WNQ Week 1: A Very Detailed Draft Analysis and Other Musings

WNQ Week 1: A Very Detailed Draft Analysis and Other Musings

In a certain sense, our Fantasy Football Draft is like Christmas for adults. While mostly an abstract concept for the majority of the year, as it approaches there is an unrelenting sense of anticipation. Though we might spend our free time in hundreds of different ways during eleven months of the year, for the weeks before we are solely focused on what we want for Draft Day. Is it a shiny Adrian Petersen, wrapped in a surgically repaired ACL? Perhaps a stocking full of Patriots WRs?

When the day arrives, we tear into our presents like toddlers, ravenously consuming player after player, always wanting more. And despite all the anticipation, when the draft is finished, there is an emptiness. It could never be as good as we hoped it would be, and even though our bounty was rich, we never get everything that we asked for.

I’ve spent a lot of time over the years looking at the draft strategies of our league in the abstract. I look at general trends of who picks what for how much and make some fairly broad judgments and assumptions. But you all know me. I love statistics, and this is something that has been sorely lacking in my draft analysis. My reasons for this are many, but ultimately it came down to two factors: a lack of a coherent modality by which to compare drafts and a general sense of ennui. However, with the end of my residency (!) and a thorough consideration of how to form this post, I will now start a (hopefully) annual WNQ I call Judging Christmas.

Details, Details, Details

Here’s a short explanation of how this is going to work.

First, I will go through the top picks by position and how much has been paid for them, as well as by who. I’ll also use an index I (and probably others) refer to as RVI – the Relative Value Index. The RVI basically judges the amount of points you’ll be getting per dollar based off 2013 predictions. This cannot really factor in players who over or underperform, but nothing can and it is stupid to try to do so. Any judgment of draft at this point in time is all speculative, but even if someone gets lucky when, say, Lamar Millar blows up, that doesn’t make the draft strategy of spending big bucks on him sound. It just means karma loves you.

In the past, I’ve used a similar metric to this that people found confusing, so I’m going to be clear about what it means. A high RVI means you’re getting a lot of points for very little money, while a low RVI means the opposite. With the idea that spending money in one place takes it away from another, this means that low RVIs NEGATIVELY impact your ability to get quality players in other positions. While it is easy to see how low costs for highly ranked players is a positive, RVI provides a quantification for how much value you are getting for a player, which I find helpful. I should point out that it is NOT helpful alone. If you pay $1 for anyone, the RVI will be through the roof. RVI is helpful at comparing similar, sought-after players, not trash.

During this, I will really only focus on the skill positions (ie, no D/ST, no Kickers), and I’m using the highest drafted/most paid for approach to decipher who your team might be “starting.” I recognize that this is subject to change, but no one drafted Ben Tate and expected him to be their starter…I don’t care what happens during the season. In doing such, my list will only go down as far as the last starting player drafted (example, in QBs, I will extend my list only to Andy Dalton, Travis’ starting QB. Other QBs below him were drafted but that is irrelevant to determining the baseline strength of a team, since no QB2 is contributing any points in theory).

*I say mistakes, but as well all know, there are multiple strategies and a lot of acceptable options in how to draft…and ultimately it doesn’t matter how you draft, just if you win. I’m judging people against expert opinion, so take it or leave it.

The Quarterbacks

Rank	Name	Proj. Pts	Pts / Wk	Bought By	Amount Paid ($)	RVI
1	Aaron Rodgers	352	20.70588235	Dane	47	7.489361702
2	Drew Brees	334	19.64705882	Drew	46	7.260869565
3	Peyton Manning	324	19.05882353	Scott	41	7.902439024
4	Tom Brady	325	19.11764706	Donel	31	10.48387097
5	Cam Newton	323	19	Kim	24	13.45833333
6	Matt Ryan	314	18.47058824	Rob	15	20.93333333
7	Colin Kaepernick	306	18	Kyle	17	18
8	Robert Griffin III	268	15.76470588	Dane*	16	16.75
9	Matthew Stafford	288	16.94117647	Peter	19	15.15789474
10	Russell Wilson	280	16.47058824	Ryan D	15	18.66666667
11	Andrew Luck	280	16.47058824	Donel*	9	31.11111111
12	Tony Romo	284	16.70588235	Ryan G	18	15.77777778
13	Eli Manning	232	13.64705882	Jason	4	58
14	Ben Roesthlisberger	221	13	Kim*	1	221
15	Michael Vick	198	11.64705882	Ryan G*	8	24.75
16	Sam Bradford	206	12.11764706	Jason*	1	206
17	Jay Cutler	200	11.76470588	Kyle*	2	100
18	Joe Flacco	201	11.82352941	Kim*	4	50.25
19	Andy Dalton	210	12.35294118	Travis	1	210

* = Second on depth chart QB

Winners: Kim, Rob

Losers: Peter, Ryan Good

WTF: Dane, Travis

First, let me say that I’m flabbergasted by the fact that I had to go down to 19 in order to find everyone’s starting QB. Let be realistic: picking up a backup QB for more than a couple of bucks is ridiculous. Here’s what Eric Karabell has to say about it…

In a 12-team league, I’m a bit more apt to add one of the quarterbacks ranked in the QB2 range just in case, because if there’s an injury to your reliable starter there’s a lesser player pool to replace him with. Then again, would I be drafting someone we know, like Flacco or Dalton, for that role? Or a higher-upside option, someone who has yet to reach what is frankly an average ceiling? I’d likely go upside, if taking a reserve quarterback at all, because by Halloween there will be several one-week fill-in types such as Matt Schaub out there in free agency, not to mention in-season surprises like Russell Wilson. There always are.

There’s amazing QB depth this year, so the fact that two people picked two QB1s (Dane, Donel) and four others a straight up QB2 (Kim picked up two of there) is crazy.

Look at the points per week column for a minute. This basically determines an average for how many points each of us will get from our QB per week. The differences amongst the top 7 players is about 2 total points. Granted, two is not zero, but it’s a big jump from $47 (the amount paid for Rodgers’ 20.7 points) and $15 (Matt Ryan’s 18.4) or $17 (Kaepernick’s 18). I’m not saying Rodgers is a bad pick, but with so much depth for elite QBs AND for almost-elite (12 QBs with 16+ points per week), it just doesn’t make sense to draft a second QB.

Let’s take Dane as an example. He spent $47 on Aaron Rodgers…and then $16 on RG-III. Tell me, can anyone think of ANY scenario when you wouldn’t start Aaron Rodgers, besides being sidelined by injury? There is literally no matchup in which I wouldn’t take Rodgers. Essentially, Dane paid $16 for a bye week. QBs get injured sometimes, but typically are the most durable players on a team; it makes more sense to handcuff a RB. If anyone is going to be injured this season, it’s RG-III. Dumb move.

Ditto for Donel. Luck starts over Brady zero times. When I see someone spend big (or semi-big) money on a backup QB they’ll never play, I just add that total to how much they spent on their starter, because its like you’re pissing it away. Brady at $31 was a steal for Donel. At $40 (adding the $9 he spent on Luck), it’s just a pickup at cost, essentially.

I talked before about how minor a 1-2 points difference per week can be. 6-8 points is a whole other ballgame, and that is where we find Travis (Andy Dalton) and Jason (Eli Manning). I know what went wrong here. Both Travis and Jason are very logical managers with a history of excellence. They employed a draft strategy I have employed nearly every year in the past: when the top QBs are off the board, save money for RBs/WRs and get a lower tier QB1. This year it’s a smart play, since QBs 8-12 are all essentially identical. Where Jason and Travis went wrong is overestimating our league’s intelligence about the QB situation. We’re coming off a year where there were a few elite QBs and then a large drop off. Well-read managers knew this year was different. TMR says it better than I ever could, so here:

This season, we no longer have to wonder if Peyton Manning can successfully come back from neck surgery, if Cam Newton was a fluke, or if young running quarterbacks like Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick can play in the NFL. Add a very successful rookie campaign for Andrew Luck and Matt Ryan taking another step forward and you've got unbelievable depth at the position, and that's before you even get to Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo or Ben Roethlisberger, all of whom averaged 16 fantasy points per game last year. In fact, 10 different quarterbacks averaged 17 or so fantasy points per game last year. Two more averaged around 16 and No. 13, Andy Dalton, averaged 14.9. Seven others averaged 14 points a game. The quarterback position is the deepest I've ever seen it for fantasy purposes.

Travis and Jason learned the lesson I have learned many, many times: our league drafts erratically. I could put a mountain of evidence down about the benefits of picking up more RB2s/3s and people would still get in bidding wars for a backup QB. Why people, why? This is the reason I ended up with Tim Tebow for back to back seasons, and the reason Travis has Andy Dalton.

Now to the clearer winners and losers. I think everyone can agree that Matt Ryan for $15 is a steal. I don’t credit myself for this. It all ended up a timing issue. The Top 5 QBs were off the board, the best RBs had been had, and we were in the midst of a run on WRs. Since I hadn’t burned any money on a QB, I picked up three top 30(ish) receivers for about $60 total. Most everyone else had 0-1 WR and there was a mad rush to get the best available. When Matt Ryan came up, everyone else was trying to fill out their WR (and in a few cases, their RB) spots and were not looking for a QB. So he went up and I was largely unchallenged. If he had been nominated twenty spots later he would have hit mid-20s, since that is when the QB panic started to set in. I got lucky.

I hesitate to call Kim a winner because she picked up three QBs. But she paid $17 less for Cam Newton than Scott paid for Peyton Manning, who are projected to be FF equivalents this year. Again, timing was an issue; instead of during the WR rush, Cam Newton went up during the RB rush and the rest of us were waiting for our chance at Giovani Bernard. Also, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were still on the board, so the people waiting to get a top QB passed.

It’s hard for me to call Peter and Ryan Good losers, since, really, Travis and Jason are the big losers of the QB sweepstakes. But in terms of draft value, they had a similar problem. As I mentioned before, QBs 8-12 are, statistically, identical. They’re all within one FF point per week of each other—half a point if you take out the outlier, RGIII. Yet somehow Ryan Davis and Donel managed to get QBs from this block at an RVI of 31 and 18, respectively, while Ryan Good and Peter only hit 15. This, in short, means they overpaid. Ryan Good’s was a desperation issue; Romo was the last man standing, so to speak, and he knew he was in a hurt locker if he let him slip away. Peter, I must presume, reads a lot of TMR and believes he’ll progress back to the mean. Either way, there were better values available.

The Running Backs

Rank	Name	Proj. Pts	Pts / Wk	Bought By	Amount Paid ($)	RVI
1	Adrian Peterson	279	16.41176471	Peter	66	4.227272727
2	Arian Foster	261	15.35294118	Ryan D	59	4.423728814
3	Marshawn Lynch	233	13.70588235	Kim	60	3.883333333
4	Ray Rice	232	13.64705882	Donel	59	3.93220339
5	Doug Martin	226	13.29411765	Ryan G	53	4.264150943
6	Jamaal Charles	228	13.41176471	Ryan D	53	4.301886792
7	CJ Spiller	227	13.35294118	Dane	50	4.54
8	Trent Richardson	226	13.29411765	Rob	50	4.52
9	Alfred Morris	219	12.88235294	Drew	53	4.132075472
10	LeSean McCoy	200	11.76470588	Kyle	49	4.081632653
11	Steven Jackson	192	11.29411765	Jason	45	4.266666667
12	Matt Forte	182	10.70588235	Travis	41	4.43902439
13	Stevan Ridley	181	10.64705882	Ryan G	41	4.414634146
14	Frank Gore	178	10.47058824	Peter	36	4.944444444
15	Chris Johnson	172	10.11764706	Travis	38	4.526315789
16	Maurice JonesDrew	172	10.11764706	Jason	40	4.3
17	David Wilson	164	9.647058824	Scott	31	5.290322581
18	Darren McFadden	168	9.882352941	Kyle	22	7.636363636
19	Eddie Lacy	159	9.352941176	Dane	30	5.3
20	DeMarco Murray	151	8.882352941	Donel	19	7.947368421
21	Darren Sproles	154	9.058823529	Rob	14	11
22	Reggie Bush	161	9.470588235	Scott	24	6.708333333
23	Lamar Miller	154	9.058823529	Scott (F)	32	4.8125
24	Montee Ball	142	8.352941176	Peter (F)	21	6.761904762
25	Chris Ivory	128	7.529411765	Scott*	13	9.846153846
26	Ryan Mathews	140	8.235294118	Drew	14	10
27	Ahmad Bradshaw	128	7.529411765	Kim	17	7.529411765
28	DeAngelo Williams	128	7.529411765	Travis*	12	10.66666667
29	Giovani Bernard	129	7.588235294	Travis	25	5.16
30	BenJarvus GreenEllis	127	7.470588235	Kyle (F)	10	12.7
31	Rashard Mendenhall	133	7.823529412	Kim*	10	13.3
32	Shane Vereen	128	7.529411765	Rob*	6	21.33333333
33	Daryl Richardson	130	7.647058824	Jason	25	5.2
34	Vick Ballard	106	6.235294118	Kim	13	8.153846154
35	Andre Brown	113	6.647058824	Rob*	10	11.3
36	Mark Ingram	103	6.058823529	Drew*	8	12.875
37	Isaiah Pead	75	4.411764706	Kim*	2	37.5
38	Le'Veon Bell	76	4.470588235	Ryan D*	6	12.66666667
53	Mike Tolbert	81	4.764705882	Dane (F)	1	81

F = predicted Flex starter based on value

* = Bench RB based on value

Winning Decisions: Peter (Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore), Dane (CJ Spiller) Rob (Trent Richardson, Darren Sproles, Shane Vereen), Drew (Ryan Mathews)

Bad Decisions: Kim (Marshawn Lynch), Donel (Ray Rice), Scott (David Wilson, Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller)

WTF: Travis (Giovani Bernard), Jason (Daryl Richardson), Dane (Mike Tolbert)

This chart is a little bit harder to interpret, so let me explain a bit before I get into the analysis.

RBs 1-16 on this list are what I’d call solid RB1s. Not all of these RBs are created equal (given the six point different between AP at #1 and MJD at #16, we can all likely agree on this), but they are all put up or shut up players that we expect big money to be shelled out for. Since the overall amount of points scored by an RB is lower than QBs, the RVI needed to designate good value is lower. Generally speaking, an RVI less than 4 for an RB1 is considered a “poor value” pick, while an RVI approaching 5 (and, generally, higher than 4.5) is considered a “good value” pick. Between 4 and 4.5 is considered an average pickup based on value.

RBs 17-24, as well as 26, are RB2s. The money spent on RB2s is disproportionately less compared to RB1s, despite the fact that, in some circumstances, their overall point value is nearly identical. They are all expected to score about 8 points per game or more. Because the spending on these RBs drops so dramatically, a “good value” pick has an RVI of 10 or more, while a poor value pick sits below 5. Since the range is larger, an RVI in the 5-7 range is still pretty poor, while 8-10 is still pretty good.

RBs 25 and 27-36 are RB3s/Good Flex Options. They all sit at 6-7 points per week and represent the third tier of RBs. They are decent flex options. An RVI below 10 generally represents a “poor value” pick, while an RVI above 20 represents a “good value” pick, with an appropriate gradation in between.

All other RBs are Prize Claw RBs. They are below 5 points per week and generally poor choices to start at any point in time (based on pre-season value). A few of these RBs will be elevated to starting status, but the majority of them will be trash the entire season. They’re like the stuffed animals in the Prize Claw machines you see at super markets. Drop the claw down and select one at random. You might get that awesome NFL replica football with Tom Brady’s face on it, but you’re probably going to pick up some moldy stuffed snake.

Now, on with the show.

While I will maintain that Peter sucks at everything, I am extremely impressed at his RB selection. While no one would call AP a steal at $66, he is in fact a bargain given the fact that Marshawn Lynch and Ray Rice were taken at $6 and $7 less, despite the fact that AP is predicted to put up 3 more points per week. Frank Gore is the real prize in my eyes, though. Peter not only got a second RB1, but Gore had the highest RVI of any projected RB1 at 4.94. RBs are expensive and hard to come by, but somehow Peter managed to get two bargains.

Dane, other the other hand, is a split decision for me. He did manage to get CJ Spiller for $50 and an RVI of 4.54, the highest of any of the Elite RB1s (defined by 13+ points per week). This was smart money for a possibly top-5 RB when all is said and done. However, Dane also managed to end up with a final lineup that includes Mike Tolbert as his best Flex option. Mike Tolbert! He’s a full 19 positions lower than the next projected starting RB on the board. As you’ll notice on the chart I had to skip a huge amount of players to even get to him, mostly because of general ennui. Dane budgeting = poor.

To continue my praise of myself, I would like to pat myself on the back and applaud my frugal, smart decision making on the RB side. I ended up with an RB1 (Richardson) whom I got for the second best RVI amongst Elites. My RB2, Darren Sproles, had an RVI of 11, the best for RB2s (even though I hate Darren Sproles, this was a bargain on paper. I am sure I will live to regret it). Finally, I’d like to point out how ridiculous it is that Shane Vereen went to me for $6. He is predicted to put up about 7.5 points per game. You know who else is project to put up that amount? Ahmad Bradshaw (sold for $17), Giovani Bernard (sold for $25), and Daryl Richardson (also for $25). I’m not actually saying these players will pan out, but you can’t argue that I got them for a steal. The value is really only impressive because both Travis and Jason had WTF moments with their Flex pickups. I recognize the early hype surrounding these players (perhaps Bernard >>> Richardson), but 9 players ranked above Bernard went for less; 12 players above Richardson did.

I also but give credit where credit is due to Drew for his Ryan Mathews pickup. An 8.2 pt/wk RB at $14 doesn’t seem like a great deal until you realize players like Eddie Lacy were going to Dane for more than double in order to get 1 more point per week. Shame, Dane. Shame.

General Boos go to Donel and Kim, who both demonstrated poor money management with their pick-ups of Marshawn Lynch and Ray Rice. It is relatively easy to get caught up in the swing of early purchases, especially when your budget seems infinite and other players (Peterson, Foster) are going for similar amounts. What’s important to note, however, is that the drop off from Foster (the #2 overall RB) to Lynch and Rice (#3 and #4 respectively) is almost 2 points per week. When Arian Foster goes for $59, it does not make sense to pay the same amount for players that have such a large talent gap! These draft choices smell of desperation and, in Kim’s case especially, blind homer-ism.

In my humble opinion, the biggest overall loser of the RB draft is Scott. He made a critical error in missing the run on RB1s and ended up in a desperate RB conundrum early. He did what any owner in his situation needs to do: stock up on RB2s. While I can’t fault him on this (would anyone else not try to snatch up all possible RBs with upside?), he ended up with poor overall RB value that seemed to hang over him the rest of the draft, where his lack of funds let to some questionable pick ups.

Scott paid $31 for David Wilson (RVI 5.29), $24 for Reggie Bush (RVI 6.71), and $32 for Lamar Miller (RVI 4.81). These are 3 of the 4 lowest RVIs from the RB2 group, with only Dane’s Eddie Lacy (RVI 5.3) as lowly valued. How did this happen?

Let’s break it down.  Scott was the last manager to successfully draft a player, starting with Blair Walsh (K) are 24. Remember, while we occasionally go crazy and throw out kickers early, generally speaking all of the top RBs (and the elite WR/QB/TE) are off the board before the second round. So with Scott failing to progressed out of the official second round with anyone other than a kicker, he, by definition, failed to get any players at the highest tier.

He finally picked up David Wilson at pick 25. $31 did not seem like much, since LeSean McCoy had gone for $49 three picks earlier (in between? Two more kickers). Scott heard the footsteps of all the RBs being gobbled away and went big. While I’m not saying $49 for McCoy was a good deal, he’s worth more than two more points per game than Wilson, and still on the board were Gore, Chris Johnson, and essentially seven other players who were FF equivalents to Wilson, and all of whom went for less. This pick’s problem: panic.

By the time Reggie Bush came around at pick 49, a run on RB2s had already started, and many top WRs were coming off the board. This put the remaining RB2s at a premium and Scott decided to wade back into the pool at exactly the wrong time. Also, I’m sure Scott’s homer nature got the best of him, and he simply had to have Reggie Bush.

The Lamar Miller pick I find a little more puzzling. In no world do I see Lamar Miller being worth $32. This move was pure desperation. Already frustrated with two sub-par starters, Scott knew he needed more quality RBs. He picked up Chris Ivory cheaply. A general panic formed around the mid fifties when 5 top WRs and the last remains of the RBs were gobbled up. Lamar Miller was kind of the last man standing for reasonable RB options, and Scott knew he needed him. Scott is kind of a magnet for bidding wars, and when people began to fight him for it, he knew he had to stick it out.

Scott spent $110 on RBs. And they’re all terrible.

The Wide Receivers

Rank	Name	Proj. Pts	Pts / Wk	Bought By	Amount Paid ($)	RVI
1	Calvin Johnson	236	13.88235294	Jason	45	5.244444444
2	AJ Green	201	11.82352941	Kyle	44	4.568181818
3	Dez Bryant	202	11.88235294	Kim	40	5.05
4	Brandon Marshall	196	11.52941176	Travis	35	5.6
5	Julio Jones	186	10.94117647	Dane	34	5.470588235
6	Demayrius Thomas	180	10.58823529	Drew	34	5.294117647
7	Roddy White	177	10.41176471	Rob	27	6.555555556
8	Vincent Jackson	175	10.29411765	Rob	24	7.291666667
9	Andre Johnson	177	10.41176471	Donel	31	5.709677419
10	Randall Cobb	171	10.05882353	Jason	27	6.333333333
11	Larry Fitzgerald	167	9.823529412	Kyle	28	5.964285714
12	Wes Welker	154	9.058823529	Rob (F)	19	8.105263158
13	Victor Cruz	152	8.941176471	Peter	20	7.6
14	Marques Colston	150	8.823529412	Ryan D	18	8.333333333
15	Reggie Wayne	149	8.764705882	Ryan D	19	7.842105263
16	Mike Wallace	154	9.058823529	Scott	19	8.105263158
17	Danny Amendola	115	6.764705882	Drew (F)	15	7.666666667
18	Hakeem Nicks	124	7.294117647	Drew	18	6.888888889
19	Steve Smith	137	8.058823529	Travis	11	12.45454545
20	Eric Decker	134	7.882352941	Peter	15	8.933333333
21	Dwayne Bowe	132	7.764705882	Ryan G	20	6.6
22	James Jones	146	8.588235294	Kim	16	9.125
23	Antonio Brown	134	7.882352941	Ryan G	13	10.30769231
24	Jordy Nelson	134	7.882352941	Peter*	9	14.88888889
25	Pierre Garcon	123	7.235294118	Donel	11	11.18181818
26	Cecil Shorts	131	7.705882353	Ryan G	6	21.83333333
27	DeSean Jackson	130	7.647058824	Donel*	6	21.66666667
28	Torrey Smith	138	8.117647059	Donel	12	11.5
29	Greg Jennings	122	7.176470588	Ryan D (F)	8	15.25
30	Tavon Austin	119	7	Scott	8	14.875
42	Josh Gordon	118	6.941176471	Dane	7	16.85714286

F = predicted Flex starter based on value

* = Bench WR based on value

Winners: Rob (Roddy White [ankle not withstanding], Vincent Jackson, Wes Welker], Jason (Calvin Johnson), Travis (Steve Smith), Peter (Jordy Nelson), Ryan Good (Cecil Shorts), Donel (DeSean Jackson, to a lesser extent Pierre Garcon)

Losers: Ryan Good (Dwayne Bowe, Antonio Brown)

WTF: Dane (Josh Gordon)

Speaking of difficult to interpret charts, this is just about the most complicated. Since the majority of the WRs (after the top 10 or so) are functionally equivalent, it’s kind of a judgment call as to who is better or worse. The official numbered ranking seems irrelevant, especially when players like Amendola (ranked #17) have lower predicted points than Josh Gordon (predicted #42). For WRs, it’s easier to compare based on the physical amount paid, though RVI can give some info.

Consider WR1s Calvin Johnson down through Larry Fitzgerald; there is almost a one point drop off afterwards into the WR2s/3s, who all functional relatively equivalently. WRs are so spotty that minute differences in scoring potential matters very little.

In regards to how to compare the RVI, the number itself is unimportant. What matters is how is stacks up to similar players. 0.06 points per week separate #19 Steve Smith and #28 Torrey Smith, which for our purposes in zero. For them and all the players scattered between, their RVI only matters in the context of the value of others.

Before anyone eviscerates me for this, I’d like to point out that the WRs, more than anyone else, are a subjective judgment. They are far less consistent than QBs and RBs and there is a lot more variability in how they will perform compared to their predicted points. This leaves more wiggle room for bidding on a “feeling” that a player will do well. I think this is a valuable option (since more of them have similar predictions, anyway), but I can’t judge it. I’m judging based solely on predicted stats, which gives a basis for how well or poorly a team drafted.

I will continue to toot my own horn on my WR corps; three in the top 12, two easy WR1s and a WR1.5 in Wes Welker. Roddy White and Vincent Jackson had the highest RVI of all WR1s taken. This draft, which I think, objectively, went fairly well for me, will provide a good example for how numbers don’t tell the whole story when I am mercilessly crushed throughout the season.

I left off one thing when speaking about WR1s. There is no Elite WR1 category, only one Elite WR1: Calvin Johnson. He’s predicted to get 2 more points per week than any other WR, and his consistency, coupled with the overall inconsistency of WRs, is amazing. The fact that Jason spent only one dollar more for him than Kyle spent on AJ Green is astonishing. CJ was the first man off the board this year, and clearly no one was ready to start bidding on WRs. Jason got quite the deal.

I mentioned above the logjam of middling, average WRs. If you look closely from all received after Mike Wallace, their points per week are very similarly, all within 2 points and mostly within 1, with a couple of outliers. These WRs are really all about feel, and are all, from a pure statistics standpoint, equivalent. So this is where we see who shops for smart bargains and who pays big for the unpredictable: who will blow up this year. Travis (Steve Smith, $11/12.45), Peter (Jordy Nelson, $9/14.88), Ryan Good (Cecil Shorts, $6/21.83) and Donel (DeSean Jackson, $6/21.66 > Pierre Garcon $11/11.18) managed to find WRs from this line of identical robots at low cost. On the flip side, Ryan Good’s other two selections, Dwayne Bowe ($20/6.6) and Antonio Brown ($13/10.3) were bad deals. Bowe, specifically, is troubling. Without any inside knowledge into how Ryan thinks, I have to presume he was bidding on name; Dwayne Bowe has had elite seasons in the past, though his stock is certainly on the downswing. The midranger high 8 to 9 points per weak players (Wes Welker, Victor Cruz, etc) were going for this amount or less. Ryan Good spending $20 for Dwayne Bowe was a desperation move. He had missed the rush of WRs and was stuck at pick 64 with no WRs on his roster. He saw a name he recognized and overbid, simple as that.

Dane, Dane, Dane. Dane’s drastic overspending in other positions led to the mighty Josh Gordon being his WR2, costing him $7. He didn’t manage to pick him up until pick 85, when most of the quality WRs had already been gobbled up. Dane just did not budget his money well this year. Remember, he spent $63 dollars on Aaron Rodgers ($47 + $16 for RGIII who will never play), $50 for CJ Spiller (not a bad pickup), and $30 on Eddie lacy (a bad pickup). That’s $143 for three players. He then went big for a WR1 (#34 for Julio Jones), essentially leaving him nothing for the rest of his team. If Dane has some of his unknowns breakout, he could have a good season. But I sense a flameout. But who knows, Cordarelle Patterson and Bilal Powell could prove me wrong

The Tight Ends

Rank	Name	Proj. Pts	Pts / Wk	Bought By	Amount Paid ($)	RVI
1	Jimmy Graham	174	10.23529412	Ryan G	26	6.692307692
2	Rob Gronkowski	173	10.17647059	Travis	15	11.53333333
3	Tony Gonzalez	133	7.823529412	Kyle	11	12.09090909
4	Jason Witten	123	7.235294118	Rob	9	13.66666667
5	Vernon Davis	114	6.705882353	Donel	10	11.4
6	Kyle Rudolph	98	5.764705882	Ryan D	6	16.33333333
7	Owen Daniels	98	5.764705882	Dane	4	24.5
8	Greg Olsen	102	6	Scott	3	34
9	Antonio Gates	99	5.823529412	Donel*	3	33
10	Brandon Myers	98	5.764705882	Jason	2	49
11	Jared Cook	94	5.529411765	Ryan D*	3	31.33333333
12	Jermichael Finley	98	5.764705882	Donel*	4	24.5
13	Martellus Bennett	93	5.470588235	Peter	1	93
14	Brandon Pettigrew	82	4.823529412	Drew	2	41
15	Fred Davis	78	4.588235294	Kim	2	39

* = Bench TE based on value

This is much easier to interpret, so it’ll be short, I promise. There are two elite TEs, Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. Now, we are all familiar with Gronk’s injuries, so I understand the trepidation in drafting him. But based on pure value, they’re functionally equivalent. The $11 excess paid for Jimmy Graham compared to Gronk means Travis got quite the deal…assuming his arm doesn’t disintegrate midplay, of which there is a >7% probability.

TEs 3-5 are the sub-Elite. They all are within 6.7-7.8 points per week; a big step down from the elite but a full point per week more than the rest of ‘em. Essentially all three of them went for the same price (from $9-$11), so there aren’t really any winners or losers.

TE 6-13 are the rest of the TE1s. They all are within half a point of each other, and very much functionally equivalent. With this in mind, Ryan Davis got the worst deal, paying $6 for Kyle Rudolph. This is a theme in our league; the first person to take a player from the first ‘tier’ of any position typically overpays, because he/she is comparing that player cost to the cost of the last player in the tier above. It’s a word of caution to everyone picking up a player right after all of the best options have gone. People start to panic, and they overbid. Fight the power. In this same fashion, Peter got the best deal by taking the last of the top tier, Martelluss Bennet, for $1.

Most owners were probably operating under the (mistaken) assumption that they would certainly end up with one of the top 13 TEs, right? What Drew and Kim could not have predicted was than Ryan Davis would draft two TEs, and Donel would taking a whopping three of the top twelve. This is borderline ludicrous. We have a one playable TE league, with one flex spot. There is almost never value in playing a second TE in the flex because, unless you have Graham and Gronk, the TE will never match up to any average WR/RB. While TEs can have injuries, I’m not sure of the value of drafting three TEs who are more or less the same. It’s like Donely paid $17 for Vernon Davis. Listen to TMR, for a sec:

Let's turn once again to Tristan Cockcroft's Consistency Rankings. Now the idea of his consistency rankings is, well, consistency. Again, we play the game over the course of a year but truthfully, it's actually 13 weekly games and then the playoffs. So how many of those weeks was a particular player worth starting? Under Tristan's system, a tight end was considered a "start" if his point total made him top 10 at his position. And the third-most consistent tight end last year was the Vikings' Kyle Rudolph, who finished the year as the ninth-highest-scoring tight end.

Now, Tristan also gives out a "stiff" rating, defined as the number of weeks a player's point total ranked among the worst at his position. In other words, since his article is about week-to-week consistency, what top-10 tight end had the most weeks in which he was brutal, the most weeks in which you would have been better starting pretty much anyone else off the waiver wire? Kyle Rudolph, with seven such games. In fact, Rudolph had four different games with zero, count 'em, zero fantasy points. Might as well have left him on your bench and started me instead.

Think about that. The third-most consistent tight end last year was also a guy who was among the worst at his position in half the weeks. It's inconceivable! And while I'm not sure that word means what I think it means, and I also think this was a bit of a stretch to fit in this particular reference, it does illustrate my take on tight end this year; Jimmy Graham is a stud. Rob Gronkowski is a stud but obviously has health. Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten are very solid, if unspectacular. And after that, they're all the same. Oh, there are guys I like more than others -- I'm a big Dennis Pitta believer this year -- but really, after those four, it's just a bunch of Kyle Rudolphs. They'll be great some weeks, disappear in others, and it's really a weekly guessing/hoping game that they find the end zone that week.

I’m guessing Donel got three TEs because he knows its just a guessing game and that he plans on keeping his options open. But this only triples the fury when you pick the wrong one. And all that money he spent on TEs could have helped him get a better WR2 than Torrey Smith. WTF Donel?

Now For Something Completely Different: PauseGate

Fantasy Football is always made better by a scandal. Remember DefenseGate? Jason forgot to pick up a D/ST and petitioned the league to allow him to pick one up when the wire was already closed. He was denied, and he ended up losing a close game. This season, we’re faced with another of many Jason scandals: PauseGate.

The draft was moving along as it always does. It was 9:52 pm and we were in the middle position doldrums; everyone who was anyone was off the board, and now we were all looking for deep sleepers/whoever our draft resource of choice told us might blow up this year. Suddenly, I get this text from Jason:

Jason: “Internet broken pause please!!!!”

I considered ignoring it just because of the excessive punctuation (my personal pet peeve. The only thing worse are smiley faces), but then responded back:

Rob: “There’s no pause button!”

I figured that was that. Besides, Everybody Hates Jason, so this was kind of a plus.

However, my eyes began to wander across the draft page. When I logged into the draft (an hour early, as is my ritual), I had noticed a tab at the top of the page labeled “LM Tools.” There’s a similar tab that comes up on just about every page of my ESPN League View, so I didn’t think much of it. When Jason asked me to pause, though, it made me curious. I clicked on it.

The page basically presented three options: “Remove previous selection,” “Change value of previous selection,” and “Pause.”

Well, shit. I texted Jason back:

Rob: oh wait there is. Where are you?

Jason: Restarting my internet

I pondered over whether it would be more fair to bring it to a vote first, thus letting the draft continue and essentially screwing Jason regardless of the outcome, or simply pausing it and bringing it to a vote. I chose the latter. Here is what happened:

Rob: Jason says his Internet is broken.

(Draft paused) (9:54 pm)

Travis: eye of the Jew? [of course a reference to the 2006 classic, Beerfest, where a wily Jew proved he could out drink the Germans]

Travis: what is happening?

Peter: you can't pause the draft [fun fact: I can. Who knew?]

Rob: Jason requested a pause

Drew: what happened?

Ryan Davis: who paused it?

Ryan Davis: that's crap

Kyle: you can't triple stamp a double stamp [I have no idea why this applies, but I approve all Dumb and Dumber references]

Travis: piss break?

Donel: wait we have to vote on this right? [I curse the day I made this league a democracy. In all seriousness, though, I’m still not sure what the right move to make was.]

Ryan Good: boooooooo

Ryan Good: this is bullshit

Rob: do you guys not want to honor his pause? I can put it back on

Donel: boooo

Ryan Good: yea no pause

Donel: boooo Rob

Rob: if I get six nays the draft is back on

Peter: Bolshevik [somehow, pausing the draft made me a communist. The logic is unclear, but I love it. I will steal this insult]

Travis: how long does he get?

Ryan Good: that is lame

Ryan Davis: put it back on this is bs

Ryan Good; harrumph [after Bolshevik, this was my second favorite overall comment. No simple and so Ryan Good]

Scott: WTF mate?

Jason Feuerman has left the draft (9:56 pm) [interestingly, Jason remained in the draft for like 2-3 minutes after being disconnected]

Kyle: how do you pause?

Rob: ill take that as six nos... [for reference, I was counting Ryan Davis, Donel, Ryan Good, Scott, Peter, and myself. I couldn't tell if Kyle and Travis were for or against the pause]

(Draft restarted) [At this point, I texted Jason that “Managers overturned your pause,” to which he responded, “bs!!” Gratuitous punctuation.]

Travis: I've literally been sprinting to pee

Drew: I bring the MacBook in with me

Ryan Good: I peed holding my laptop [I didn't pee once during the draft. Y'all have female bladders, clearly]

Rob: it's kind of unprecedented. I've never had anyone request a pause

(A player, whom I can’t remember, came up to be drafted. I made a bid, and Jason’s autodraft countered)

Rob: ill let computer Jason have him

Peter: Computer Jason doesn't have much room to work

Scott: last starting RB?

Jason Feuerman has joined the draft (9:58 pm)

Jason: YOU ALL SUCK

Ryan Good: It was unanimous [was it?]

Travis: or is he?

Ryan Good: that is spelled wrong but you get the point [it wasn’t]

Rob: I've never seen such an uprising

Rob: someone call me a Bolshevik. [this clearly stuck with me]

Kyle: that will go down in history as the draft Jason fucking paused [this is 100% true. It's like WNQ material for years]

Scott: it escalated quickly [no shit. The entire thing lasted 6 minutes from disconnect to reconnect]

Rob: this will have to be a proposed amendment

Peter: if your team sucks just blame it on the pause

Peter: boycott the season

Ryan Davis: I boycott this season. I refuse to check my team from this day forward

Peter: Bye Week [i hope other people besides me got this reference]

Ryan Good: well that's no change

Rob: so it'll be like the first time you played

Jason: I ran down to the apartment common area and almost knocked over a 75 year old

Peter: out of the league

Kyle: screw him

Jason: and you overturned my pause

Peter: I told you this would happen rob [since all of you have the full transcription of this conversation, perhaps you can clarify...what did Peter tell me would happen? I haven’t been able to figure it out]

Ryan Good: he is the champ - maybe he should get a pause...

Kyle: I propose one pause for the champ

Jason: I don't fucking need it anymore

Kyle: in the future

Rob: I like how y'all are nice to Jason's face

Rob: and were furious when it was paused

Ryan Good: haha

Ryan Good: Jason is always the center of controversy

Kyle: I've never seen such commentary

Rob: Jewish Malificent!

All in all, a great catfight. I hope everyone realizes this will just give Jason’s eternal fantasy football fire fuel to crush us over and over.

And that’s it for the week. I simply can’t go on any long. You’ll be hearing more from me soon(ish).

Love,

The Commissioner

WNQ Week 10: Alas, Poor Godin

[image]http://hectorsanzbritz.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/tenant-hamlet-415x275.jpg[/image]
[i]The skull is Jon Godin's spirit.[/i]

So as many of you know from my frantic text-storm, Jon Godin has excused himself from our fantasy football league. I’m keeping his email for my records, but if anyone wishes to see it, I can forward it along. It sounds like he’s just too busy to manage a FF team, which has happened to all of us.

In the subsequent vote, five teams voted to find a new owner of the team, and six voted to leave the team as is. Technically Ryan Davis’ vote doesn’t count (though I can’t say there is much precedence for this), but regardless, Jon’s team will stand as a shell to remind us of its former owner.

We’ll obviously address this issue further at the end of the season, especially because this does bring up many questions. Our league can’t function with an odd number of teams (well, it can, but that’s stupid).  So as if the process of confirming or denying the new managers acceptance to the leave wasn’t complicated enough, now Ryan/A is in the unenviable position of knowing his fate is directly tied to the acceptance of a 12 player who is as of yet unnamed. Very complicated.

[b]This is the Recap: Eight Talking Points From Week 9[/b]

1) I had a conversation with Travis before the games last week and he said his team was “in trouble” and that it was extremely lucky he was playing Jon. 135 points (including 51 from Doug Martin) later, Travis more or less put that thought to rest. Travis’ team is a monster. Is this the year Travis will finally break the curse? He’s aligning himself as the perfect team to take it all: he’s heating up towards the end, has a couple monstrous sleeper players, and is in 2nd place for the foreseeable future. We all know the first place team never wins. Travis has positioned himself brilliantly for a playoff push

2) Speaking of Doug Martin, his 51 points is the best single fantasy week our league has ever seen (though not the biggest ever. Shaun Alexander had a 52, once, I believe). He takes the top spot not only on the RB board (over Chris Johnson, 45 points for Kim in Season 3, Week 2), but on the overall board as well (over Michael Vick’s 49 points for Scott in Season 4, Week 10). Doug Martin! I barely know who that is. Who names a RB Doug Martin, anyway?  He has neither a hyphen nor a double Z in his name. He must be made up.

3) What a week for defenses! While I don’t think my team needed much help beating an anemic Team Buffalo, the 25 points the Chargers gave me (#11 all time D/ST, #3 on the year) didn’t hurt and helped me look respectable. Drew, meanwhile, managed a 24 point win over Scott (more on that in a bit) with 26 points from the Bears (#9 all time D/ST, #2 on the year). Scott’s bottom line, too, was helped by the 21 points the Saints D/ST put up against Philadelphia. As Peter would say, “TAINT!”

4) Kim pulls a fast one this week with her SECOND tie of the season. Now, I never took a statistics class, so I’m not sure how to do the math, but it seems highly improbably that we would end up with this many ties. We had two ties over the course of the first four seasons. In the past two we have had five, and three of those belong to Kim.  While this is not the first time a player has finished with two ties in one season (See: Travis Langley, Season 5, 7-4-2), I’m not quite sure how this keeps happening. It’s like we’re getting struck but lightning over and over. IT MAKES NO SENSE. More problematic for me is that it wreaks havoc with the standings. What kind of record is 3-4-2? I’m hoping Kim finishes out with one win and two more ties so she can end up 4-4-4.

5) The Haves and Have Nots Part II: The top five teams all won last week. To that statistic even more ridiculous, teams number 6 and 7 decided to just tie. Stupid Peter. This is his fault.

6) The return of Scotty Bake? Remember when Scott used to dominate the league? Serenity Now, Double Dwayne Bowe, Rogue Peanuts: those were some good teams. Scotty Bake reigned supreme during Seasons 1-3, claiming two titles and one runner-up title. He slowed in recent years, finishing 5th-6th afterwards, but he has never missed the playoffs and has proved himself surprisingly feisty. But that Scotty Bake seems to be no more. Papa Scott has been popping a squat all over the league this season; the only person he’s beating isn’t even actually playing. And while Scott suffered another defeat this week, his team suddenly has a spark of life. 109 points is nothing to scoff at. While it could all end up as fluke, I think there’s a little bit of Scotty Bake left in the decaying, malignant team that’s currently stinking up the bottom of the standings.

7) Jason: still winning. Don’t you just hate him?

8) While this isn’t a stat I keep track of, I’m curious if anyone can find something who has had less bench points than Travis did last week (4, all from one player). Travis may be riding high but I don’t think he can really lose any other players. Things are looking a little thin over in Hotlanta.

[b]Rivalry Week: Part II[/b]

The Lawrence House 2nd Floor Trophy: Ryan/B vs. Rob

Which of the (permanent) Lawrence upstairs-dwellers will take this inaugural trophy home? Will it be Ryan, he who cleans while he sleeps and farts like a rhino? Will it be myself, he who buys too much beer and occasionally vomits in his bed? Good money says “Rob,” but we all know anything is possible.

The “You Dented My Jeep” Jeep: Peter vs. Ryan/A

So back during M1 year, a bunch of us were out at the bars. I think it might have been the Brown Jug, but it very well could have been one of the many other bars we went to too often and drank too much. Davis had decided to drive us there (because too much alcohol means Ryan can’t get in a full 22 hours of studying the next day), so we took his jeep and had a good time. We all got pretty shitty.

I don’t remember the full details (obviously. Did you meet me M1 year?), but I know that Peter said something ridiculous and I jumped on his back. In retaliation he threw me into Ryan’s jeep. Now, this couldn’t have hurt me less; I had my beer armor on. The jeep, however, got a big old dent. Peter quickly turned to defense mode (“Rob, this is all your fault”), and our drunken yelling couldn’t convince him otherwise. Ryan Davis and Peter then passive-aggressively feuded for months, with Peter refusing to take responsibility. Ultimately, Ryan Davis and I (Ryan >> me) fixed the dent by pounding it out, more or less. I think Ryan/A might still be pissed. Now is his chance to get Peter back.

Drew vs. Godin: Cancelled

I had a decent story here, but there’s no point calling this a rivalry game when Godin is going to lose by 100 points and will never know the outcome.

The Radiology Board Test Answers: Travis vs. Scott

On a fundamental, basic level, this is a matchup between our two image reviewers. However, there is so much more to this rivalry. Travis and Scott are two of the class acts of our league, and both spend a lot of time thinking about fantasy football. This is kind of the Nebraska vs. Penn State game; both of these teams are respected but don’t really have much beef with each other. What I think this game does offer is a great sense of satisfaction for the winner, because I feel much more satisfied and accomplished after a win over Travis and Scott than with most other wins.

The Quiet One Cup: Kim vs. Donel

Kim and Donel are both very unassuming. They don’t trash talk much. They’re active but not boisterous/annoying like I am most of the time. They manage their teams and go about their business. They’re like postal workers; you never notice them until they light up the joint after they snap from overabuse.


Kyle vs. Jason

I’ve got a story for this but it will have to wait; I’m out of time and need to take call in the ICU. More later!

WNQ Week 9: The Homestretch...and Impeachment?

Should Jon stay in the league? Read below for an important league announcement.

Some of you may have heard the stories from the unfortunately-outcomed Michigan Nebraska game last weekend. While I’ve got a great story to tell about copious vomiting (Carissa and Nabeel), getting lost in Nebraska (Dane) and visiting the drunk tank (Sean and Lori, my fiancée), it’s a story best heard in person. Also, I’ve run out of time to write it all, as usual. So I’m going to stick with, you know, fantasy football, because that should, theoretically, he what this is all about.

The focus this week is on playoffs. We’ve officially got five more games until the end of the season, and things are beginning to look very good for certain teams, and very dire for others.

Week 8 Winners and Losers:

Winner: The Top 4

Last week was a good week for who I’m (currently) calling the Big Four: Drew, Travis, Ryan Davis, and myself. Now, it’s tough for me to use this term, because it’s really more of a Big Two and a Little Two; Travis and Drew have not only the two best records but also the highest point totals of any team. Davis and I are playing ugly but making it work, though we’re not so insurmountable that it’s unlikely that another team will pass us in the final standings. But with each of us winning last week, there is a steady widening of the gap between the haves and have nots.

Winner: Peter

That’s a statement you probably won’t hear again. Peter, the most maligned member of our league, who hasn’t made the playoffs since our inaugural, 8-team playoff season, with the second lowest percentage of all teams active before this year (40.2%, barely edging Kim’s 39.5%), and owner of two proud 10th place finishes and two 8th place finishes (his best finish: Season 1, 7th place), is suddenly relevant. His Week 8 win over everyone’s least favorite fantasy football player was the kind of statement win Peter needs moving forward to potentially make a playoff run. And he’s currently in 6th place! Peter hasn’t been in 6th place at anytime after the halfway-point of the season since Season 1. I know it’s premature to say Peter might just make a run, as karma has a way of smiting him, but things are certainly looking up for Mr. Unfortunate.

Loser: Jon Godin

I’m emailing a link of this post out to Godin this week because I’m fairly positive there is no way he’s logged into the league in three weeks. Let’s look at the evidence:

In Week 7, Godin failed to play an active RB and WR, despite having two active RBs and three active WRs on his roster. The outcome? 53 points in a blowout loss to Peter.

In Week 8, Godin failed to play an active RB, a FLEX, and a defense. He didn’t even bother picking up a D/ST to play, but did have two RBs on his bench that could have been used. The outcome? 49 points in a bad but not terrible loss to Ryan Bad.

Jon is on a 6 game losing streak, and may have just simply been ignoring his team without our knowing it for weeks now.

Jon has NEVER bid on a player in the Free Agent Auction. Don’t be confused by his $86 free agent auction budget remaining. He suffered $14 in penalties from not paying for 14 days after the deadline.

I find this disgraceful, for multiple reasons. I will start out by saying that I do not begrudge someone an occasional open slot. There are a variety of reasons that someone might not start a player, whether it be bad free agent auction luck (ala Jewish Malificent during Defensegate last year), active vomiting and hangover (Donel), or occasional absent-mindedness, which has hit us all once or twice. Repeated, flagrant lack of interest in your team, however, is unacceptable.

There are bigger issues at play, however. When Kyle got frustrated with Computer Buffalo Dung, he took it like a man, acknowledged it for what it was, and paid his fines like a man. Many players, including myself, are actively distressed when fate works against them and they are unable to start an active player. Jon has shown neither of these things…and likely does not even know a problem is occurring.

I texted Jon last week and told him to manage his fantasy football team. He gave a vague response. I’m not sure if we will see him again.

This brings us to a crossroads of sort. What is the best option? Jon, you shall recall, is currently in his probationary period, as is Ryan Davis. There is no chance Jon, in his current standing, will ever grace the league again. Is it possible he turns it around and makes himself into a respectable member of the league? Perhaps. He doesn’t have a bad team, and certainly has players some of us would kill for. What if he made some trades, was attentive to his team, active in our community, and made the playoffs? He might still be able to make a case of himself. This is unlikely, but possible.

Without a personal plea from the Godin himself, I think the more likely outcome is his being voted out of the league. Would it be more fair to call and emergency meeting and have it happen now? Should we vote at this moment to keep or lose Jon Godin? Should we disband his roster and have a lottery for collecting his players? Or should we just put all of his players on the bench? There’s also the option of bringing in another manager to help with his team. We’ve discussed both Tudor and Justin in the past, though who knows what their availability is. We also have the option of Dane, who apparently, unbeknownst to us, has been playing FF for years in smaller leagues. We do have a lot of options.

As I said before, I am going to email this post out to everyone so there is a chance Godin will see it and give him a chance to defend himself. I’m also going to put an informal poll (or two) on the front page, and I hope you will all vote over the weekend so I can get an idea of what people are thinking.

Loser: Kyle

Kyle, I love ya, but your team would have lost to Jon’s team of inactives this weak, which is no good.

The Playoff Picture

FF is notoriously unpredictable, but there have been trends in our league that have never been violated. For example, there has never been a team with seven wins who has NOT made the playoffs. In the same regard, there has never been a team with 5 wins who has made the playoffs. So the magic number all teams are looking for, wins-wise, is seven. At six wins, teams have a 60% chance of making the playoffs if we include all seasons; if we remove the 8 team playoff, 14 team league of season 1, that improves slightly to 61.5%. It is still unclear whether a 12-team league will give us more middling teams at 6 wins or more 12-1 monsters and 2-11 losers, so it’s hard to carry trends over into this season, but it should be a safe bet that 7 wins = playoffs.

Drew is already at 7 wins and is a safe bet for the playoffs. Travis is also essentially in, with two, count ‘em two games against Jon still to come.

There are then four other teams who have the chance to control their own destiny. With five games to play, my team is no guarantee for two more wins but I have the great fortune of playing Donel, Ryan Bad, and Kyle, both who are currently in the doldrums. Davis has an even more fortunate draw, with Donel, Jon, Ryan Bad and Scott on his ticket, as well as Peter’s average team. While neither of us are guarantees (we’re low scoring teams on a mission!), we’re both good if not great bets for the playoffs.

Jason and Peter are a bit more dicey. Jewish Malificent is facing four losing teams but those include Kim’s occasionally dangerous lineup, as well as his arch nemesis Bad Karma Peter. The Jason vs. Peter matchup will be a must win for Peter, as he also has to worry about Ryan/A and myself on his schedule.

Let’s make the presumption that neither Scott nor Godin will make the playoffs. Godin would need to, you know, play fantasy football in order to actually be competitive. Scott, at 2-5-1 really only needs four wins to make it into the playoffs as the T in his column gives him the ultimate tiebreaker. However, does anyone think Scott can win four of five games when his opponents include Travis, Drew, Ryan/A, and J. Malificent? Scott will be lucky to get away with two wins, and is likely out of the running.

That leaves Kim, Donel, Ryan/B, and Kyle on the outside looking in. Kim, with her tie, has the best chance to sneak into a final spot and could potentially get in with a 6-6-1 record. Assuming she will lose to Drew in her final game of the season, she needs to win 3 of 4 tough games against Peter, Donel, Kyle, and Jason. Not insurmountable, but iffy.

Donel’s 719 PF gives him the next best tiebreaker, essentially guaranteeing himself tiebreakers versus nearly every team not owned by Drew or Travis. He, however, needs to face both 5-3 teams in the league…though he also gets the consensus bottom 2, giving him a coin flip chance for a 6 win season.

Ryan/B may end up being undone by his schedule. Assuming he beats Jason this week (which is a poor assumption), he’d then need to beat two of the following four: myself, Travis, Peter, and Ryan/A. This seems unlikely, and I’m calling Ryan Good out of the running. Ditto for Kyle, who is playing five teams with a better record than him, including 4 of the top 5 teams.

As the season progresses, I’ll try to focus in on the key matchups with playoff implications. For now, I think the top 6 teams have a great chance to be the final ones standing, but time will tell…

Records

Here's a bonus for anyone who reads this on the site...not available via email!

Two records were set last week.

First, Rob Gronkowski's 26 points is in a tie for the second highest TE score of all time. For reference, Gronkowski now possesses 6 scores within the top 10.

Second, Peter got 19 points out of Lawrence Tynes (K), good for fourth place on the K list.

Fines:

Juan: $10 ($6 this week for three inactives) 

WNQ, Week 8: They Are Who We Thought They Were

I heard Jason made this

Here at midseason, there are still a lot of questions. Nine teams are within a tiebreaker of a playoff spot at this very second, and one of the highest scoring teams in the league is one game behind. Some good teams are struggling, and some bad teams are thriving. The biggest question I want to address this week is how having 12 teams is affecting our league.

I’ve heard Travis’ opinion on this, and it goes something like this: “Twelve teams are a mess. Everything is too close. What a disaster.” I’ve also heard positivity about what the shake up does to the dynamic of the league, or specifically, the fact that average teams can no longer coast into the playoffs at spot #6. You’ve got to earn it. I think there are multiple sides of the issue, which I’d like to examine.

Opinion 1: Everybody is scoring less this year because more teams mean fewer stars per team and lower overall scores

I was a big proponent of this opinion. The logic makes sense. With ten FF teams, each team could theoretically get a top 10 QB, top 10 TE, 3 top 30 RBs and WRs, and a decent D/ST and K. This is already numerically impossible with 12 teams, and then when the random luck factor of finding the next big thing comes into play, we should end up with lower scoring teams.

And we have. Last year, in the first seven weeks of the season, there were 29 times that a team scored over 100 points, and seven of those were over 130 points. This year? Only twenty teams have had a score over 100 points, and only two were over 130. That’s a fairly significant decline. The argument many have made is that this is due to our expansion.

But here’s an interesting data point: so far this year we have had only two individual player records in our league; one QB, one K. At the same point last year, there were twelve. While I can’t use this data to say the 12-team league is not causing scores to drop overall, it does point out a larger trend at work: FF scores across the NFL are down. There have been less blow-out performances by elite players this year; even “fantastic” weeks by players are well below those from years’ past.

Opinion 2: 12-teams will create more parity, and a logjam in the middle

Multiple people have told me this…but I’m not sure exactly what the reasoning is. A league will have more parity if there are a variety of teams with similar levels of skill. The argument that a 12-team league is more likely to have this than a 10-team league doesn’t stand up, mathematically. Everyone has the same resources and will live and die about their decision on how to use those resources.

There are currently 7 teams within one game of .500. If this plays out and those seven teams stay at that level, that will be only one more team at that score than our previous high of 6 teams, which occurred twice. In our four years as a 10-team league, we average 47.5% of teams finishing within one game of .500. With 12-teams, we’re at a paltry 58% of teams at this level, and the previous average is weighed down heavily by the have or have nots season of Computer Buffalo Dung. As of right now, we’re pretty close, but not so close that I can blame the 12-team format.

Opinion 3: Ryan Davis and Jon Godin will be destroyed

This is kind of a two-parter. Many people assumed Davis would go down in flames, given his a) Legendarily bad season 1 performance and b) predilection to neglect his social life to read one more chapter of his textbooks. The same was assumed for Godin, mostly because of his schedule (Ortho = workhorse) and his relative newness to FF.

The answer to this is also a two-parter. Davis has surprised. Currently sitting in 5th place, Davis has had some bad weeks but has managed overall not to embarrass himself. He sets his line up every week and is an overall non-detriment to the league, which would have been unheard of a few years ago.

Godin’s fate, on the other hand, is yet to be determined. He started with a bang and has the 145-point week game to prove it. Since then he’s been on a steady decent into sadness, and his recent failure to put up a full roster makes me question his commitment. I don’t know what happened to him this week, but we’ll see how he recovers.

Outcomes of Note During Week 7

Pigs Flying: I have the highest score of the week! I would take more pride in this, but Scott’s team is terrible and it’s hard to feel good about beating him. It’s like if we went to war with Somalia; there’s just no pride in that victory.

Shame of Fools: Jon Godin, really? You fail to start a RB and WR despite having both, active, on your bench? Sometimes fate conspires against us to get the players we want, but there is no excuse to not taking the five minutes necessary to just set an active line up. Shame x2: It led to a Peter win!

Descent Into Hell?: As you may have noticed, I’m in 4th place this week, which is shameful enough for our league. However, to do this needed an epic feat: I needed to win, Davis needed to lose, and I needed to outscore him by 50 points. As a team that has broken 90 points just once before this game, I haven’t really outscored anyone by 50 points this entire season. Yet somehow I scored 107 and Ryan scored 57, leading to a statistical tie of PF. Since I beat Ryan Davis this season, that gives me the tie breaker! The rub: Ryan Davis is quickly descending into terribleness.

Update: Kyle drafting himself = only slightly better than the computer drafting for him

Trophies

I have minimal to say about these, but expect them to pop up in your trophy boxes soon when I find the proper pictures.

Fines

Jon Godin: $4

Other…

This is a short post as I’ve got to get ready for the MI vs NE game! More next week…