Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Playoffs Pending: The History Edition of (a very prompt) Wednesday Morning Quarterback



Another week, another inevitable loss by me, another crushing victory my Scott, another year of underachievement for Ryan. Playoffs? You talkin' about playoffs? I'll get to that...but first!

A TRIP DOWN MEMORY LANE 

As our (regular) season comes to a close, I thought now would be a good time to take a look at the history of our league...and all the associated trends, scandals, and hurt feelings. I’d like to say that the reason I’m doing this is to pick out any information that might give us a hint of things to come in this year’s playoffs...but really I’m just doing this for fun, and because I love statistics.

Year 1: MDeucesWild (14 teams) or, The (Sad, Confusing, Overstuffed) Early Years

I remember our M2 fantasy football league. It was my first year playing fantasy football, and I was filled with a healthy mix of joy and confusion. I was intimidated by the people who had played before, but optimistic that it was going to be the Best Thing Ever. I was kind of right!

When talking about many fantasy football statistics, I usually leave out the information garnered from our first season. The reason? Our format was drastically different then. First off, we had 14 teams, an ungodly number that made sure there was no way each team had enough players who were mediocre or better to start week to week. Also, I believe we started more players each week at that time...but I can’t prove this.

Most importantly...there were eight playoff teams, that makes it increasingly difficult to draw parallels to our current set up because the cut off from playoff caliber to losers bracket shifted so dramatically. Also, those girls fucked everything up.

Seriously. Who (besides Kim) doesn’t remember what a wreck the league was that year? On one hand you’ve got Karen, who got bored around week 2 and simply stopped starting players. Then you’ve got Carissa/Annie who combined for a whopping total of 0 pick ups/trades during the entire season. And of course, we all remember Nava and Steven-Jackson-gate, still the single dumbest thing I’ve seen in fantasy football on this side of spending $80 for Brandon Jackson during the free agent auction.

That was also the year of the one-and-done fantasy football player. Besides the above mentioned girls, was also lost Ryan Davis, whose sorely neglected team was fittingly named “Bye Week.” With all this suckitude, what was perhaps the saddest of all was the fact that Ryan Good, the founder of our league and most experienced fantasy football player, finished 4-9 in 12th place, behind both Nava and Carissa/Annie.

Here are the regular season standings from Year 1:

1. Kyle (Bohminators) 10-2-1
Scott (Rogue Peanuts) 10-3
(.)(.)s (Peter) 8-4-1
Fever (Fever) 8-5 [1380 PF]
Phil (Gravano) 8-5 [1344 PF]
Donel (D Money All Day) 7-6 [1200 PF]
Rob (My Time To Shine) 7-6 [1193 PF]
Travis (Vick’s Picks) 6-7 [1334 PF]
Carissa/Annie (Daaa Broads) 6-7 [1194 PF]
Drew (Flummer) 6-7 [1137 PF]
Nava (girl power) 5-8
Ryan Good (Pure Goodness) 4-9
Ryan Davis (Bye Week) 3-10
Karen (GangGreen) 2-11

Ultimately, after the playoffs, the final rankings would see the top 8 switched like so:
Fever
Scott
Travis
Donel
Rob
Kyle
Peter
Phil

A few things can be garnered from the standings along. First off, it was clearly a bad year to be named Ryan. The #1 team, as is the norm for us, did not fare very well in the playoffs. And in the cruelest of consolation prizes I won the winners’-losers’ bracket after being steamrolled by Scott in Round 1. Also, keep an eye on where Scott falls in our yearly rankings. It’s pretty consistent. Luckily, Jason beat him that time (135-112), or we’d all be pretty pissed at Scott.

Playoff rundown:

In the first round of the playoffs, Fever and Phil tied 118-118. Fever advanced...and would ultimately win the entire tournament. To this day I have no idea how that tiebreaker was determined. That game shaped the season. Also in the first round of the playoffs, the #1 and #3 seed were eliminated. Travis, the #8 seed, ascended to an eventual third place finish. He also had the highest scoring playoff round, when he scored 143 in Round 1. The lowest playoff scoring round? Travis’ Round 2 74

Fun facts!

Jason made an at-that-time-unprecedented 87 transactions over the course of the season, 30 more than his closest competitor, Scott.
Ryan Good started the season 4-4, then lost his last 5 games. Pay attention to how terribly Ryan Good does at the end of seasons!
I started 1-5 then won 6 of 7 to finish out the season and secure a playoff spot. Of my 7 wins, only 3 were over people who are still a part of our league (Scott, Jason, and Peter, all of my arch-nemeses)
Kyle and Peter had the first recorded tie...in week 1. I remember we were all very confused about that...this led to multiple rejiggering of tiebreaker rules over the course of 4 seasons
Ryan David didn’t get a win until week 7. He didn’t score over 100 points until week 13
Peter had the all time high-score, with 170 points against Karen in week 4. Peter’s team also made the playoffs, which is admittedly hard to imagine. Scott was the high scorer of the season, with 1476 points. See what I mean about point inflation?!
QB TDs were worth 6 that season, which explains at least part of why Tom Brady could get 50+ points every week.


Year 2: Classic M Triad (10 teams), or The Lean Years

The modern era of our fantasy football league started in year 2, when we trimmed the fat from the league and switched to a format similar to the one we are in now: 10 teams, 6 playoff spots. QB TDs dropped to 4 pts, and scoring settled into its current format (no more routine 150+ point games).

Ultimately, we ended up with a much more mature league. There was less fat (notice I don’t say “no fat.” See the section on Phil later) in the league, and everything just seemed to run more smoothly. Until the end of the season, that is, when 5 teams were tied at 6-7 and tiebreakers had to come into place to determine which 3 of those teams would make the playoffs. This marked the first time teams with losing records made the playoffs. Also: no new teams made the playoffs that year; all 6 playoff teams (Scott, Jason, Kyle, Travis, Donel, and myself) had been there the year before.

I had almost forgotten this...but do you guys remember the time before our leagues had automatic scoring updates? Yahoo made us pay if we wanted Stat Tracker...so we often had no idea exactly how well our teams were doing until we a) wasted two hours trying to crunch numbers, or b) the results were published the next day. I caved and spent the $5 for stack tracker, and subsequently became a regular Sunday evening contact person for people trying to figure out the score of their games. It seems positively prehistoric.

This would make Phil’s final year with our fantasy football league. Phil was sort of swallowed up by third year, and simply didn’t check his team for weeks at a time, leading to many crying for his ouster. I don’t believe a formal resignation was ever received...he just simply wasn’t invited back. It became a point of assumption, really, that if he didn’t care enough to manage his team, he wouldn’t care that he was left out the next season. Oh well. There’s nothing more aggravating than fighting for a playoff spot against a good team while another team is getting an easy win from someone playing no WRs.

The Regular Season Standings:

Travis (The Mark Maker’s) 12-1
Jason (More Cowbell) 9-4
Kyle (Bohminators deux) 7-6
Scott (Serenity Now) 6-7 [PF 1217]
Rob (Back For The First Time) 6-7 [PF 1207]
Donel (D Money All Day) 6-7 [PF 1180]
Ryan (Good Not Great) 6-7 [PF 1159]
Drew (Flummer) 6-7 [PF 1142]
Phil (Gravano) 4-9
(.)(.)s Redux 3-10

Ultimately, after the playoffs:

Scott
Jason
Kyle
Travis
Donel
Rob
Ryan
Drew
Phil
Peter

While the league was a striking image of parity (6 teams had 6 or 7 wins), there were two clear outliers: Peter with a record of 3-10, and Travis with a remarkable 12-1. I don’t remember anyone having a season that good before. His only loss that season? Week 6 to me. Mwahaha! My team might never be that special, but it loves to play spoiler.

Playoff Rundown:

Our #1 seed that year, Travis, lost his first playoff game and joined a long list of underachieving first seeders. Scott managed the two highest scores in the playoffs, 138 in the first round and 124 in the finals. Jason’s 80 in the finals was a massive meltdown, the worst in the playoffs besides Travis’ 76 pt 3rd place game loss. I, again, couldn’t manage a real playoff win.

Fun facts!

This I remember very clearly: Ryan Good started the season 6-1, then preceded to lose 6 in a row and miss the playoffs. As one of the worst teams, he deserved it. It was reminiscent of his 5 game meltdown the year previous
At this point in time, Ryan Good and Drew were the only teams in our league not to have a playoff appearance.
Scott’s 6-7 champion ship team marks the only time (thus far) a team with a losing record has taken the championship. Also, Scott tried his hardest to miss the playoffs, losing his last 3 games.
Drew won his last 4 games but just missed the playoffs. He and Ryan tend to have opposite trajectories during the season, with Ryan starting strong and melting down and Drew sucking it up then turning on the burner late. Didn’t work out for either of them, again.
After starting 1-4, I succeeded in making the playoffs as an also-ran for a second-straight year. Like Drew, I tended to start soft, but managed to just eke out enough wins to get the chance to lose in the first round.
Travis had the THREE highest scoring weeks, at 167, 159, and 141. Yikes. Still managed to lose out in the end.
Jason shattered his own transaction record with 109 moves during Season 2, besting second place Scott who had 61. For reference as to what the rest of our league looked like, the third most transactions = 35.
The second season proved that names weren’t really our strong suit. Two teams (Kyle and Peter) chose to add deux/redux to their previous team name. Drew, Donel and Phil just kept their team name the same. Fever continued his run of vague reference to the word “fever.”


Year 3: M4Play (10 teams ), or A Season of Change

M4Play marked our league’s move to ESPN, forever leaving behind the beloved Yahoo smack board but hated Yahoo points charges. Subsequently, Yahoo would make their point tracker free...but whatever! Also, that marked the first year of this column, and my general overmanagement of our leagues settings. As it is this year, Ryan may be our commissioner in name, but I hold all the power!

This also marked the first season where the losers’ bracket had its own little playoff. I’ll admit to have not paid attention to this in the past. I think there should be a penalty for ultimately finishing in 10th place (maybe an extra $10 fee?) to encourage people to take honor in 9th, as I did, ultimately.

With Phil given the boot, Kim joined our league this year. After Carissa/Annie, Nava, and Karen set women’s lib back 100+ years with their anemic showing in season 1, we were all admittedly skeptical about letting a, gasp, GIRL back into the league. But I mean, come on! Kim’s got two championship fantasy baseball teams! We knew she wouldn’t be Carissa redux. And we were right: she was much more awful. She paid plenty of attention to her team...but that doesn’t mean she wasn’t just dreadful. We chalked it up to growing pains.

I’m not sure why I called year 2 a season of change. I think it actually had the least change of any season. Whatever. I’m keeping it!

Regular Season Final Standings

Ryan (Team Good) 10-3
Drew (Stream Team) 9-4
Jason (Return of the Cowbell) 8-5
Kyle (Bohm’s Bums) 7-6 [PF 1145]
Scott (Team Schadenfreude) 7-6 [PF 1079]
Travis (Atlanta Boxcar Joes) 6-7 [PF 1268]
Rob (Matt Stafford Infection) 6-7 [PF 1137]
Donel (D No Money All Day) 5-8
Kim (Lez Med) 4-9
Peter (=====D~ in Scott’s Face) 3-10

After playoffs:

Scott
Travis
Drew
Ryan
Kyle
Jason
Peter
Kim
Rob
Donel

First off, I need to comment about how good some of these team names are. =====D~ in Scott’s Face is my favorite team name of all time. Not only is it funny, directly insulting to one of our own, and very in-jokey, it’s also thematically consistent with Peter’s old name, (.)(.)s. I think that name deserves an award. Also: Donel, who has changed his team name all of once in 4 season, cracked my shit up when, at the end of a brutal 10th place finish, he rechristended himself D No Money All Day. And while my team names always crack me up, I also like Travis’ ongoing Boxcar Joe character, Scott’s Team Schadenfreude, and Drew’s very fitting Stream Team. We were awesome then.

Ahem. Without a 12-1 record to dominate things, only one 6-7 team managed to sneak in to the playoffs. Donel and I missed the playoffs for the first time, while Drew and Ryan Good finally made it in. With their inclusion, all of the remaining original founders of the league had made at least one playoff appearance. Kim: your time will come.

Playoff Roundup:

So our #1 seed, Mr. Good, managed, like Travis before him, to win no playoff games. In fact, the finale with Scott and Travis marked a matchup between the #5 and #6 seed. Bye weeks have done no favors for teams in our league. Of four teams who have ever had a bye week, only one has ever won their subsequent playoff game, and none have taken home the top prize. Are bye weeks the kiss of death? I hope so, since I’ll never have one.

In the category of Small Victories, just ‘cause, Peter ascended from #10 to #7 after demolishing the losers bracket. I was spared the ultimate shame by besting Donel in the 9th place game.

Fun facts!

This marked the first season Jason did not have the most transactions. Scott easily bested him, with 50, a record low.
Goodness gracious: Scott has finished #2, #1, and #1 in three season. That is startlingly consistent. I smell dynasty.
I was nearly as consistent, finishing (regular season) #7, #6, and #7. Somehow it seems less impressive.
Donel and I played 4 times this season (the record to this point), including meeting 3 times in the last four weeks. That is ridiculous. He was my scheduled Week 13 game (which I lost), then I met him in Round 1 of the losers bracket (losing to him again), then after I got stomped by Peter, met him in the 9th place game, finally emerging victorious. Freedom!
Ryan started the season 7-0...but failed to meltdown until the playoffs. Still happened, though.
Kim actually started 0-7, then won 4 of 6 in the regular season and 2 of 3 in the consolation bracket, showing that she wasn’t a total pushover, all the time.
Peter boasts the longest losing streak with 8 straight losses after a 2-2 start.
This season marked the first time Jason didn’t finish in the top 2, eventually landing in position #6. That makes, to this point, Travis the only person not named Scott or Jason to play for a championship.

Whew! That was a lot of data to crunch. In doing so, I also tallied my win/loss record against each of the teams in our league...

Vs. Scott: 4-5 (including this week’s loss)
Vs. Jason: 4-1
Vs. Peter: 5-2
Vs. Kyle: 1-6 (the only win coming in the 5th place game way back in Season 1)
Vs. Ryan: 3-4
Vs. Donel: 2-7
Vs. Drew: 1-2-1
Vs. Travis: 2-2
Vs. Kim: 1-1

It’s strange how it’s worked out that I’ve never played Drew or Travis more than once per season...Yet have faced Donel and Scott 9 times each. I’m using this determination to make Donel and Scott my in-division rivals...which means during rivalry games I’m an anemic 6-12. Bet the house on me when I play Jason and Peter, though, which appear to be very favorable match ups for me. And I’ve never beat Kyle in a non-consolation matchup...which sounds about right.

I'm considering splitting the league into divisions next year. This wouldn't be a scenario where the top 3 teams in each division make the playoffs (which I find unfair, as inevitably some #4 team gets passed over due to their conference being stronger), but it would help preserve some of these beautiful rivalry games. Speaking of rivalry games...

Playoff Picture 

Now that I've gotten that aside out of the way...here's our CURRENT set of playoff ready teams:

#1 Kyle and #2 Drew get their fancy little first round byes, while
#3 Travis plays #6 Scott and
#4 Donel plays #5 Rob

First, from our little tour of the league's history you've noticed that #1 seeds tend to do VERY poorly in the playoffs. Also, if you take a look at the teams that have finished #1 (Kyle, Travis, and Ryan Good), you'll note that none of these teams have ever taken home the big prize. In fact, none of the #1 seeds have ever ended up better than 4th overall...which means none of them have ever won a playoff game. In fact, only one team who had a bye week (Jason in Season 2) has ever won the game following the bye. Traditionally, the seeding in our league doesn't mean shit...which is good for lil 'ol #5...myself

The road to the finals ultimately goes through Scott, in my opinion. As He-Who-Puts-Up-120+-Points-Weekly is no doubt aware, we were all TREMBLING IN OUR BOOTS when it came to figuring out who would play him. That unlucky person is Travis, who has had his fair share of losing to Scott in the playoffs to understand the dire position he is in. That game might be a massacre.

The far more interesting game is actually the one between Donel and myself, which represents--wait for it--a battle between the two worst teams in the playoffs that will guarantee one of them advances further than either has any right to. In fact, if the winner of this game then goes on to play Kyle (arguably the third worst playoff team), we could realistically have a championship game contender who isn't able to score more than 70 points week in and week out. Yikes.

Also, mentioned in the history, the game between Donel and myself is a RIVALRY GAME! I'm a mighty 2-7 versus D Money, though one of those wins comes in the crucial 9th place game of Season 3. Beware Don-EZ. I'm coming for you.

Now that I've successfully sorted through our league archives, I'm now going to get to work to analyzing this season. I'll have plenty of time to do so once I lose another playoff game, sending myself to 0-3 all time. I'm the Detroit Lions of fantasy football.

On the plus side: even as Scott roles to an inevitable third straight victory, people of our fantasy football league rejoice! The once dreaded Fever has finished the season in 9th and cannot contend for the title. You will not hold sway over our court any more, tyrant! Scott, please continue your despotic ways.

One Last Thing 

I should comment on the flurry of trophies that were awarded today. Kyle won the award both for best record and for least points scored against him (I made that a "positive" aware at the beginning of the season...which I might need to change).

Scott scored the most points during the season (what a shocker, right?). Jason had the most points scored against him...and Peter scored the least. Congrats to Peter to not breaking 1000 for the season! To think he could have made the playoffs. 

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

The Year End Edition

Year End? What? We're not even done with the regular season! While I know that's true, next week is going to have a pretty heavy playoff focus element, so right now I wanted to take a look at how each of us fared throughout the season. I'll start with...

The Eliminated 

Kim: Hasselbeck's Last Stand (4-8)

It's kind of sad that there's only one team that's mathematically eliminated from the playoffs at this point. It's especially sad that it's Kim, because this represents the second year of her suckitude. She wasn't last, last year (and she may not be this year), but Kim continues to underperform.

Where do I start in analyzing this team? Kim's team is both a wealth of talent and a wastelands of poor decisions. Case in point: her roster includes Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, and Eli Manning.

I don't think I'm alone in the opinion that YOU SHOULD NEVER HAVE MORE THAN TWO REASONABLE STARTING QBs. Ideally, you wouldn't have more than one. Every team needs a) a solid starter, and b) a second-tier QB who has the chance to put together a monster season (See Orton, Kyle) who can step in if said starter gets hurt, has a bye, or is Brett Favre. If at any point a person finds themselves with three very reasonable starting QBs...trade one. Seek out a trade! Kim had these three QBs when I was still relying on the Favre/Cutler combo of doom and, subsequently, when I was desperately seeking a new QB. Kim could have taken me for a ride if she'd offered a trade...instead I gave up Hines Ward for Orton (in retrospect, genius).

I'm not really sure why there aren't more trades in general...we all seem to hold our players extra close to our chests. I understand the whole "don't trade with Bob," aspect of the game, but come on. Kim, you should have traded with someone.

Meanwhile...Kim's team is the most shallow in the league. I'm not going to deny that she had some players totally work out for her (here's looking at you, BenJarvus), but once you get back her top three RBs and top two WRs (who have had spotty season, BTW)...there's just those extra QBs that she can't play. WHY HAVEN'T YOU TRADED MATT RYAN FOR SOMEONE AWESOME? It's not like you're going to bench Tom Brady (fun fact: Kim did bench him twice, though once he was on a bye. She then played Manning over Ryan. #@!#!#!?? Brady had 32 pts the game he was benched).

Verdict: Kim, like Al Davis before her, is stuck in a rut. She made poor managerial decisions, wasted her roster space, and ultimately eliminated herself from the hunt. Next year?

The Guaranteed 

Kyle: Team Buffalo (9-3)

Hello #1 seed in the playoffs! So my sinister plan for Kyle not to make the playoffs didn't pan out. That being said, I'm not too sad about that! Kyle is the least intimidating #1 seed I can imagine. Kyle has scored less than 90 points 8 times out of twelve games. He's a lucky motherfucker...no ifs ands or buts (My Mini-Mental = 30). His team isn't explosive (though it has blown up for 114 against me, before), and the drop off from his stars (Peyton, MJD) to the people he has to start due to depth issues (Malcolm Floyd, Cadillac Williams) explains why he's such a consistent 83-91 pointer. He's scored in that range for 50% of his games. With teams like Scott threatening to be involved in the playoffs, this will not cut it. Great fear!

Not like it matters. Who else wins with 59 pts? Oh, that's right. Peter.

Verdict: Team Buffalo is our equivalent to the Indianapolis Colts. They're still pretty good, but they don't seem nearly as invincible as they once were...and Peyton is running scared.


Travis: My Team (7-5)
Drew: Team Frum (6-5-1)
Rob: Benson of Sam (6-5-1)

First, let's talk about Travis. I'm legitimately concerned around Travis' team...and by concerned, I mean, shit, I don't want to play Travis. However, he's only the third most concerning team that could make the playoffs right now, so in the grand scheme of things, he's pretty benign. Travis puts up plenty of points...and on the back of White Boy Running Back #1 (my personal favorite), he's been riding some pretty good 100+ point weeks. That being said...those WRs! It's not that they're even bad...it's that none of them are reliable. They could each put up 15 or 0 on any given day, which doesn't really fly in the playoffs.

Fun fact: Drew has put up 427 points in the past four games. Does anyone feel great about playing Drew in the playoffs? I'll admit having left Drew's team for dead after a truly wretched 2-5 start. He hasn't lost a game since Week 7, during which time he's an electric 4-0-1. Drew's got WRs down pat; while not necessarily 30 pointers (don't put it past them), he's also got a lack of truly sucky players. Except for his RBs...which hopefully will be his downfall.

Confession: Besides being busy, I didn't want to write another post because I didn't want to jinx myself into not making the playoffs. Remember how I said I just needed to win 1 of 4 games to make the playoffs? Whew! Really had to work for that one. I would dare say that, along with Kyle, I am the least frightening playoff team. I'd barely be a playoff team if not for a pretty lucky tie with Drew. That being said, here's a question:

Who got off better with a "tie," me, or Drew?
Answer: Drew. Ultimately, what the tie did for both of us is guarantee us that tiebreakers wouldn't need to come into play...because we'd essentially each win all of them. No one can tie for my record...except for Drew. In the case of a tied series, the next tiebreaker is points for...of which Drew has 1107 and I have 1026. What this means to me is that, while the #2 playoff spot (and accompanying bye week) are still up for grabs, I can't tie with Drew and take that spot...unless I score 81 more points than him this week. And since Drew is playing Travis, who must lose for us to even have a shot at the spot, I'm at the point where I can't pass Drew if he wins (Even if I win), but can't beat Travis even if Drew loses. Game, set, match. Technically, at this point, Travis holds the tiebreaker over Drew...but remember, Drew can't tie records with Travis, so if he wins, he gets a bye week by default! Epic comeback!

The Pack 

Donel: D Money All Day (6-6)
Ryan: The Goods (6-6)
Scott: Prestige Worldwide (5-7)
Peter: Mile High Club (5-7)
Jason: Grand Mal Fitz (5-7)

Yet there can be only two. Scott is easily the person I least want to see in the playoffs. Besides the fact that I would love for Jason and Scott to both miss the playoffs of the Fever-Baker Dynasty League, I'm scurred of Scott's team. He has scored over 100 for 6 straight games...the fact that he has lost two of those is both curious and unlucky. His team is a monster. I do NOT want to deal with that...in any way shape or form. Now Jason, I wouldn't even be that mad at if I had to play him. Don't be fooled by that 100+ score this week! Jason is a team of sub-60 point weeks (see weeks 7 and 9) interspersed in a sea of mediocre 70/80 scores. Props for the name, though. I love names that are a) clever, and b) medically themed.

I hate names that are simple derivations of last names. This, by definition, means I am unable to in good faith cheer on "The Goods" (or "The Frum," though I actually kind of like Frum as a word). Ryan's team is actually the one that most mirrors mine in terms of points for and against. We're both spotty, threatening in small bursts, but prone to epic meltdowns. And the playoffs have no room for two does of mediocrity!

I've been dazzled all season by Donel's team...but after putting up 47 points against Kyle's fat amoeba of a team, I'm beginning to doubt. Without Chris Johnson, Donel's team is nothing. I've said that before. He's a 50-65 point team + Chris Johnson...which sometimes means 45 extra points. Donel is living and dying by one player. Concern!

Finally, my good friend (?) Peter. Let's pause for a minute and notice that Peter has scored 877 points this season. The only other person under 1000 is Kim, who has scored 996. Peter has scored 119 less points that his closest competition in points suckage, which is just a smidge less than 10 points a game. The points leader, Scott, has scored 325 more points that Peter this season...or about 27 more points per game. Peter is 27 points a week worse than Scott, yet they have the same record. IS THIS EPICALLY UNFAIR? I think so.

So here's what our possible scenarios are for the playoffs

Kyle can finish: #1

Travis can finish:
#2 with a win over Drew
#3 with a loss to Drew AND a Rob loses AND Ryan loses (Ryan has tiebreaker on Travis)
#4 with a loss AND loss by Rob OR Ryan
#5 with a loss [and none of the above criteria are met]

Drew can finish:
#2 with a win over Travis
#3 with a loss AND Rob loses AND Donel loses AND Ryan loses
#4 with a loss AND at least 2 of Rob, Donel and Ryan lose
#5 with a loss AND Rob loses OR Donel loses OR Ryan loses
#6 with a loss [and none of the above criteria are met]

Rob can finish:
#2 if he somehow wins and scores 81 more points than Drew, who also must win. Not happening.
#3 with a win
#4 with a loss AND Donel loses AND Ryan loses
#5 with a loss AND Donel loses OR Ryan loses
#6 with a loss [and none of the above criteria are met]

Ryan can finish:
#3 with a win AND Rob loses AND Donel loses
#4 with a win AND Rob loses OR Donel loses
#5 with a win (and none of the above) or with a loss AND Donel loses AND Scott loses (Scott and Donel both have tiebreaker over Ryan)
#6 with a loss AND Scott loses OR Donel loses

[ONLY Scott and Donel can beat Ryan for a spot in the playoffs, if tied]

Donel can finish:
#3 with a win AND Drew loses AND Rob loses
#4 with a win AND Drew loses OR Rob loses
#5 with a win (and none of the above) or with a loss AND Ryan loses AND Scott loses (Scott has a tiebreaker on Donel, too) AND Jason wins by less than 27
#6 with a loss AND Ryan loses AND EITHER Scott loses OR Jason wins by less than 27

[ONLY Scott or Jason (if he scores >27 pts more than Donel) can pass Donel for a playoff spot.]

Scott can finish:
#6 with a win AND Ryan loses (since Scott loses a tiebreaker to Jason but wins one with Donel, a Donel loss will put Jason in front of him, and a Jason loss will put Donel in front of him, so that game is moot)

Jason can finish:
#6 with a win by more than 27 points AND Scott loses (Scott holds the tiebreaker)

Peter can finish: not in the playoffs after all! He loses a tiebreaker to Scott, Ryan, and Donel. He only beats Jason in tiebreakers. He CANNOT pass Kyle/Travis/Drew/Myself based on record, and since Donel and Ryan will at minimum finish 6-7 and he cannot pass either, he's toast. Better luck next year!

I hope that was enlightening...now I need to go to bed. If you thought this involved some numbers crunching, wait until you see what I'm planning for when the playoffs are over!