WNQ, Week 8: They Are Who We Thought They Were

I heard Jason made this

Here at midseason, there are still a lot of questions. Nine teams are within a tiebreaker of a playoff spot at this very second, and one of the highest scoring teams in the league is one game behind. Some good teams are struggling, and some bad teams are thriving. The biggest question I want to address this week is how having 12 teams is affecting our league.

I’ve heard Travis’ opinion on this, and it goes something like this: “Twelve teams are a mess. Everything is too close. What a disaster.” I’ve also heard positivity about what the shake up does to the dynamic of the league, or specifically, the fact that average teams can no longer coast into the playoffs at spot #6. You’ve got to earn it. I think there are multiple sides of the issue, which I’d like to examine.

Opinion 1: Everybody is scoring less this year because more teams mean fewer stars per team and lower overall scores

I was a big proponent of this opinion. The logic makes sense. With ten FF teams, each team could theoretically get a top 10 QB, top 10 TE, 3 top 30 RBs and WRs, and a decent D/ST and K. This is already numerically impossible with 12 teams, and then when the random luck factor of finding the next big thing comes into play, we should end up with lower scoring teams.

And we have. Last year, in the first seven weeks of the season, there were 29 times that a team scored over 100 points, and seven of those were over 130 points. This year? Only twenty teams have had a score over 100 points, and only two were over 130. That’s a fairly significant decline. The argument many have made is that this is due to our expansion.

But here’s an interesting data point: so far this year we have had only two individual player records in our league; one QB, one K. At the same point last year, there were twelve. While I can’t use this data to say the 12-team league is not causing scores to drop overall, it does point out a larger trend at work: FF scores across the NFL are down. There have been less blow-out performances by elite players this year; even “fantastic” weeks by players are well below those from years’ past.

Opinion 2: 12-teams will create more parity, and a logjam in the middle

Multiple people have told me this…but I’m not sure exactly what the reasoning is. A league will have more parity if there are a variety of teams with similar levels of skill. The argument that a 12-team league is more likely to have this than a 10-team league doesn’t stand up, mathematically. Everyone has the same resources and will live and die about their decision on how to use those resources.

There are currently 7 teams within one game of .500. If this plays out and those seven teams stay at that level, that will be only one more team at that score than our previous high of 6 teams, which occurred twice. In our four years as a 10-team league, we average 47.5% of teams finishing within one game of .500. With 12-teams, we’re at a paltry 58% of teams at this level, and the previous average is weighed down heavily by the have or have nots season of Computer Buffalo Dung. As of right now, we’re pretty close, but not so close that I can blame the 12-team format.

Opinion 3: Ryan Davis and Jon Godin will be destroyed

This is kind of a two-parter. Many people assumed Davis would go down in flames, given his a) Legendarily bad season 1 performance and b) predilection to neglect his social life to read one more chapter of his textbooks. The same was assumed for Godin, mostly because of his schedule (Ortho = workhorse) and his relative newness to FF.

The answer to this is also a two-parter. Davis has surprised. Currently sitting in 5th place, Davis has had some bad weeks but has managed overall not to embarrass himself. He sets his line up every week and is an overall non-detriment to the league, which would have been unheard of a few years ago.

Godin’s fate, on the other hand, is yet to be determined. He started with a bang and has the 145-point week game to prove it. Since then he’s been on a steady decent into sadness, and his recent failure to put up a full roster makes me question his commitment. I don’t know what happened to him this week, but we’ll see how he recovers.

Outcomes of Note During Week 7

Pigs Flying: I have the highest score of the week! I would take more pride in this, but Scott’s team is terrible and it’s hard to feel good about beating him. It’s like if we went to war with Somalia; there’s just no pride in that victory.

Shame of Fools: Jon Godin, really? You fail to start a RB and WR despite having both, active, on your bench? Sometimes fate conspires against us to get the players we want, but there is no excuse to not taking the five minutes necessary to just set an active line up. Shame x2: It led to a Peter win!

Descent Into Hell?: As you may have noticed, I’m in 4th place this week, which is shameful enough for our league. However, to do this needed an epic feat: I needed to win, Davis needed to lose, and I needed to outscore him by 50 points. As a team that has broken 90 points just once before this game, I haven’t really outscored anyone by 50 points this entire season. Yet somehow I scored 107 and Ryan scored 57, leading to a statistical tie of PF. Since I beat Ryan Davis this season, that gives me the tie breaker! The rub: Ryan Davis is quickly descending into terribleness.

Update: Kyle drafting himself = only slightly better than the computer drafting for him

Trophies

I have minimal to say about these, but expect them to pop up in your trophy boxes soon when I find the proper pictures.

Fines

Jon Godin: $4

Other…

This is a short post as I’ve got to get ready for the MI vs NE game! More next week…