This is going to be a big year.
Yea, yea, I know. Every year in fantasy football is a big year. During Week 1 the possibilities seem endless, EVERYONE seems to have a legitimate shot at a title. Good players play as expected, rookies rise from the ashes, the waiver wire is full of delightful options, hope springs eternal, etc. etc. It won't be until about week 4 when the depression sets in over 0-4 records, star RB's pulled hamstrings, Jason's total manipulation of free agents, and the inevitable spiral towards defeat at the hands of Scott "Da Mauler" Baker (TM).
But right now, even for the losing teams, there is still so much anticipation of what is to come that even a temporary setback like below-70 point performances in Week 1 can't be taken too seriously. Every team has a bad week! No one's team can be this bad AGAIN, right? Right? Bueller?
Takeaway Points
Bob vs. Jason (or, The Game of the Week)
As of Monday morning, there was only one game still in question, and it was this one. Jason was up 60-56 with brandon lloyd still to play, but I had Wes Welker, the Patriots D/ST, and their kicker. You all laughed at my putting all of my eggs in one basket, to which I reply, "99 yard TD pass to Wes Welker, bitches." What looked like it would really come down to the line as of the 3rd quarter blew up in the 4th and put me hopelessly ahead. White receivers save the day! It was a moot point, eventually, since Lloyd only managed 8 points, which I had covered regardless of that paticular play. But still!
Travis vs. Kim (or, The One We'll Only Remember Because They Tied)
Remember how I said there was only one game still in question? Well, I assumed Janikowski and McFadden weren't going to combine for 28 points. I was wrong! While I'm not sure what the exact statistics are on the likelihood of a tie occurring, the fact that we have one every goddamn season seems like our league is verging into the realm of the statistically bizarre. To top that off, while Travis' team looks as good as usual, Kim managed a tie despite having her top scoring overall QB, RB, WR, and TE on the bench. She played all of her worst players and got a tie! My hat is off to you, madam.
Ryan vs Kyle (or, The What Life is Like Without Manning Bowl)
I was feeling sorry for myself about Arian Foster having a sore hamstring. "Wah wah wah," I said to myself. "How can such a terrible fate befall someone so kind, virtuous, and well-spoken as me?" God, hearing my cries, reached down from the clouds and snatched me up. "Quit your whining, you puss," God said. "You want to see problems? I'll show you problems." He then sent a lightning bolt out of his finger that struck down in the heart of Indianapolis, right into Peyton Manning's cervical spine. "Suck on those bulging discs, asshole," God replied, before setting me down in downtown Detroit as part of my punishment. Sorry Kyle. Might be a long season. Also, Ryan: no sooner do you swear off all bills players than they decide they're all going to be amazing. Guess God smote you, too.
Scott vs. Peter (or, This Game Really Wasn't This Close)
Peter was down about 60 before the monday night games, and only that furious Tom Brady performance brought him within 30. I have deep concerns about Peter's probability to perform well down the road (because his team ain't half bad), but I'm much more worried about Scott. What a beast! Scott's two WRs + QB outscored both Jason and Donel's entire team. Say what you will about Keepers, Scott, but I will defend it as this: all that momentum you had from last season has continued. Do I smell a resurrected dynasty?
Drew vs. Donel (or, Separating the Men from the Boys)
Men: Drew. Specifically, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Forte, and the Ravens D/ST. Drew, our fearless champion, has wasted no time declaring, "hey, I won last year. Suck deez nutz."
Boys: Donel. Specifically, everyone, though I guess Phillip Rivers was a'ight. This was, as you'll recall, a rematch of the championship game from last year. I never thought Donel's team was that super-awesome last year, so color me convinced I was right! But seriously, Donel, I give you a Rated A for Awful for this performance. A for awesome for the team name, though.
Tidbits ‘O Knowledge
I had forgotten this myself. For reference:
The Baker Division (or, The Shiny Lights of Hope) = Scott, Ryan, Rob, Peter, and Kyle
The FF Division (or, Drew of the Sad, Sad Drewettes) = Drew, Kim, Travis, Jason, and Donel.
Drew is actually alone at the top of the Flum/Fever Division, which seems nearly impossible until you remember that Travis and Kim tied. Good news for Drew/Travis/Kim, though, is that the two worst teams in our league right now, Donel and Jason, are both on their schedules twice. Meanwhile, Scott, Ryan, and I only get to beat up on Manningless-Kyle and Peter The Unexpected.
Did anyone see that ESPN crated a "GMC Never Say Never Trophy" today? BLATANT MERCHANDISING. Without permission they decided they'd give Scott an award with a GMC truck on it. Peter must love this. He's the one who harps against ESPN's "Coors 6-Pack of Facts" and the whole "Pace-Picante and Doritos Presents the Fiesta Bowl in Conjunction with Taco Bell" aspect of college football.
Signs That This Year is Simply Last Year, Again
1. I win...without scoring any points. As has become sort of a tradition on my team, we don't really score much. Yea, one player blows up now and then, but in general crossing 100 is a rarity for me. Yet I still tend to have winning records. How is this possible? For some reason, most opponents tend to play down to my level. It doesn't matter how good your team is: when you play me your chance of putting up triple digit points drops inexplicably. I outscored only three teams this week. Luckily, one was Jason.
2. Peter: The Unluckiest Man Alive. I'm going to start calling him "Lucky Peter," much in the same way that movies usually have a "Tiny Tony" to distinguish the monstrous behemoth man: as a source of irony. Peter is the perfect example of a team that plays up to its opponent...but never quite enough to push through. With a loss despite the third highest score of the week, Peter continues his pattern of having a good team that plays only good enough for him to lose while saving face. I'm making a preseason vote for Peter as eventual points leader...at 3-10.
3. Team names: I see we've gotten too old for switching team names. I suppose that was inevitable. I showed one of my co-interns and he laughed. "My Team? That's creative." If he only knew.
Around the League
In trades this week, is anyone surprised that Jason has started his free-agent-auction-cash hemorrhage? $16 for Cam Newton! Sure, Big Ben had a bad game, but let's be realistic. I also noticed that he refrained from the $90 FAA bid this year, a good sign for a) his team this year and b) overall IQ. Ryan Good was not far behind with $15 for Cadillac Williams.
I look to look at trades in terms of how much you paid for the player compared to how many other people were bidding, and how much.
For Cam Newton, Jason spent $16; the next highest bid was Kim at $5. I also bid for him...for $2. That comes out to an overexpenditure of $10 (regardless of waiver wire status I'd say the goal is to ultimately spend one more dollar than anyone else for a player you want to avoid tiebreakers) while offering up 69.5% of the total auction dollars thrown at him.
In comparison, Ryan spent nearly the same amount of Cadillac Williams, $15. I big $7 on him, making an overexpenditure of $8, similar to Jason's. However, given bids of $5 by Scott, $4 by Peter, and $2 by both Donel and Travis, that means Ryan only offered up 42.9% of the overall cash offered. I interpret this as a better deal, because while they both over-spent greatly, Ryan did so on an overall more desired player. I believe someone can be forgiven for overspending on a highly desired player because you never know when someone is going to throw down $90 for John Kuhn. That overspending becomes a bad decision when you're bidding on a player that no one else even wants. Jason's expenditure still represents a disconnect with what he thinks a player is worth and what the rest of us do.
For a List of remaining FAA $$$:
Peter, Rob, Drew, and Scott: $100
Kyle: $99
Donel: $98
Kim and Travis (tied again!): $97
Ryan Good: $85
Jason: $77
One more bit of stats for you…
A tally I'm keeping of points left on the bench. This is a culmination of the points that a player lost by not starting certain players. Week to Week the numbers are sort of irrelevant, but over the course of the season I'm expecting trends to emerge. AND I WILL STATISTICIZE THOSE TRENDS.
Rob: 14 (Reggie Wayne over Percy Harvin, Reggie Bush over Derrick Ward)
Jason: 25 (Kevin Kolb over Ben Roesthlisberger, Steve Johnson over Mario Manningham and Hines Ward over Rashard Mendenhall (assuming RB/WR)
Scott: 7 (Ben Tate over Felix Jones and James Starks over AP)
Peter: 17 (CJ Spiller over Knowshon Moreno and Plaxico "Gun to Leg" Burress over Mike Sims-Walker)
Travis: 5 (Robert Meachem over Peyton Hillis, assuming flex spot)
Kim: 31 (Jay Cutler over Eli Manning, Cedric Benson over Dwanye Bowe [flex], Dez Bryant over Marques Colston, Greg Olsen over Vernon Davis)
Kyle: 3 (Santonio Holmes over Joseph Addai at flex)
Ryan: 25 (all from one player, Mike Tolbert over LeGarrette Blount)
Drew: 21 (Fred Jackson, Jordy Nelson, and LT over Frank Gore, Jonathan Stewart, and Jeremy Maclin)
Donel: 3 (Danny Woodhead over Chris Johnson and Donald Driver over Vincent Jackson)
A few bits of information can be drawn from these numbers.
1) The teams with the lowest Lost Bench Points (LBPs) are actually the worst teams at this point. Donel, Kyle, and Travis ended up with two losses and a tie despite basically playing all of their best players. The only exception to this is Scott, who played his best player with dazzlings results, though it raises some questions about depth.
2) Players who lose games with low LBPs got outplayed. Managers who lose games with high LBPs got outcoached. There was nothing Donel was going to do to beat Drew. However, if Kim had played any of four different players she would have come out with a win. Travis's team, by these numbers, is inferior, but this week he outcoached the Fem.
3) The average margin of victory this week is 22 points. With this information we can extrapolate that any team that had a LBP of over 22 and lost made management decisions that lost them the game. I know, I know, Jason could take all 25 of his bench points and still lose to me this week. But statistically speaking if Jason were to make the changes his choices and Week 1 was re-run 100 times, he would come out on top more often than not.
4) Teams that lost despite LBPs under 22 just have crappier teams than there opponents. With all other things being equal, I EXPECT that team to lose to their opponent again during the season barring any major lineup changes. With these expected numbers Scott WILL beat Peter unless there is a shake up on either team, just as Kyle will lose to Ryan Good over and over without correction.
5) Since these numbers only represent math and not the random nature of football games, none of this is definite. I can't account for random chance. But by these numbers today Jason, Peter, Kyle, and Donel were all outplayed. In a tie, Kim was outcoached.
Also, kudos to Scott's 85 bench points. His bench beat three teams.
Text Messages of the Week!
Peter: I heard Arian Foster is going to have a huge game today. Start him for sure.
Rob: It’s always hard for me when I have to decide which one of my other terrible RBs I need to start
Peter: Foster.
Jason: Shit I hope Wes Welker breaks his testicles.
Rob: I need the dolphins to stop scoring immediately. A TAINT would be nice
Jason: I’m going to punch Wes Welker in the taint
Scott: I need to trade Steve Smith before he descends to Earth.
(pause)
Scott: Want him?
Rob: Nice call drafting Nate Keading, Injured on the first kickoff of the season
Peter: Kicking is a dangerous job, cut him some slack. Not like I was winning against the buzz saw that is Scott, anyway.
Jason: In the words of Ryan Good: Game Blouses.
Rob: Want to trade a player with me?
Kim: Just finished 24-hour call. Will review once I have slept. It’s probably a crooked deal anyway.
One Random Thing
You may have seen the “Pure Michigan” campaign that our past or present state has mounted to desperately try to stem the tide of slow downward spiral into despair. Even if you haven’t, watch this. It reminds me of Scott and Mundy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FJoRxT6B5g
No comments:
Post a Comment