Wednesday, October 2, 2013

WNQ 5: The Times They Are A Changing


Week 5 WNQ:

Name Crisis

I’m currently reevaluting my options for the name “Wednesday Night Quarterback.” I am displeased with this name for multiple reasons. Well, really, two reasons. First, it is a rip off of Tuesday Morning Quarterback, which is both better funded and better written. I don’t like inviting the comparison. Second, it never comes out on Wednesday, so it seems like a misnomer that must be corrected.

I’ve tried to come up with other ideas, but I’m currently stymied. If inspiration hits me, however, the name WNQ will be unceremoniously retired and replaced by whatever this bigger, better name is.

A Roundup of Things I Find Interesting

I’m over the days of trying to be equitable and give each team a moment in the spotlight. If you want a recap of each and every fantasy game, you can go to the scoreboard and peruse the facts. I’ve decided to focus, instead, on things I can judge more subjectively.

First, a scoring trend. Here is a list demonstrating the number of 100+ point games had during a given week.

Week 1: 6
Week 2: 4
Week 3: 2
Week 4: 7

It’s truly astonishing (and, perhaps, either a testament to manager play or the NFL itself) when over half the teams in the league score over 100 points.  This, unfortunately, also leads to some unlucky losers.

In the Russian Revolution Classic, the reds steamrolled the Romanovs’ and executed their entire family 133.9 to 110.1. With the third highest score of the week, I’m disappointed to suffer a loss, but pleased that my team isn’t entirely hopeless. Anastasia is still alive, I say! There is still hope for the Romanov Dynasty!

Also a victim of this curse: Scott Baker, losing 106.4 to 105.3 to Drew. Fun Fact: Scott hasn’t scored less than 94 points this entire season, but is the unproud honor of a 1-3 record. Only a run in with the resident bottom feeder prevented him from starting with an 0-4 record.

This is somewhat insane. Peter has done some numbers work (which I won’t get into…that’s for another day) that looks at the magic number of points that suggest a win, in our league, specifically, is 88. Scott has bested this number every week and has only one win to show for it.

I think part of this is because of the change in scoring, I postulated that the max possible rise in score (assuming every player ended up with an extra “0.9” at the end of a game would be 6.3 points (which would put a winning score to be more along the lines of 94 points – the TMR postulate). This would be true if, in fact, a QB only ever threw the football, and never rushed. Or if a RB never caught a pass.

In fact, with the possibility of multiple category overlap, this number explodes. Even if you assume that each player only has two categories (passing/rushing for each QB, rushing/receiving for WR/RB/TE), that still leads to a maximum increase in points of 12.6 each week. While this is an unlikely number to obtained, it would not be unreasonable to expect and average of 0.5 more points per week from each QB/RB/WR/TE in their designated main specialty, and perhaps a similar amount in rushing/receiving/whatever. The numbers then quickly spiral out of control. Think about it. If Michael Vick threw for 223 yards and rushed for 79 yards last year, he would end up with 15 points. This year, he would end up with 16.8. 1.8 more points!

Suffice to say, we are in for a scoring bonanza this year, and records will fall. Look at it this way: of the seven teams who scored over 100 points last week. At least two would have been under 100 without the fractional points added by their starters…and that’s not even including the other fractional points hidden within their stats!

Despite this, neither Kim nor Dane could manage to break 81 points. I would mock them more, but I have bigger fish to fry.

Jewish Malificent is Dead. Long Live Jewish Malificent

Jason is 0-4. You read that right. Is his season over? I’ve pondered this.

I have neither the time nor resources to scan the league for any 0-4 starts leading to a playoff appearance. I have to imagine that the occurrences area zero number. The chance of Jason rising from the ashes is not impossible, but it is looking quite poor.

First, let’s look at this objectively. Jason is the second lowest scoring team in the league (right ahead of Kim. Woohoo!). While he does have a pretty astronomical PA (441.3, second highest in the league), he is averaging about 27 points less than his opponent scores every week. The average Jason opponent is scoring 110 points each week, in the face of a mere 83 from Jason. However, saying Jason scores 83 points per game would be a boldfaced lie. Let’s look at the numbers...

Week 1: 108.8
Week 2: 88.9
Week 3: 66.7
Week 4: 67

Jason is not a hit or miss team; he’s a team in decline. I suppose you could say that, based on this data, Jason has settled into a steady state of 67 points per game, which, as his current opponent, suits me just fine.

Where did Jason go wrong? A few postulates.

1) Quarterback woes

Jason (along with Travis) was the victim of the great QB rush of the early draft. Jason likely (and rightfully) postulated that he would be stuck with no worse than Tony Romo, the 12th back QB in the draft. He could not have anticipated, however, the fact that Dane would take both Aaron Rodgers and RG III, or that Donel would decide he wanted every midrange QB for his own. This left Jason with the dregs: this week Sam Bradford put up a weak 7.7 points for him. Both Bradford and Schaub (Jason’s other QB) are inconsistent QBs. They have the possibility of putting up the type of numbers every top 10 QB puts up on a weekly basis, but rarely much more. They also have the possibility of sucking.

2) Injuries

Steven Jackson’s thigh injury hurts the most, but lets not forget that the majority of Jason’s players are banged up and at risk for a meltdown

3) Lack of depth

Sure, there is Fred Jackson, Calvin Johnson, and (theoretically) MJD. But the rest of Jason’s team? Scrub RBs R’ Us (Jordan Todman? Daryl Richardson?),  Aaron Dobson (New England’s #12 WR), and a NYG TE (The Giants are the new Browns: do not start). There’s not much he has to fall back on, and in a busy league, there aren’t many players to pick up. Couple this with the Anti-Jason FAA laws, and its going to be a long, long season.

The worst overall part? Jason’s got the #1 D/ST in the league. What a waste! I’ll trade you another scrub RB for them.

Records and Shit

Congratulations to Kyle’s Tony Gonzalez: #2 TE with 26.9 points this week.

Has anyone noticed how TEs seem to be blowing up this year? Already we have three of the top ten performances by TEs in our league filled, and it’s week 4. This is not to mention both Donel and Ryan G having an additional play fall within one point of the top 10. It’s a TE renaissance…and there isn’t even Rob Gronkowski

Horrorscopes

Kyle: Bad luck will soon turn around. You’ve got all the pieces to a successful puzzle, they’ve just decided to underperform. Believe in LeSean McCoy and you shall be saved.

Scott: Make peace with those you have wronged, and appease the Shiva, or you shall be cursed forever. Your lucky color is Fuschia.

Ryan Good: You won’t get to play Jason every week, so aspire for more. Also, fear Native Americans. They hunt you while you sleep.

Rob: You will be rewarded for your struggles with a cupcake. His name is Jason.

Ryan Davis: A wise commissioner will always help you out with rules questions. A gift might go a long way. He likes whiskey.

Peter: World domination will soon be yours. Communism is the way of the future. Вы - хуже всего.

Donel: Second place? How did you get there? What devil are you worshipping? Can you have him call me?

Jason: Eventually, everybody loses. Even you. Avoid stock markets and busy streets. It’s your time.

Dane: The end is nigh. Repent.

Travis: I don’t care how many times you say it: Rob Gronkowski is not saving your season.

Drew: The universe does not understand your fantasy football name. Is it alone? Does anyone get the reference?

Kim: There’s always Fantasy Baseball, right?


And Now For Something Completely Different

Two videos and one sentence:



Remember "The Fox" video I showed you all? It just became a Top 10 hit. 

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