WNQ (or whatever): Week...I don't know, 14?: The Playoffs Cometh

There’s an old saying that says absence makes the heart grow fonder. I hope this is true, as I’ve been negligent of my commissionerial duties for going on three weeks now. Given all the talks of conscription and exile, I hope I’m not adding calls for impeachment to the list of shadowy, sinister dealings brewing in everyone’s minds.

I think my absence warrants a brief explanation, and then I’ll move on to the WTF race-you-to-the-playoffs mindfuck that has just recently concluded.

About a month back Ryan Good came down to Orlando (for something-something-something-Pediatrics conference) presenting something-something-newborn screening.  While he was forced to spend many hours with pediatricians, he also experienced one of the best barbecue restaurants I’ve ever experienced in my life (4 Rivers Smokehouse, Zagat Food Rating 27), a tour of food and beer around the world at Epcot (which included a performance by Survivor, during which he only really recognized one song), and general sunniness and merrymaking.

Subsequently, I’ve been in the process of interviewing for jobs. The past week I was in Michigan interviewing at Beaumont hospital (appealing for many reasons, but certainly for the chance to ask people “Do you have a Beaumont doctor?”), followed by a Thanksgiving weekend staying at the Ewing/Orizondo household (Orizondo/Ewing household? I could see Sean taking Carissa’s name) drinking heavily, playing drinking games, and watching a very conflicting Michigan-Ohio State game and a far less conflicting Alabama-Auburn game.

Now, I’m not sure if all of you have experienced the wonderment that is Carissa and Sean’s house. When Carissa’s dad and mother vacated their long-term home they gifted it to Sean and Carissa. The best way I can think of describing it is as a huge, unlit, poorly marked wooded compound just off Plymouth Road.

I think their house is fantastic, though it does have it’s quirks. For any of you who have lived with/at all known Carissa, you would be aware that she is amongst the five messiest people in the history of the world. Sean has said that living with her has forced him to become more anal about cleaning, because otherwise their house would be overrun with trash. Also, the two of them seem to need to constantly fight to keep nature from overrunning their house One Hundred Years of Solitude – style. The roof is falling apart. The water tastes like rust. A fully sized wild turkey flew into their kitchen window on Thanksgiving (irony?). There is a running tally on the chalkboard in the kitchen of the number of mice they have murdered.  It’s really a trip.

Also, if you have been to their house at night before, you might remember some outside lights. None of those work now. So you’ve mostly got to stumble over their multilevel, branching front walk in the dark, praying to find the entrance. To add to the ambience, they still have their Halloween decorations up, which consist of mostly rusty/bloody tools that are actually kind of frightening.

At the moment, I’m about to take off from Orlando to Michigan (again), for an interview with the University of Michigan. The prodigal son returns! Only bad things could come of me being a faculty member at Michigan, though I suppose returning has a certain romanticism. Who doesn’t want the chance to be a happy van driver or to be parodied in the Smoker? I think I could be parodied hilariously. I wouldn’t even mind being an FCE leader; mine mostly napped through our sessions.

Okay, now that I’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s take a moment to focus on Fantasy Football. First! I want to say that I will not be updating the final fines/records list this week, because of two factors: a) the beforementioned problem of typing WNQ (or whatever it’s called now) while on a plane and b) my antiquated reliance on a desktop computer upon which to keep all of my fantasy football records. I will need to rectify this, and hopefully I have time this year to consolidate my fantasy football resources.

A Playoff Race for the Ages (Alt Title: An Unlikely Disco Playoff Mindfuck: Electric Bugaloo)

It’s fairly bizarre to consider that, with three weeks to play, ten teams had realistic shots at the playoffs, with the other two perhaps just one game out (and while they were realistically eliminated, I haven’t generated all the scenarios and thus each might have statistically been able to squeak in). The parity of this season has been insane, and really shows going down into the final week.

Before Week 12, we still had ten playoff hopefuls. Davis and Kyle played a Toilet Bowl match to ultimately determine last place. Ryan Good and Dane, at that point in time each seven win teams likely if not guaranteed a playoff spot, faced off for the p[possibility of a first round bye. Peter, who had started 6-1, was on a four game losing streak an was trying his best to miss the playoffs entirely, a la Ryan Good.  While a confident Kim had changed her name to “Girl on Top” while she say in a tie for first with seven wins. Donel and Jason faced off in a battle of 6-win teams who each really needed a win, while 5-win Travis played a must win vs. 6-win Drew. Scott and I, meanwhile, at 5-wins each, played a must-win scenario for the possibility of a playoff spot.

While we could not have entirely predicted it at the time, this week was ACTUALLY the defining week of the playoff picture. Peter reversed course and got his seventh win, which matched with his league-high points-for virtually guaranteed him a playoff spot. Ryan Good bested Dane, and from the same mentality guaranteed himself a first-round-bye. Travis received his needed win to stay alive, and both Jason and I triumphed. While many possibilities were still in play, Scott was realistically eliminated and Donel would be. In fact, of the four teams who “missed” the playoffs (Ryan Davis and Kyle: to “miss” the playoffs, I require the distinct possibility that a team could make them, so I think the word is not applicable to your terrible teams) .

For you see, with Week 13, I secured a victory over poor, sad Kyle, Peter finished his return to form in a win over Davis (securing a first-round bye), Dane pulled it out against Jason as Travis did against Kim. Meanwhile, Drew finished his untimely collapse with an anemic effort against Donel.

By this week, I already knew Peter and Ryan Good were in; there was no universe where an eight win team (Ryan) could miss, and Peter’s PF put him out of reach of every other team. Realistically the same could be said of Jason, who at 7 wins with 1213 PF would beat all teams but the beforementioned pair and Travis, thus securing his definite spot in the playoffs, even with a loss.

From there, things get dicey. With a loss Dane would have been out; he simply did not have the PF to make the playoffs, and wit ha seven-win record would have finished 7^th. With a win, however, his spot was assured. It ultimately came down to Donel and I (who have notoriously fought for the 6^th/7^th position year after year), and a rapidly fading Kim vs. a frightening Travis Team.

When Donel finished with 117 points, I knew his season was over. He needed fifteen points to pull ahead of me on PF and would miss it by about 8, effectively dooming him. As the Kim/Travis game finally played out, it became clear to me that in order to beat me with her remaining players (which would have required 26 points by Marshawn Lynch) in PF, she would also end up beating Travis, knocking him out. Thus I secured a spot. Finally, though Travis has time and time again proven unable to beat Kim, in the clutch he prevailed, himself making it in.

The Six Playoff Teams: The Usual Suspects

Many people (myself included) have been utterly baffled by the lack of spread within our league. Ten teams finished with a record of 6-7 or above this year, and two 7-win teams missed the playoffs (UNPRECEDENTED). Out top teams sat at a sad 8-5, and it does seem that no one was really able to break out as our usual top team has in the past.

However, this did not equate to any real change in the playoff picture. Let’s analyze.

No one should be surprised to see Travis in the playoffs. He has never finished worse than 4^th place and never missed. His consistency would be legendary if our league was old enough to have legends. Instead it is simply a factual certainty with an n = 7. Ditto with Jason. He is the defending league champion with multiple titles, and despite a few hiccups a few years back, he is also a “usual playoff suspect.”

Here’s a quote from Jason that he never said and I entirely made up: “Fuck you guys and your FAA rules designed to handcuff me. I crushed your teams like I crushed your mothers’ pelvises. I’m going to take a picture of myself doming the D-Cup when I repeat. PS: I hate you all.”

Ryan Good’s presence should also surprise absolutely no one. On a very consistent schedule, Ryan Good makes the playoffs every other year, and this being an odd year, he was destined to be here. There is absolutely no reason this should happen, but it has literally every year since Season 1. While FF trends may be nonsense, by betting on Ryan Good making the playoffs every odd year I have never been wrong.

Also, while this seems counterintuitive, I am also a perennial playoff-maker. Sure, you can make the comment that I have won all of one playoff game ever, but I’m now 6/7 in making the playoffs, and the one year I missed I was 7^th (fun fact: I lost the last spot to Donel, who appears to be my secret nemesis in mediocrity). Besides, everybody loves seeing me in the playoffs because it means an easy first-round victory for them. You’re welcome, Dane.

Finally, while no one would consider Peter or Dane a “good bet” to make the playoffs this year, there are a few statistics that hold up, which Peter documented previously: High PF and low PA do correlate, somewhat, with making the playoffs. I’d have to get ahold of Peter’s data to see if the highest PF or lowest PA have ever missed the playoffs. I’m tempted to say it might have happened (to Peter, ironically), but that would be a rare occurrence. This year, Peter has the highest PF (1298.2) and Dane as the lowest PA (1111.7), and as we should expect the managers with those stats to make the playoffs, it is thus so.

I accept the argument that Scott and Baker are also potential playoff teams in any given season, but I am also not surprised to see them miss. Scott has been increasingly erratic of late, with highly variable quality in his teams, and he is no longer the sure-thing he once was. Drew has been more consistent, but he didn’t start out of perennial player and does not have the consistency of Travis/myself nor the storied history of Jason, putting him just on the outside of the top tier.

And the Irony Gods Smiled

Tied for #1 in the league, a 7-4 Kim changed her team name to Girl on Top. She then lost two straight games and missed the playoffs. NEVER brag about your team until you’ve achieved your goal. The Irony God will smite you every time.

The Irony God, however, seems immune to negative publicity. Neither the change to Buffalo out to Pasture nor the previous Computer Buffalo Dung have led to the Irony God doling out success to Kyle. The Irony God only has so much irony to spread around.

Examining the Playoffs

This week, both Ryan Good and Peter have bye weeks, which are both a) a fantastic way to guarantee at least a 4^th place finish and b) a guaranteed road to a 4^th place finish. We’ve yet to have a team with a first-round bye win the championship, which, considering the odds of twelve previous teams who have proven they are really good at winning being unable to string together two measly back to back wins, is really saying something. Both these teams need to be on high-alert that history is not on their side, though I recognize that historical trends are only trends as long as they arbitrarily keep coming true.

I will say this: the road to the championship goes through Ryan Good. This is not a testament to his team being the best (though he is the #2 seed), but merely because of his draw.

If you look at the playoff bracket, we can split it into groups. ‘Group A’ as I will call it, represents the #2 seed (Good), the #3 seed (Dane), and the #6 seed (myself), while ‘Group B’ represents the other half of the draw, #1 Peter, #4 Travis, and #5 Jason.

For Peter to win the championship, he would need to win a second-round game against either Travis (the second highest PF who has only gotten better as the season goes on) or Jason (#4 in PF who is likely only a 5 seed because of the the 3^rd worst PA). Neither of these teams is a desirable opponent. Travis has scored 98, 94, and 107 points in the past three weeks.  Jason has scored 98, 84, and 90, which is still good, despite the comparison to the Boxcar Joes. In Group B are three of the four best teams in the league. Let’s not even forget that for Travis or Jason to win the championship, they need to beat each other first before even getting a shot at Peter, our PF leader. This is a rough road, and there are no guarantees in either of the games.

Group A, meanwhile, is full of cupcakes. I reiterate that I do not think Ryan Good has the best team, but he is undeniably one of the best teams (top 4, definitely). He gets to face the winner of the Rob vs. Dane matchup, featuring undoubtedly the worst teams in the playoffs.

Dane ranks #9 in PF, and his presence in the playoffs is undoubtedly due to the paucity of points scored against him. While PA likely translates to playoff births, I’d have to guess that a higher PF translates more closely to playoff wins, and a lower PF suggests less week to week variability, which is the kiss of death in one-and-done scenarios. I’m not saying Dane can’t have a good week, but he’s playing without Aaron Rodgers (as of now…I hear he could come back this or next week), and his team just isn’t great. I would predict Ryan Good to beat Dane in nearly all scenarios.

I meanwhile, am also not great. I clock in and only #7 on the PF list (I’m well behind Kyle, of all people), but a respectable #6 on the PA list. I’m scoring points and being scored on in turn. While my team has been heating up as of late (due in no small part of Nick Foles and Ben Tate), I am still an unproven commodity in terms of consistency, and could easily melt down at either moment.

Ryan Good gets to pick up the scraps from the Round 1 Group A game and should realistically book his ticket to the Championship. I’m not saying he’ll win, but I’ll say it again: The road to the championship comes through Ryan Good.

Put Up of Shut Up

It’s time to put my money where my mouth is. I’ve spent a lot of time railing on how terrible Dane’s team is. While I will maintain this is true regardless of the outcome, this week is my put up or shut up game. Should I win, I will consider myself validated. Should I lose, I’ll still hold the same opinion of his team, but I will feel great shame.

Fun Facts for the Week

There are two teams in the playoffs with a negative PF-PA ratio: myself (1168:1179) and Jason (1213:1240).  We win small and lose big.

As the #1 seed and #1 on the PF list, Peter has the chance to win the incentive jackpot, which has yet to be won. If you’re confused what this means, check the constitution. I don’t have a copy to link to on this computer.

For some reason ESPN breaks games into “home” an “away.” I’m not sure what this would ever be used for, and seems designed for leagues where people want to create bizarre rules where the home team gets +5 or some bullshit like that. While perusing the standings, however, I noticed that Kyle is 3-3 away and an astounding 0-7 at home. Not only has Kyle been able to lost almost all of his games despite scoring a shit ton of points, but the ones he has managed to win have all arbitrarily been away games. This is statistically improbable.

And Now for the Part Where I Predict Games Based on Flimsy Evidence, Tarot Cards, and Random Bias

Rob beats Dane! The crowd goes wild.

Travis beats Jason and we all sigh about Travis’ inevitable 3^rd place finish.

Things I’m Planning to Write for WNQ (post-season) That I Need to Write Down Now Lest I Forget

1) A thorough draft analysis going back through the beginning of the ESPN years (Yahoo data: DIV BY ZERO ERROR). I’m curious to see if there are trends based on money spent at specific positions that determine success. Also, as a secondary goal, I want to evaluate whether or not managers’ seem to have a consistent draft strategy or whether or not it varies year to year. I am partially motivated by figuring out why the fuck Travis is so good at this.

2) An analysis on week-to-week variability (I discussed this previously). I want to confirm or deny once and for all whether we’ve had more variability since we went to twelve-players. While not perfect, I believe the dilution of talent should theoretically lead to less viable backups and thus more week-to-week variability  due to lack of alternative options in the face of a bad matchup.

3) I plan to write open-letters to each manager with the specific findings about their team and a discussion on the biggest problem spots. This is disguised as a way to make each team better (because as we get more competitive, I think our league will evolve in interesting ways), but is secretly a way for me to write more funny/marginally mean stuff about you all.

4) Voting and new policies. I’ve already had some proposed, which include a change in the way that defenses are scored (I’ll need to examine this issue more closely. Apparently ESPN added some metrics this year that we don’t like), a discussion on whether or not to open up additional dates for obtaining free agents, and (bum bum bum!) whether or not 12-teams are working, and if we need to go back to 10. If there are other proposals anyone is considering please email me by the end of the season, because that’s when I’m going to start working on it.

5) Update the Constitution

6) Update the Stats Sheet/Record List