The Year End Edition

Year End? What? We're not even done with the regular season! While I know that's true, next week is going to have a pretty heavy playoff focus element, so right now I wanted to take a look at how each of us fared throughout the season. I'll start with...

The Eliminated 

Kim: Hasselbeck's Last Stand (4-8)

It's kind of sad that there's only one team that's mathematically eliminated from the playoffs at this point. It's especially sad that it's Kim, because this represents the second year of her suckitude. She wasn't last, last year (and she may not be this year), but Kim continues to underperform.

Where do I start in analyzing this team? Kim's team is both a wealth of talent and a wastelands of poor decisions. Case in point: her roster includes Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, and Eli Manning.

I don't think I'm alone in the opinion that YOU SHOULD NEVER HAVE MORE THAN TWO REASONABLE STARTING QBs. Ideally, you wouldn't have more than one. Every team needs a) a solid starter, and b) a second-tier QB who has the chance to put together a monster season (See Orton, Kyle) who can step in if said starter gets hurt, has a bye, or is Brett Favre. If at any point a person finds themselves with three very reasonable starting QBs...trade one. Seek out a trade! Kim had these three QBs when I was still relying on the Favre/Cutler combo of doom and, subsequently, when I was desperately seeking a new QB. Kim could have taken me for a ride if she'd offered a trade...instead I gave up Hines Ward for Orton (in retrospect, genius).

I'm not really sure why there aren't more trades in general...we all seem to hold our players extra close to our chests. I understand the whole "don't trade with Bob," aspect of the game, but come on. Kim, you should have traded with someone.

Meanwhile...Kim's team is the most shallow in the league. I'm not going to deny that she had some players totally work out for her (here's looking at you, BenJarvus), but once you get back her top three RBs and top two WRs (who have had spotty season, BTW)...there's just those extra QBs that she can't play. WHY HAVEN'T YOU TRADED MATT RYAN FOR SOMEONE AWESOME? It's not like you're going to bench Tom Brady (fun fact: Kim did bench him twice, though once he was on a bye. She then played Manning over Ryan. #@!#!#!?? Brady had 32 pts the game he was benched).

Verdict: Kim, like Al Davis before her, is stuck in a rut. She made poor managerial decisions, wasted her roster space, and ultimately eliminated herself from the hunt. Next year?

The Guaranteed 

Kyle: Team Buffalo (9-3)

Hello #1 seed in the playoffs! So my sinister plan for Kyle not to make the playoffs didn't pan out. That being said, I'm not too sad about that! Kyle is the least intimidating #1 seed I can imagine. Kyle has scored less than 90 points 8 times out of twelve games. He's a lucky motherfucker...no ifs ands or buts (My Mini-Mental = 30). His team isn't explosive (though it has blown up for 114 against me, before), and the drop off from his stars (Peyton, MJD) to the people he has to start due to depth issues (Malcolm Floyd, Cadillac Williams) explains why he's such a consistent 83-91 pointer. He's scored in that range for 50% of his games. With teams like Scott threatening to be involved in the playoffs, this will not cut it. Great fear!

Not like it matters. Who else wins with 59 pts? Oh, that's right. Peter.

Verdict: Team Buffalo is our equivalent to the Indianapolis Colts. They're still pretty good, but they don't seem nearly as invincible as they once were...and Peyton is running scared.


Travis: My Team (7-5)
Drew: Team Frum (6-5-1)
Rob: Benson of Sam (6-5-1)

First, let's talk about Travis. I'm legitimately concerned around Travis' team...and by concerned, I mean, shit, I don't want to play Travis. However, he's only the third most concerning team that could make the playoffs right now, so in the grand scheme of things, he's pretty benign. Travis puts up plenty of points...and on the back of White Boy Running Back #1 (my personal favorite), he's been riding some pretty good 100+ point weeks. That being said...those WRs! It's not that they're even bad...it's that none of them are reliable. They could each put up 15 or 0 on any given day, which doesn't really fly in the playoffs.

Fun fact: Drew has put up 427 points in the past four games. Does anyone feel great about playing Drew in the playoffs? I'll admit having left Drew's team for dead after a truly wretched 2-5 start. He hasn't lost a game since Week 7, during which time he's an electric 4-0-1. Drew's got WRs down pat; while not necessarily 30 pointers (don't put it past them), he's also got a lack of truly sucky players. Except for his RBs...which hopefully will be his downfall.

Confession: Besides being busy, I didn't want to write another post because I didn't want to jinx myself into not making the playoffs. Remember how I said I just needed to win 1 of 4 games to make the playoffs? Whew! Really had to work for that one. I would dare say that, along with Kyle, I am the least frightening playoff team. I'd barely be a playoff team if not for a pretty lucky tie with Drew. That being said, here's a question:

Who got off better with a "tie," me, or Drew?
Answer: Drew. Ultimately, what the tie did for both of us is guarantee us that tiebreakers wouldn't need to come into play...because we'd essentially each win all of them. No one can tie for my record...except for Drew. In the case of a tied series, the next tiebreaker is points for...of which Drew has 1107 and I have 1026. What this means to me is that, while the #2 playoff spot (and accompanying bye week) are still up for grabs, I can't tie with Drew and take that spot...unless I score 81 more points than him this week. And since Drew is playing Travis, who must lose for us to even have a shot at the spot, I'm at the point where I can't pass Drew if he wins (Even if I win), but can't beat Travis even if Drew loses. Game, set, match. Technically, at this point, Travis holds the tiebreaker over Drew...but remember, Drew can't tie records with Travis, so if he wins, he gets a bye week by default! Epic comeback!

The Pack 

Donel: D Money All Day (6-6)
Ryan: The Goods (6-6)
Scott: Prestige Worldwide (5-7)
Peter: Mile High Club (5-7)
Jason: Grand Mal Fitz (5-7)

Yet there can be only two. Scott is easily the person I least want to see in the playoffs. Besides the fact that I would love for Jason and Scott to both miss the playoffs of the Fever-Baker Dynasty League, I'm scurred of Scott's team. He has scored over 100 for 6 straight games...the fact that he has lost two of those is both curious and unlucky. His team is a monster. I do NOT want to deal with that...in any way shape or form. Now Jason, I wouldn't even be that mad at if I had to play him. Don't be fooled by that 100+ score this week! Jason is a team of sub-60 point weeks (see weeks 7 and 9) interspersed in a sea of mediocre 70/80 scores. Props for the name, though. I love names that are a) clever, and b) medically themed.

I hate names that are simple derivations of last names. This, by definition, means I am unable to in good faith cheer on "The Goods" (or "The Frum," though I actually kind of like Frum as a word). Ryan's team is actually the one that most mirrors mine in terms of points for and against. We're both spotty, threatening in small bursts, but prone to epic meltdowns. And the playoffs have no room for two does of mediocrity!

I've been dazzled all season by Donel's team...but after putting up 47 points against Kyle's fat amoeba of a team, I'm beginning to doubt. Without Chris Johnson, Donel's team is nothing. I've said that before. He's a 50-65 point team + Chris Johnson...which sometimes means 45 extra points. Donel is living and dying by one player. Concern!

Finally, my good friend (?) Peter. Let's pause for a minute and notice that Peter has scored 877 points this season. The only other person under 1000 is Kim, who has scored 996. Peter has scored 119 less points that his closest competition in points suckage, which is just a smidge less than 10 points a game. The points leader, Scott, has scored 325 more points that Peter this season...or about 27 more points per game. Peter is 27 points a week worse than Scott, yet they have the same record. IS THIS EPICALLY UNFAIR? I think so.

So here's what our possible scenarios are for the playoffs

Kyle can finish: #1

Travis can finish:
#2 with a win over Drew
#3 with a loss to Drew AND a Rob loses AND Ryan loses (Ryan has tiebreaker on Travis)
#4 with a loss AND loss by Rob OR Ryan
#5 with a loss [and none of the above criteria are met]

Drew can finish:
#2 with a win over Travis
#3 with a loss AND Rob loses AND Donel loses AND Ryan loses
#4 with a loss AND at least 2 of Rob, Donel and Ryan lose
#5 with a loss AND Rob loses OR Donel loses OR Ryan loses
#6 with a loss [and none of the above criteria are met]

Rob can finish:
#2 if he somehow wins and scores 81 more points than Drew, who also must win. Not happening.
#3 with a win
#4 with a loss AND Donel loses AND Ryan loses
#5 with a loss AND Donel loses OR Ryan loses
#6 with a loss [and none of the above criteria are met]

Ryan can finish:
#3 with a win AND Rob loses AND Donel loses
#4 with a win AND Rob loses OR Donel loses
#5 with a win (and none of the above) or with a loss AND Donel loses AND Scott loses (Scott and Donel both have tiebreaker over Ryan)
#6 with a loss AND Scott loses OR Donel loses

[ONLY Scott and Donel can beat Ryan for a spot in the playoffs, if tied]

Donel can finish:
#3 with a win AND Drew loses AND Rob loses
#4 with a win AND Drew loses OR Rob loses
#5 with a win (and none of the above) or with a loss AND Ryan loses AND Scott loses (Scott has a tiebreaker on Donel, too) AND Jason wins by less than 27
#6 with a loss AND Ryan loses AND EITHER Scott loses OR Jason wins by less than 27

[ONLY Scott or Jason (if he scores >27 pts more than Donel) can pass Donel for a playoff spot.]

Scott can finish:
#6 with a win AND Ryan loses (since Scott loses a tiebreaker to Jason but wins one with Donel, a Donel loss will put Jason in front of him, and a Jason loss will put Donel in front of him, so that game is moot)

Jason can finish:
#6 with a win by more than 27 points AND Scott loses (Scott holds the tiebreaker)

Peter can finish: not in the playoffs after all! He loses a tiebreaker to Scott, Ryan, and Donel. He only beats Jason in tiebreakers. He CANNOT pass Kyle/Travis/Drew/Myself based on record, and since Donel and Ryan will at minimum finish 6-7 and he cannot pass either, he's toast. Better luck next year!

I hope that was enlightening...now I need to go to bed. If you thought this involved some numbers crunching, wait until you see what I'm planning for when the playoffs are over!