor terrible.
But let's not forget superstitions! Only the dumb bet against Ryan during odd years! While Ryan has never made the playoffs during an even-year, he has never missed during the odds! Hence, from my standpoint. He's a no-banner.
Kim
Wk 1-10 Positioning: 3
Ease of Schedule: 2
Trajectory: 4
The Team: 2
Rob's Subjective Score: 3
Total: 14
While I am loathe to predict any 6-win teams to miss the playoffs, Kim has a chance to do just that.
She is not a strong 6-4; her 887 PF is the fifth worst. She also has to face Peter (fading, but still formidable) and Travis (surging and formidable) in the weeks to come, though she does have the benefit of playing Kyle this week. But lest we forget, Kyle has a top-6 PF, and is no pushover.
That being said, Kim is one a hot streak including some absolutely ridiculous performances. I worry though, looking at her team, that she might be a bit too Cam Newton dependent. I'm not sure if he can carry her all the way, but a playoff spot is a reasonable assumption.
Donel
Wk 1-10 Positioning: 3
Ease of Schedule: 3
Trajectory: 2
The Team: 3
Rob's Subjective Score: 3
Total: 14 (but I'd give Kim the tiebreak)
I think this might be subjective, but I think Donel's team sucks. Lets break this down.
His PF is bad. Not Dane bad, but still bad. He hasn't scored consistently and I have the feeling that the soft part of his schedule is behind him. With machines with Drew, Ryan Good, and Jason on the schedule, I would only predict one win (Jason), though that matchup is still a bit of a toss up.
But his team! So terrible! The last time Donel broke 84 points without Andre Johnson tossing up 40 was way back in Week 5. This team is terrible, but he has enough potential explorers that it balances out some. Also: nice job trading Luck and keeping Brady. That's worked out.
Dane
Wk 1-10 Positioning: 3 (I'm tempted to give him a 2, but that would be crazy)
Ease of Schedule: 2
Trajectory: 3
The Team: 2
Rob's Subjective Score: 2
Total: 12
We all know how I feel about Dane's team. But either Dane will go down as one of the luckiest seasons in our leagues history, or he will soon fall apart. I choose the latter.
Dane is 6 points for away from having both the best record and the lowest PF in the league. I don't think this has ever happened ever, during any point in the season, let alone with three weeks to go.
Dane doesn't score points, but he plays everyone during their worst weeks, which is infuriating. I'm also mad that his RGIII pick ended up working out, so that's probably where some of the spite comes from. Good luck against Ryan Good, Scott, and Jason. You'll need it.
Travis
Wk 1-10 Positioning: 3
Ease of Schedule: 3
Trajectory: 5
The Team: 5
Rob's Subjective Score: 5
Total:21
Travis is happening. We had our chance to stop him and we blew it. 2nd-4th place finish.
Scott
Wk 1-10 Positioning: 3
Ease of Schedule: 3 (without Good, it would be a 4-5)
Trajectory: 3
The Team: 4
Rob's Subjective Score: 4
Total: 15
Scott has put together two scores over 110 in the past three weeks. He has both Dane (Overrated team número uno) and myself (Underachieving team número uno) on his schedule. All of his players seem to be doing well. 7 wins are his destiny, and eight are possible.
Jason
Wk 1-10 Positioning: 2
Ease of Schedule: 3
Trajectory: 4
The Team: 3
Rob's Subjective Score: 3
Total: 15
We had the chance to stop him. We really did. We snuck up on him in the Wal-Mart parking lot. We had him shot four times in the thorax, and he was helpless on the ground. But instead of firing the last shot into his head to rid the world of his tyranny forever, we thought to ourselves, "this is too easy. I want to enjoy this." So we went to the car to get an axe, but by the time we got back had crawled across the lot, found a fallen, pistol, and blew our brains out. damn you, Jason Feuerman. Damn you all to hell.
Drew:
Wk 1-10 Positioning: 2
Ease of Schedule: 2
Trajectory: 3
The Team: 4
Rob's Subjective Score: 3
Total: 14
I'm very conflicted about Drew. On basically every metric, I think his team is just okay. But he is getting results! He's scoring points and getting wins. His biggest detriment is that he's in 9th place, and he needs other people to lose in order to make the playoffs.
