WNQ Week 10: Alas, Poor Godin

[image]http://hectorsanzbritz.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/tenant-hamlet-415x275.jpg[/image]
[i]The skull is Jon Godin's spirit.[/i]

So as many of you know from my frantic text-storm, Jon Godin has excused himself from our fantasy football league. I’m keeping his email for my records, but if anyone wishes to see it, I can forward it along. It sounds like he’s just too busy to manage a FF team, which has happened to all of us.

In the subsequent vote, five teams voted to find a new owner of the team, and six voted to leave the team as is. Technically Ryan Davis’ vote doesn’t count (though I can’t say there is much precedence for this), but regardless, Jon’s team will stand as a shell to remind us of its former owner.

We’ll obviously address this issue further at the end of the season, especially because this does bring up many questions. Our league can’t function with an odd number of teams (well, it can, but that’s stupid).  So as if the process of confirming or denying the new managers acceptance to the leave wasn’t complicated enough, now Ryan/A is in the unenviable position of knowing his fate is directly tied to the acceptance of a 12 player who is as of yet unnamed. Very complicated.

[b]This is the Recap: Eight Talking Points From Week 9[/b]

1) I had a conversation with Travis before the games last week and he said his team was “in trouble” and that it was extremely lucky he was playing Jon. 135 points (including 51 from Doug Martin) later, Travis more or less put that thought to rest. Travis’ team is a monster. Is this the year Travis will finally break the curse? He’s aligning himself as the perfect team to take it all: he’s heating up towards the end, has a couple monstrous sleeper players, and is in 2nd place for the foreseeable future. We all know the first place team never wins. Travis has positioned himself brilliantly for a playoff push

2) Speaking of Doug Martin, his 51 points is the best single fantasy week our league has ever seen (though not the biggest ever. Shaun Alexander had a 52, once, I believe). He takes the top spot not only on the RB board (over Chris Johnson, 45 points for Kim in Season 3, Week 2), but on the overall board as well (over Michael Vick’s 49 points for Scott in Season 4, Week 10). Doug Martin! I barely know who that is. Who names a RB Doug Martin, anyway?  He has neither a hyphen nor a double Z in his name. He must be made up.

3) What a week for defenses! While I don’t think my team needed much help beating an anemic Team Buffalo, the 25 points the Chargers gave me (#11 all time D/ST, #3 on the year) didn’t hurt and helped me look respectable. Drew, meanwhile, managed a 24 point win over Scott (more on that in a bit) with 26 points from the Bears (#9 all time D/ST, #2 on the year). Scott’s bottom line, too, was helped by the 21 points the Saints D/ST put up against Philadelphia. As Peter would say, “TAINT!”

4) Kim pulls a fast one this week with her SECOND tie of the season. Now, I never took a statistics class, so I’m not sure how to do the math, but it seems highly improbably that we would end up with this many ties. We had two ties over the course of the first four seasons. In the past two we have had five, and three of those belong to Kim.  While this is not the first time a player has finished with two ties in one season (See: Travis Langley, Season 5, 7-4-2), I’m not quite sure how this keeps happening. It’s like we’re getting struck but lightning over and over. IT MAKES NO SENSE. More problematic for me is that it wreaks havoc with the standings. What kind of record is 3-4-2? I’m hoping Kim finishes out with one win and two more ties so she can end up 4-4-4.

5) The Haves and Have Nots Part II: The top five teams all won last week. To that statistic even more ridiculous, teams number 6 and 7 decided to just tie. Stupid Peter. This is his fault.

6) The return of Scotty Bake? Remember when Scott used to dominate the league? Serenity Now, Double Dwayne Bowe, Rogue Peanuts: those were some good teams. Scotty Bake reigned supreme during Seasons 1-3, claiming two titles and one runner-up title. He slowed in recent years, finishing 5th-6th afterwards, but he has never missed the playoffs and has proved himself surprisingly feisty. But that Scotty Bake seems to be no more. Papa Scott has been popping a squat all over the league this season; the only person he’s beating isn’t even actually playing. And while Scott suffered another defeat this week, his team suddenly has a spark of life. 109 points is nothing to scoff at. While it could all end up as fluke, I think there’s a little bit of Scotty Bake left in the decaying, malignant team that’s currently stinking up the bottom of the standings.

7) Jason: still winning. Don’t you just hate him?

8) While this isn’t a stat I keep track of, I’m curious if anyone can find something who has had less bench points than Travis did last week (4, all from one player). Travis may be riding high but I don’t think he can really lose any other players. Things are looking a little thin over in Hotlanta.

[b]Rivalry Week: Part II[/b]

The Lawrence House 2nd Floor Trophy: Ryan/B vs. Rob

Which of the (permanent) Lawrence upstairs-dwellers will take this inaugural trophy home? Will it be Ryan, he who cleans while he sleeps and farts like a rhino? Will it be myself, he who buys too much beer and occasionally vomits in his bed? Good money says “Rob,” but we all know anything is possible.

The “You Dented My Jeep” Jeep: Peter vs. Ryan/A

So back during M1 year, a bunch of us were out at the bars. I think it might have been the Brown Jug, but it very well could have been one of the many other bars we went to too often and drank too much. Davis had decided to drive us there (because too much alcohol means Ryan can’t get in a full 22 hours of studying the next day), so we took his jeep and had a good time. We all got pretty shitty.

I don’t remember the full details (obviously. Did you meet me M1 year?), but I know that Peter said something ridiculous and I jumped on his back. In retaliation he threw me into Ryan’s jeep. Now, this couldn’t have hurt me less; I had my beer armor on. The jeep, however, got a big old dent. Peter quickly turned to defense mode (“Rob, this is all your fault”), and our drunken yelling couldn’t convince him otherwise. Ryan Davis and Peter then passive-aggressively feuded for months, with Peter refusing to take responsibility. Ultimately, Ryan Davis and I (Ryan >> me) fixed the dent by pounding it out, more or less. I think Ryan/A might still be pissed. Now is his chance to get Peter back.

Drew vs. Godin: Cancelled

I had a decent story here, but there’s no point calling this a rivalry game when Godin is going to lose by 100 points and will never know the outcome.

The Radiology Board Test Answers: Travis vs. Scott

On a fundamental, basic level, this is a matchup between our two image reviewers. However, there is so much more to this rivalry. Travis and Scott are two of the class acts of our league, and both spend a lot of time thinking about fantasy football. This is kind of the Nebraska vs. Penn State game; both of these teams are respected but don’t really have much beef with each other. What I think this game does offer is a great sense of satisfaction for the winner, because I feel much more satisfied and accomplished after a win over Travis and Scott than with most other wins.

The Quiet One Cup: Kim vs. Donel

Kim and Donel are both very unassuming. They don’t trash talk much. They’re active but not boisterous/annoying like I am most of the time. They manage their teams and go about their business. They’re like postal workers; you never notice them until they light up the joint after they snap from overabuse.


Kyle vs. Jason

I’ve got a story for this but it will have to wait; I’m out of time and need to take call in the ICU. More later!

WNQ Week 9: The Homestretch...and Impeachment?

Should Jon stay in the league? Read below for an important league announcement.

Some of you may have heard the stories from the unfortunately-outcomed Michigan Nebraska game last weekend. While I’ve got a great story to tell about copious vomiting (Carissa and Nabeel), getting lost in Nebraska (Dane) and visiting the drunk tank (Sean and Lori, my fiancée), it’s a story best heard in person. Also, I’ve run out of time to write it all, as usual. So I’m going to stick with, you know, fantasy football, because that should, theoretically, he what this is all about.

The focus this week is on playoffs. We’ve officially got five more games until the end of the season, and things are beginning to look very good for certain teams, and very dire for others.

Week 8 Winners and Losers:

Winner: The Top 4

Last week was a good week for who I’m (currently) calling the Big Four: Drew, Travis, Ryan Davis, and myself. Now, it’s tough for me to use this term, because it’s really more of a Big Two and a Little Two; Travis and Drew have not only the two best records but also the highest point totals of any team. Davis and I are playing ugly but making it work, though we’re not so insurmountable that it’s unlikely that another team will pass us in the final standings. But with each of us winning last week, there is a steady widening of the gap between the haves and have nots.

Winner: Peter

That’s a statement you probably won’t hear again. Peter, the most maligned member of our league, who hasn’t made the playoffs since our inaugural, 8-team playoff season, with the second lowest percentage of all teams active before this year (40.2%, barely edging Kim’s 39.5%), and owner of two proud 10th place finishes and two 8th place finishes (his best finish: Season 1, 7th place), is suddenly relevant. His Week 8 win over everyone’s least favorite fantasy football player was the kind of statement win Peter needs moving forward to potentially make a playoff run. And he’s currently in 6th place! Peter hasn’t been in 6th place at anytime after the halfway-point of the season since Season 1. I know it’s premature to say Peter might just make a run, as karma has a way of smiting him, but things are certainly looking up for Mr. Unfortunate.

Loser: Jon Godin

I’m emailing a link of this post out to Godin this week because I’m fairly positive there is no way he’s logged into the league in three weeks. Let’s look at the evidence:

In Week 7, Godin failed to play an active RB and WR, despite having two active RBs and three active WRs on his roster. The outcome? 53 points in a blowout loss to Peter.

In Week 8, Godin failed to play an active RB, a FLEX, and a defense. He didn’t even bother picking up a D/ST to play, but did have two RBs on his bench that could have been used. The outcome? 49 points in a bad but not terrible loss to Ryan Bad.

Jon is on a 6 game losing streak, and may have just simply been ignoring his team without our knowing it for weeks now.

Jon has NEVER bid on a player in the Free Agent Auction. Don’t be confused by his $86 free agent auction budget remaining. He suffered $14 in penalties from not paying for 14 days after the deadline.

I find this disgraceful, for multiple reasons. I will start out by saying that I do not begrudge someone an occasional open slot. There are a variety of reasons that someone might not start a player, whether it be bad free agent auction luck (ala Jewish Malificent during Defensegate last year), active vomiting and hangover (Donel), or occasional absent-mindedness, which has hit us all once or twice. Repeated, flagrant lack of interest in your team, however, is unacceptable.

There are bigger issues at play, however. When Kyle got frustrated with Computer Buffalo Dung, he took it like a man, acknowledged it for what it was, and paid his fines like a man. Many players, including myself, are actively distressed when fate works against them and they are unable to start an active player. Jon has shown neither of these things…and likely does not even know a problem is occurring.

I texted Jon last week and told him to manage his fantasy football team. He gave a vague response. I’m not sure if we will see him again.

This brings us to a crossroads of sort. What is the best option? Jon, you shall recall, is currently in his probationary period, as is Ryan Davis. There is no chance Jon, in his current standing, will ever grace the league again. Is it possible he turns it around and makes himself into a respectable member of the league? Perhaps. He doesn’t have a bad team, and certainly has players some of us would kill for. What if he made some trades, was attentive to his team, active in our community, and made the playoffs? He might still be able to make a case of himself. This is unlikely, but possible.

Without a personal plea from the Godin himself, I think the more likely outcome is his being voted out of the league. Would it be more fair to call and emergency meeting and have it happen now? Should we vote at this moment to keep or lose Jon Godin? Should we disband his roster and have a lottery for collecting his players? Or should we just put all of his players on the bench? There’s also the option of bringing in another manager to help with his team. We’ve discussed both Tudor and Justin in the past, though who knows what their availability is. We also have the option of Dane, who apparently, unbeknownst to us, has been playing FF for years in smaller leagues. We do have a lot of options.

As I said before, I am going to email this post out to everyone so there is a chance Godin will see it and give him a chance to defend himself. I’m also going to put an informal poll (or two) on the front page, and I hope you will all vote over the weekend so I can get an idea of what people are thinking.

Loser: Kyle

Kyle, I love ya, but your team would have lost to Jon’s team of inactives this weak, which is no good.

The Playoff Picture

FF is notoriously unpredictable, but there have been trends in our league that have never been violated. For example, there has never been a team with seven wins who has NOT made the playoffs. In the same regard, there has never been a team with 5 wins who has made the playoffs. So the magic number all teams are looking for, wins-wise, is seven. At six wins, teams have a 60% chance of making the playoffs if we include all seasons; if we remove the 8 team playoff, 14 team league of season 1, that improves slightly to 61.5%. It is still unclear whether a 12-team league will give us more middling teams at 6 wins or more 12-1 monsters and 2-11 losers, so it’s hard to carry trends over into this season, but it should be a safe bet that 7 wins = playoffs.

Drew is already at 7 wins and is a safe bet for the playoffs. Travis is also essentially in, with two, count ‘em two games against Jon still to come.

There are then four other teams who have the chance to control their own destiny. With five games to play, my team is no guarantee for two more wins but I have the great fortune of playing Donel, Ryan Bad, and Kyle, both who are currently in the doldrums. Davis has an even more fortunate draw, with Donel, Jon, Ryan Bad and Scott on his ticket, as well as Peter’s average team. While neither of us are guarantees (we’re low scoring teams on a mission!), we’re both good if not great bets for the playoffs.

Jason and Peter are a bit more dicey. Jewish Malificent is facing four losing teams but those include Kim’s occasionally dangerous lineup, as well as his arch nemesis Bad Karma Peter. The Jason vs. Peter matchup will be a must win for Peter, as he also has to worry about Ryan/A and myself on his schedule.

Let’s make the presumption that neither Scott nor Godin will make the playoffs. Godin would need to, you know, play fantasy football in order to actually be competitive. Scott, at 2-5-1 really only needs four wins to make it into the playoffs as the T in his column gives him the ultimate tiebreaker. However, does anyone think Scott can win four of five games when his opponents include Travis, Drew, Ryan/A, and J. Malificent? Scott will be lucky to get away with two wins, and is likely out of the running.

That leaves Kim, Donel, Ryan/B, and Kyle on the outside looking in. Kim, with her tie, has the best chance to sneak into a final spot and could potentially get in with a 6-6-1 record. Assuming she will lose to Drew in her final game of the season, she needs to win 3 of 4 tough games against Peter, Donel, Kyle, and Jason. Not insurmountable, but iffy.

Donel’s 719 PF gives him the next best tiebreaker, essentially guaranteeing himself tiebreakers versus nearly every team not owned by Drew or Travis. He, however, needs to face both 5-3 teams in the league…though he also gets the consensus bottom 2, giving him a coin flip chance for a 6 win season.

Ryan/B may end up being undone by his schedule. Assuming he beats Jason this week (which is a poor assumption), he’d then need to beat two of the following four: myself, Travis, Peter, and Ryan/A. This seems unlikely, and I’m calling Ryan Good out of the running. Ditto for Kyle, who is playing five teams with a better record than him, including 4 of the top 5 teams.

As the season progresses, I’ll try to focus in on the key matchups with playoff implications. For now, I think the top 6 teams have a great chance to be the final ones standing, but time will tell…

Records

Here's a bonus for anyone who reads this on the site...not available via email!

Two records were set last week.

First, Rob Gronkowski's 26 points is in a tie for the second highest TE score of all time. For reference, Gronkowski now possesses 6 scores within the top 10.

Second, Peter got 19 points out of Lawrence Tynes (K), good for fourth place on the K list.

Fines:

Juan: $10 ($6 this week for three inactives) 

WNQ, Week 8: They Are Who We Thought They Were

I heard Jason made this

Here at midseason, there are still a lot of questions. Nine teams are within a tiebreaker of a playoff spot at this very second, and one of the highest scoring teams in the league is one game behind. Some good teams are struggling, and some bad teams are thriving. The biggest question I want to address this week is how having 12 teams is affecting our league.

I’ve heard Travis’ opinion on this, and it goes something like this: “Twelve teams are a mess. Everything is too close. What a disaster.” I’ve also heard positivity about what the shake up does to the dynamic of the league, or specifically, the fact that average teams can no longer coast into the playoffs at spot #6. You’ve got to earn it. I think there are multiple sides of the issue, which I’d like to examine.

Opinion 1: Everybody is scoring less this year because more teams mean fewer stars per team and lower overall scores

I was a big proponent of this opinion. The logic makes sense. With ten FF teams, each team could theoretically get a top 10 QB, top 10 TE, 3 top 30 RBs and WRs, and a decent D/ST and K. This is already numerically impossible with 12 teams, and then when the random luck factor of finding the next big thing comes into play, we should end up with lower scoring teams.

And we have. Last year, in the first seven weeks of the season, there were 29 times that a team scored over 100 points, and seven of those were over 130 points. This year? Only twenty teams have had a score over 100 points, and only two were over 130. That’s a fairly significant decline. The argument many have made is that this is due to our expansion.

But here’s an interesting data point: so far this year we have had only two individual player records in our league; one QB, one K. At the same point last year, there were twelve. While I can’t use this data to say the 12-team league is not causing scores to drop overall, it does point out a larger trend at work: FF scores across the NFL are down. There have been less blow-out performances by elite players this year; even “fantastic” weeks by players are well below those from years’ past.

Opinion 2: 12-teams will create more parity, and a logjam in the middle

Multiple people have told me this…but I’m not sure exactly what the reasoning is. A league will have more parity if there are a variety of teams with similar levels of skill. The argument that a 12-team league is more likely to have this than a 10-team league doesn’t stand up, mathematically. Everyone has the same resources and will live and die about their decision on how to use those resources.

There are currently 7 teams within one game of .500. If this plays out and those seven teams stay at that level, that will be only one more team at that score than our previous high of 6 teams, which occurred twice. In our four years as a 10-team league, we average 47.5% of teams finishing within one game of .500. With 12-teams, we’re at a paltry 58% of teams at this level, and the previous average is weighed down heavily by the have or have nots season of Computer Buffalo Dung. As of right now, we’re pretty close, but not so close that I can blame the 12-team format.

Opinion 3: Ryan Davis and Jon Godin will be destroyed

This is kind of a two-parter. Many people assumed Davis would go down in flames, given his a) Legendarily bad season 1 performance and b) predilection to neglect his social life to read one more chapter of his textbooks. The same was assumed for Godin, mostly because of his schedule (Ortho = workhorse) and his relative newness to FF.

The answer to this is also a two-parter. Davis has surprised. Currently sitting in 5th place, Davis has had some bad weeks but has managed overall not to embarrass himself. He sets his line up every week and is an overall non-detriment to the league, which would have been unheard of a few years ago.

Godin’s fate, on the other hand, is yet to be determined. He started with a bang and has the 145-point week game to prove it. Since then he’s been on a steady decent into sadness, and his recent failure to put up a full roster makes me question his commitment. I don’t know what happened to him this week, but we’ll see how he recovers.

Outcomes of Note During Week 7

Pigs Flying: I have the highest score of the week! I would take more pride in this, but Scott’s team is terrible and it’s hard to feel good about beating him. It’s like if we went to war with Somalia; there’s just no pride in that victory.

Shame of Fools: Jon Godin, really? You fail to start a RB and WR despite having both, active, on your bench? Sometimes fate conspires against us to get the players we want, but there is no excuse to not taking the five minutes necessary to just set an active line up. Shame x2: It led to a Peter win!

Descent Into Hell?: As you may have noticed, I’m in 4th place this week, which is shameful enough for our league. However, to do this needed an epic feat: I needed to win, Davis needed to lose, and I needed to outscore him by 50 points. As a team that has broken 90 points just once before this game, I haven’t really outscored anyone by 50 points this entire season. Yet somehow I scored 107 and Ryan scored 57, leading to a statistical tie of PF. Since I beat Ryan Davis this season, that gives me the tie breaker! The rub: Ryan Davis is quickly descending into terribleness.

Update: Kyle drafting himself = only slightly better than the computer drafting for him

Trophies

I have minimal to say about these, but expect them to pop up in your trophy boxes soon when I find the proper pictures.

Fines

Jon Godin: $4

Other…

This is a short post as I’ve got to get ready for the MI vs NE game! More next week…