Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Playoffs Pending: The History Edition of (a very prompt) Wednesday Morning Quarterback



Another week, another inevitable loss by me, another crushing victory my Scott, another year of underachievement for Ryan. Playoffs? You talkin' about playoffs? I'll get to that...but first!

A TRIP DOWN MEMORY LANE 

As our (regular) season comes to a close, I thought now would be a good time to take a look at the history of our league...and all the associated trends, scandals, and hurt feelings. I’d like to say that the reason I’m doing this is to pick out any information that might give us a hint of things to come in this year’s playoffs...but really I’m just doing this for fun, and because I love statistics.

Year 1: MDeucesWild (14 teams) or, The (Sad, Confusing, Overstuffed) Early Years

I remember our M2 fantasy football league. It was my first year playing fantasy football, and I was filled with a healthy mix of joy and confusion. I was intimidated by the people who had played before, but optimistic that it was going to be the Best Thing Ever. I was kind of right!

When talking about many fantasy football statistics, I usually leave out the information garnered from our first season. The reason? Our format was drastically different then. First off, we had 14 teams, an ungodly number that made sure there was no way each team had enough players who were mediocre or better to start week to week. Also, I believe we started more players each week at that time...but I can’t prove this.

Most importantly...there were eight playoff teams, that makes it increasingly difficult to draw parallels to our current set up because the cut off from playoff caliber to losers bracket shifted so dramatically. Also, those girls fucked everything up.

Seriously. Who (besides Kim) doesn’t remember what a wreck the league was that year? On one hand you’ve got Karen, who got bored around week 2 and simply stopped starting players. Then you’ve got Carissa/Annie who combined for a whopping total of 0 pick ups/trades during the entire season. And of course, we all remember Nava and Steven-Jackson-gate, still the single dumbest thing I’ve seen in fantasy football on this side of spending $80 for Brandon Jackson during the free agent auction.

That was also the year of the one-and-done fantasy football player. Besides the above mentioned girls, was also lost Ryan Davis, whose sorely neglected team was fittingly named “Bye Week.” With all this suckitude, what was perhaps the saddest of all was the fact that Ryan Good, the founder of our league and most experienced fantasy football player, finished 4-9 in 12th place, behind both Nava and Carissa/Annie.

Here are the regular season standings from Year 1:

1. Kyle (Bohminators) 10-2-1
Scott (Rogue Peanuts) 10-3
(.)(.)s (Peter) 8-4-1
Fever (Fever) 8-5 [1380 PF]
Phil (Gravano) 8-5 [1344 PF]
Donel (D Money All Day) 7-6 [1200 PF]
Rob (My Time To Shine) 7-6 [1193 PF]
Travis (Vick’s Picks) 6-7 [1334 PF]
Carissa/Annie (Daaa Broads) 6-7 [1194 PF]
Drew (Flummer) 6-7 [1137 PF]
Nava (girl power) 5-8
Ryan Good (Pure Goodness) 4-9
Ryan Davis (Bye Week) 3-10
Karen (GangGreen) 2-11

Ultimately, after the playoffs, the final rankings would see the top 8 switched like so:
Fever
Scott
Travis
Donel
Rob
Kyle
Peter
Phil

A few things can be garnered from the standings along. First off, it was clearly a bad year to be named Ryan. The #1 team, as is the norm for us, did not fare very well in the playoffs. And in the cruelest of consolation prizes I won the winners’-losers’ bracket after being steamrolled by Scott in Round 1. Also, keep an eye on where Scott falls in our yearly rankings. It’s pretty consistent. Luckily, Jason beat him that time (135-112), or we’d all be pretty pissed at Scott.

Playoff rundown:

In the first round of the playoffs, Fever and Phil tied 118-118. Fever advanced...and would ultimately win the entire tournament. To this day I have no idea how that tiebreaker was determined. That game shaped the season. Also in the first round of the playoffs, the #1 and #3 seed were eliminated. Travis, the #8 seed, ascended to an eventual third place finish. He also had the highest scoring playoff round, when he scored 143 in Round 1. The lowest playoff scoring round? Travis’ Round 2 74

Fun facts!

Jason made an at-that-time-unprecedented 87 transactions over the course of the season, 30 more than his closest competitor, Scott.
Ryan Good started the season 4-4, then lost his last 5 games. Pay attention to how terribly Ryan Good does at the end of seasons!
I started 1-5 then won 6 of 7 to finish out the season and secure a playoff spot. Of my 7 wins, only 3 were over people who are still a part of our league (Scott, Jason, and Peter, all of my arch-nemeses)
Kyle and Peter had the first recorded tie...in week 1. I remember we were all very confused about that...this led to multiple rejiggering of tiebreaker rules over the course of 4 seasons
Ryan David didn’t get a win until week 7. He didn’t score over 100 points until week 13
Peter had the all time high-score, with 170 points against Karen in week 4. Peter’s team also made the playoffs, which is admittedly hard to imagine. Scott was the high scorer of the season, with 1476 points. See what I mean about point inflation?!
QB TDs were worth 6 that season, which explains at least part of why Tom Brady could get 50+ points every week.


Year 2: Classic M Triad (10 teams), or The Lean Years

The modern era of our fantasy football league started in year 2, when we trimmed the fat from the league and switched to a format similar to the one we are in now: 10 teams, 6 playoff spots. QB TDs dropped to 4 pts, and scoring settled into its current format (no more routine 150+ point games).

Ultimately, we ended up with a much more mature league. There was less fat (notice I don’t say “no fat.” See the section on Phil later) in the league, and everything just seemed to run more smoothly. Until the end of the season, that is, when 5 teams were tied at 6-7 and tiebreakers had to come into place to determine which 3 of those teams would make the playoffs. This marked the first time teams with losing records made the playoffs. Also: no new teams made the playoffs that year; all 6 playoff teams (Scott, Jason, Kyle, Travis, Donel, and myself) had been there the year before.

I had almost forgotten this...but do you guys remember the time before our leagues had automatic scoring updates? Yahoo made us pay if we wanted Stat Tracker...so we often had no idea exactly how well our teams were doing until we a) wasted two hours trying to crunch numbers, or b) the results were published the next day. I caved and spent the $5 for stack tracker, and subsequently became a regular Sunday evening contact person for people trying to figure out the score of their games. It seems positively prehistoric.

This would make Phil’s final year with our fantasy football league. Phil was sort of swallowed up by third year, and simply didn’t check his team for weeks at a time, leading to many crying for his ouster. I don’t believe a formal resignation was ever received...he just simply wasn’t invited back. It became a point of assumption, really, that if he didn’t care enough to manage his team, he wouldn’t care that he was left out the next season. Oh well. There’s nothing more aggravating than fighting for a playoff spot against a good team while another team is getting an easy win from someone playing no WRs.

The Regular Season Standings:

Travis (The Mark Maker’s) 12-1
Jason (More Cowbell) 9-4
Kyle (Bohminators deux) 7-6
Scott (Serenity Now) 6-7 [PF 1217]
Rob (Back For The First Time) 6-7 [PF 1207]
Donel (D Money All Day) 6-7 [PF 1180]
Ryan (Good Not Great) 6-7 [PF 1159]
Drew (Flummer) 6-7 [PF 1142]
Phil (Gravano) 4-9
(.)(.)s Redux 3-10

Ultimately, after the playoffs:

Scott
Jason
Kyle
Travis
Donel
Rob
Ryan
Drew
Phil
Peter

While the league was a striking image of parity (6 teams had 6 or 7 wins), there were two clear outliers: Peter with a record of 3-10, and Travis with a remarkable 12-1. I don’t remember anyone having a season that good before. His only loss that season? Week 6 to me. Mwahaha! My team might never be that special, but it loves to play spoiler.

Playoff Rundown:

Our #1 seed that year, Travis, lost his first playoff game and joined a long list of underachieving first seeders. Scott managed the two highest scores in the playoffs, 138 in the first round and 124 in the finals. Jason’s 80 in the finals was a massive meltdown, the worst in the playoffs besides Travis’ 76 pt 3rd place game loss. I, again, couldn’t manage a real playoff win.

Fun facts!

This I remember very clearly: Ryan Good started the season 6-1, then preceded to lose 6 in a row and miss the playoffs. As one of the worst teams, he deserved it. It was reminiscent of his 5 game meltdown the year previous
At this point in time, Ryan Good and Drew were the only teams in our league not to have a playoff appearance.
Scott’s 6-7 champion ship team marks the only time (thus far) a team with a losing record has taken the championship. Also, Scott tried his hardest to miss the playoffs, losing his last 3 games.
Drew won his last 4 games but just missed the playoffs. He and Ryan tend to have opposite trajectories during the season, with Ryan starting strong and melting down and Drew sucking it up then turning on the burner late. Didn’t work out for either of them, again.
After starting 1-4, I succeeded in making the playoffs as an also-ran for a second-straight year. Like Drew, I tended to start soft, but managed to just eke out enough wins to get the chance to lose in the first round.
Travis had the THREE highest scoring weeks, at 167, 159, and 141. Yikes. Still managed to lose out in the end.
Jason shattered his own transaction record with 109 moves during Season 2, besting second place Scott who had 61. For reference as to what the rest of our league looked like, the third most transactions = 35.
The second season proved that names weren’t really our strong suit. Two teams (Kyle and Peter) chose to add deux/redux to their previous team name. Drew, Donel and Phil just kept their team name the same. Fever continued his run of vague reference to the word “fever.”


Year 3: M4Play (10 teams ), or A Season of Change

M4Play marked our league’s move to ESPN, forever leaving behind the beloved Yahoo smack board but hated Yahoo points charges. Subsequently, Yahoo would make their point tracker free...but whatever! Also, that marked the first year of this column, and my general overmanagement of our leagues settings. As it is this year, Ryan may be our commissioner in name, but I hold all the power!

This also marked the first season where the losers’ bracket had its own little playoff. I’ll admit to have not paid attention to this in the past. I think there should be a penalty for ultimately finishing in 10th place (maybe an extra $10 fee?) to encourage people to take honor in 9th, as I did, ultimately.

With Phil given the boot, Kim joined our league this year. After Carissa/Annie, Nava, and Karen set women’s lib back 100+ years with their anemic showing in season 1, we were all admittedly skeptical about letting a, gasp, GIRL back into the league. But I mean, come on! Kim’s got two championship fantasy baseball teams! We knew she wouldn’t be Carissa redux. And we were right: she was much more awful. She paid plenty of attention to her team...but that doesn’t mean she wasn’t just dreadful. We chalked it up to growing pains.

I’m not sure why I called year 2 a season of change. I think it actually had the least change of any season. Whatever. I’m keeping it!

Regular Season Final Standings

Ryan (Team Good) 10-3
Drew (Stream Team) 9-4
Jason (Return of the Cowbell) 8-5
Kyle (Bohm’s Bums) 7-6 [PF 1145]
Scott (Team Schadenfreude) 7-6 [PF 1079]
Travis (Atlanta Boxcar Joes) 6-7 [PF 1268]
Rob (Matt Stafford Infection) 6-7 [PF 1137]
Donel (D No Money All Day) 5-8
Kim (Lez Med) 4-9
Peter (=====D~ in Scott’s Face) 3-10

After playoffs:

Scott
Travis
Drew
Ryan
Kyle
Jason
Peter
Kim
Rob
Donel

First off, I need to comment about how good some of these team names are. =====D~ in Scott’s Face is my favorite team name of all time. Not only is it funny, directly insulting to one of our own, and very in-jokey, it’s also thematically consistent with Peter’s old name, (.)(.)s. I think that name deserves an award. Also: Donel, who has changed his team name all of once in 4 season, cracked my shit up when, at the end of a brutal 10th place finish, he rechristended himself D No Money All Day. And while my team names always crack me up, I also like Travis’ ongoing Boxcar Joe character, Scott’s Team Schadenfreude, and Drew’s very fitting Stream Team. We were awesome then.

Ahem. Without a 12-1 record to dominate things, only one 6-7 team managed to sneak in to the playoffs. Donel and I missed the playoffs for the first time, while Drew and Ryan Good finally made it in. With their inclusion, all of the remaining original founders of the league had made at least one playoff appearance. Kim: your time will come.

Playoff Roundup:

So our #1 seed, Mr. Good, managed, like Travis before him, to win no playoff games. In fact, the finale with Scott and Travis marked a matchup between the #5 and #6 seed. Bye weeks have done no favors for teams in our league. Of four teams who have ever had a bye week, only one has ever won their subsequent playoff game, and none have taken home the top prize. Are bye weeks the kiss of death? I hope so, since I’ll never have one.

In the category of Small Victories, just ‘cause, Peter ascended from #10 to #7 after demolishing the losers bracket. I was spared the ultimate shame by besting Donel in the 9th place game.

Fun facts!

This marked the first season Jason did not have the most transactions. Scott easily bested him, with 50, a record low.
Goodness gracious: Scott has finished #2, #1, and #1 in three season. That is startlingly consistent. I smell dynasty.
I was nearly as consistent, finishing (regular season) #7, #6, and #7. Somehow it seems less impressive.
Donel and I played 4 times this season (the record to this point), including meeting 3 times in the last four weeks. That is ridiculous. He was my scheduled Week 13 game (which I lost), then I met him in Round 1 of the losers bracket (losing to him again), then after I got stomped by Peter, met him in the 9th place game, finally emerging victorious. Freedom!
Ryan started the season 7-0...but failed to meltdown until the playoffs. Still happened, though.
Kim actually started 0-7, then won 4 of 6 in the regular season and 2 of 3 in the consolation bracket, showing that she wasn’t a total pushover, all the time.
Peter boasts the longest losing streak with 8 straight losses after a 2-2 start.
This season marked the first time Jason didn’t finish in the top 2, eventually landing in position #6. That makes, to this point, Travis the only person not named Scott or Jason to play for a championship.

Whew! That was a lot of data to crunch. In doing so, I also tallied my win/loss record against each of the teams in our league...

Vs. Scott: 4-5 (including this week’s loss)
Vs. Jason: 4-1
Vs. Peter: 5-2
Vs. Kyle: 1-6 (the only win coming in the 5th place game way back in Season 1)
Vs. Ryan: 3-4
Vs. Donel: 2-7
Vs. Drew: 1-2-1
Vs. Travis: 2-2
Vs. Kim: 1-1

It’s strange how it’s worked out that I’ve never played Drew or Travis more than once per season...Yet have faced Donel and Scott 9 times each. I’m using this determination to make Donel and Scott my in-division rivals...which means during rivalry games I’m an anemic 6-12. Bet the house on me when I play Jason and Peter, though, which appear to be very favorable match ups for me. And I’ve never beat Kyle in a non-consolation matchup...which sounds about right.

I'm considering splitting the league into divisions next year. This wouldn't be a scenario where the top 3 teams in each division make the playoffs (which I find unfair, as inevitably some #4 team gets passed over due to their conference being stronger), but it would help preserve some of these beautiful rivalry games. Speaking of rivalry games...

Playoff Picture 

Now that I've gotten that aside out of the way...here's our CURRENT set of playoff ready teams:

#1 Kyle and #2 Drew get their fancy little first round byes, while
#3 Travis plays #6 Scott and
#4 Donel plays #5 Rob

First, from our little tour of the league's history you've noticed that #1 seeds tend to do VERY poorly in the playoffs. Also, if you take a look at the teams that have finished #1 (Kyle, Travis, and Ryan Good), you'll note that none of these teams have ever taken home the big prize. In fact, none of the #1 seeds have ever ended up better than 4th overall...which means none of them have ever won a playoff game. In fact, only one team who had a bye week (Jason in Season 2) has ever won the game following the bye. Traditionally, the seeding in our league doesn't mean shit...which is good for lil 'ol #5...myself

The road to the finals ultimately goes through Scott, in my opinion. As He-Who-Puts-Up-120+-Points-Weekly is no doubt aware, we were all TREMBLING IN OUR BOOTS when it came to figuring out who would play him. That unlucky person is Travis, who has had his fair share of losing to Scott in the playoffs to understand the dire position he is in. That game might be a massacre.

The far more interesting game is actually the one between Donel and myself, which represents--wait for it--a battle between the two worst teams in the playoffs that will guarantee one of them advances further than either has any right to. In fact, if the winner of this game then goes on to play Kyle (arguably the third worst playoff team), we could realistically have a championship game contender who isn't able to score more than 70 points week in and week out. Yikes.

Also, mentioned in the history, the game between Donel and myself is a RIVALRY GAME! I'm a mighty 2-7 versus D Money, though one of those wins comes in the crucial 9th place game of Season 3. Beware Don-EZ. I'm coming for you.

Now that I've successfully sorted through our league archives, I'm now going to get to work to analyzing this season. I'll have plenty of time to do so once I lose another playoff game, sending myself to 0-3 all time. I'm the Detroit Lions of fantasy football.

On the plus side: even as Scott roles to an inevitable third straight victory, people of our fantasy football league rejoice! The once dreaded Fever has finished the season in 9th and cannot contend for the title. You will not hold sway over our court any more, tyrant! Scott, please continue your despotic ways.

One Last Thing 

I should comment on the flurry of trophies that were awarded today. Kyle won the award both for best record and for least points scored against him (I made that a "positive" aware at the beginning of the season...which I might need to change).

Scott scored the most points during the season (what a shocker, right?). Jason had the most points scored against him...and Peter scored the least. Congrats to Peter to not breaking 1000 for the season! To think he could have made the playoffs. 

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

The Year End Edition

Year End? What? We're not even done with the regular season! While I know that's true, next week is going to have a pretty heavy playoff focus element, so right now I wanted to take a look at how each of us fared throughout the season. I'll start with...

The Eliminated 

Kim: Hasselbeck's Last Stand (4-8)

It's kind of sad that there's only one team that's mathematically eliminated from the playoffs at this point. It's especially sad that it's Kim, because this represents the second year of her suckitude. She wasn't last, last year (and she may not be this year), but Kim continues to underperform.

Where do I start in analyzing this team? Kim's team is both a wealth of talent and a wastelands of poor decisions. Case in point: her roster includes Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, and Eli Manning.

I don't think I'm alone in the opinion that YOU SHOULD NEVER HAVE MORE THAN TWO REASONABLE STARTING QBs. Ideally, you wouldn't have more than one. Every team needs a) a solid starter, and b) a second-tier QB who has the chance to put together a monster season (See Orton, Kyle) who can step in if said starter gets hurt, has a bye, or is Brett Favre. If at any point a person finds themselves with three very reasonable starting QBs...trade one. Seek out a trade! Kim had these three QBs when I was still relying on the Favre/Cutler combo of doom and, subsequently, when I was desperately seeking a new QB. Kim could have taken me for a ride if she'd offered a trade...instead I gave up Hines Ward for Orton (in retrospect, genius).

I'm not really sure why there aren't more trades in general...we all seem to hold our players extra close to our chests. I understand the whole "don't trade with Bob," aspect of the game, but come on. Kim, you should have traded with someone.

Meanwhile...Kim's team is the most shallow in the league. I'm not going to deny that she had some players totally work out for her (here's looking at you, BenJarvus), but once you get back her top three RBs and top two WRs (who have had spotty season, BTW)...there's just those extra QBs that she can't play. WHY HAVEN'T YOU TRADED MATT RYAN FOR SOMEONE AWESOME? It's not like you're going to bench Tom Brady (fun fact: Kim did bench him twice, though once he was on a bye. She then played Manning over Ryan. #@!#!#!?? Brady had 32 pts the game he was benched).

Verdict: Kim, like Al Davis before her, is stuck in a rut. She made poor managerial decisions, wasted her roster space, and ultimately eliminated herself from the hunt. Next year?

The Guaranteed 

Kyle: Team Buffalo (9-3)

Hello #1 seed in the playoffs! So my sinister plan for Kyle not to make the playoffs didn't pan out. That being said, I'm not too sad about that! Kyle is the least intimidating #1 seed I can imagine. Kyle has scored less than 90 points 8 times out of twelve games. He's a lucky motherfucker...no ifs ands or buts (My Mini-Mental = 30). His team isn't explosive (though it has blown up for 114 against me, before), and the drop off from his stars (Peyton, MJD) to the people he has to start due to depth issues (Malcolm Floyd, Cadillac Williams) explains why he's such a consistent 83-91 pointer. He's scored in that range for 50% of his games. With teams like Scott threatening to be involved in the playoffs, this will not cut it. Great fear!

Not like it matters. Who else wins with 59 pts? Oh, that's right. Peter.

Verdict: Team Buffalo is our equivalent to the Indianapolis Colts. They're still pretty good, but they don't seem nearly as invincible as they once were...and Peyton is running scared.


Travis: My Team (7-5)
Drew: Team Frum (6-5-1)
Rob: Benson of Sam (6-5-1)

First, let's talk about Travis. I'm legitimately concerned around Travis' team...and by concerned, I mean, shit, I don't want to play Travis. However, he's only the third most concerning team that could make the playoffs right now, so in the grand scheme of things, he's pretty benign. Travis puts up plenty of points...and on the back of White Boy Running Back #1 (my personal favorite), he's been riding some pretty good 100+ point weeks. That being said...those WRs! It's not that they're even bad...it's that none of them are reliable. They could each put up 15 or 0 on any given day, which doesn't really fly in the playoffs.

Fun fact: Drew has put up 427 points in the past four games. Does anyone feel great about playing Drew in the playoffs? I'll admit having left Drew's team for dead after a truly wretched 2-5 start. He hasn't lost a game since Week 7, during which time he's an electric 4-0-1. Drew's got WRs down pat; while not necessarily 30 pointers (don't put it past them), he's also got a lack of truly sucky players. Except for his RBs...which hopefully will be his downfall.

Confession: Besides being busy, I didn't want to write another post because I didn't want to jinx myself into not making the playoffs. Remember how I said I just needed to win 1 of 4 games to make the playoffs? Whew! Really had to work for that one. I would dare say that, along with Kyle, I am the least frightening playoff team. I'd barely be a playoff team if not for a pretty lucky tie with Drew. That being said, here's a question:

Who got off better with a "tie," me, or Drew?
Answer: Drew. Ultimately, what the tie did for both of us is guarantee us that tiebreakers wouldn't need to come into play...because we'd essentially each win all of them. No one can tie for my record...except for Drew. In the case of a tied series, the next tiebreaker is points for...of which Drew has 1107 and I have 1026. What this means to me is that, while the #2 playoff spot (and accompanying bye week) are still up for grabs, I can't tie with Drew and take that spot...unless I score 81 more points than him this week. And since Drew is playing Travis, who must lose for us to even have a shot at the spot, I'm at the point where I can't pass Drew if he wins (Even if I win), but can't beat Travis even if Drew loses. Game, set, match. Technically, at this point, Travis holds the tiebreaker over Drew...but remember, Drew can't tie records with Travis, so if he wins, he gets a bye week by default! Epic comeback!

The Pack 

Donel: D Money All Day (6-6)
Ryan: The Goods (6-6)
Scott: Prestige Worldwide (5-7)
Peter: Mile High Club (5-7)
Jason: Grand Mal Fitz (5-7)

Yet there can be only two. Scott is easily the person I least want to see in the playoffs. Besides the fact that I would love for Jason and Scott to both miss the playoffs of the Fever-Baker Dynasty League, I'm scurred of Scott's team. He has scored over 100 for 6 straight games...the fact that he has lost two of those is both curious and unlucky. His team is a monster. I do NOT want to deal with that...in any way shape or form. Now Jason, I wouldn't even be that mad at if I had to play him. Don't be fooled by that 100+ score this week! Jason is a team of sub-60 point weeks (see weeks 7 and 9) interspersed in a sea of mediocre 70/80 scores. Props for the name, though. I love names that are a) clever, and b) medically themed.

I hate names that are simple derivations of last names. This, by definition, means I am unable to in good faith cheer on "The Goods" (or "The Frum," though I actually kind of like Frum as a word). Ryan's team is actually the one that most mirrors mine in terms of points for and against. We're both spotty, threatening in small bursts, but prone to epic meltdowns. And the playoffs have no room for two does of mediocrity!

I've been dazzled all season by Donel's team...but after putting up 47 points against Kyle's fat amoeba of a team, I'm beginning to doubt. Without Chris Johnson, Donel's team is nothing. I've said that before. He's a 50-65 point team + Chris Johnson...which sometimes means 45 extra points. Donel is living and dying by one player. Concern!

Finally, my good friend (?) Peter. Let's pause for a minute and notice that Peter has scored 877 points this season. The only other person under 1000 is Kim, who has scored 996. Peter has scored 119 less points that his closest competition in points suckage, which is just a smidge less than 10 points a game. The points leader, Scott, has scored 325 more points that Peter this season...or about 27 more points per game. Peter is 27 points a week worse than Scott, yet they have the same record. IS THIS EPICALLY UNFAIR? I think so.

So here's what our possible scenarios are for the playoffs

Kyle can finish: #1

Travis can finish:
#2 with a win over Drew
#3 with a loss to Drew AND a Rob loses AND Ryan loses (Ryan has tiebreaker on Travis)
#4 with a loss AND loss by Rob OR Ryan
#5 with a loss [and none of the above criteria are met]

Drew can finish:
#2 with a win over Travis
#3 with a loss AND Rob loses AND Donel loses AND Ryan loses
#4 with a loss AND at least 2 of Rob, Donel and Ryan lose
#5 with a loss AND Rob loses OR Donel loses OR Ryan loses
#6 with a loss [and none of the above criteria are met]

Rob can finish:
#2 if he somehow wins and scores 81 more points than Drew, who also must win. Not happening.
#3 with a win
#4 with a loss AND Donel loses AND Ryan loses
#5 with a loss AND Donel loses OR Ryan loses
#6 with a loss [and none of the above criteria are met]

Ryan can finish:
#3 with a win AND Rob loses AND Donel loses
#4 with a win AND Rob loses OR Donel loses
#5 with a win (and none of the above) or with a loss AND Donel loses AND Scott loses (Scott and Donel both have tiebreaker over Ryan)
#6 with a loss AND Scott loses OR Donel loses

[ONLY Scott and Donel can beat Ryan for a spot in the playoffs, if tied]

Donel can finish:
#3 with a win AND Drew loses AND Rob loses
#4 with a win AND Drew loses OR Rob loses
#5 with a win (and none of the above) or with a loss AND Ryan loses AND Scott loses (Scott has a tiebreaker on Donel, too) AND Jason wins by less than 27
#6 with a loss AND Ryan loses AND EITHER Scott loses OR Jason wins by less than 27

[ONLY Scott or Jason (if he scores >27 pts more than Donel) can pass Donel for a playoff spot.]

Scott can finish:
#6 with a win AND Ryan loses (since Scott loses a tiebreaker to Jason but wins one with Donel, a Donel loss will put Jason in front of him, and a Jason loss will put Donel in front of him, so that game is moot)

Jason can finish:
#6 with a win by more than 27 points AND Scott loses (Scott holds the tiebreaker)

Peter can finish: not in the playoffs after all! He loses a tiebreaker to Scott, Ryan, and Donel. He only beats Jason in tiebreakers. He CANNOT pass Kyle/Travis/Drew/Myself based on record, and since Donel and Ryan will at minimum finish 6-7 and he cannot pass either, he's toast. Better luck next year!

I hope that was enlightening...now I need to go to bed. If you thought this involved some numbers crunching, wait until you see what I'm planning for when the playoffs are over! 

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Wednesday Night Quarterback, Week 9: Five Signs of the Apocalypse

Number 1: Look's Who Lurking (at the bottom of the leaderboard)

Every time I log into fantasy football, I'm reminded of two things: Jason and Scott. The Fever-Baker Dynasty started as a joke...until last year, when they proved, yet again, to be unbeatable. It doesn't matter how good your team is, how many wins you had in the regular season, or what seed you are in the playoffs. That's because Jascott is going to turn around and put up 150 points in the championship game in a big 'ol fuck you to the man.

Or at least, that's how it used to be. I woke up this morning, and guess who's #9 and #10?

Now, I'm not going to say these two are eliminated. 6-7 teams routinely make the playoffs in our league...I think a 5-8 team threatened to make the playoffs last year (that would be me. Travis may have actually been 5-8, but I don't remember). If you get to seven wins you are all but assured a playoff spots.

The difference this year is that we don't have as much disparity at the top or bottom. There's no Kim or Peter (2009 editions) to go 0-10/1-9 and give the rest of us easy wins. We might actually NEED to have winning records to make the playoffs.

I also can't say that Scott or Jason suck. Well, maybe Jason does (Brandon Jackson still haunts his nightmares, no doubt), but Scott is the #1 scariest team at this point. Let's break this down. Scott is the #10 team in our league, and the #1 highest scoring team in our league. IS THAT EVEN POSSIBLE? This might be the only case of this being true in the history of ESPN Fantasy Football. Seriously, we should email Mr. Roto and see if anyone else has done this. It's amazing.

The #1 team I least want to play is Prestige Worldwide. If he makes the playoffs: armageddon. But for now, I'll laugh at his misfortune.

2) WTF Standings?

I know I've said this before, but apparently our standings do not function like I once thought. Scott, who has 140 more points that Jason, is ranked below him. Peter, who has about 180 less points than Travis, is ranked ahead of him. I've figured out the reason: the tiebreaker in our league is set to Head-to-Head record...then to PF in the case of a tie. Genius! So Peter's paltry point total doesn't matter...if he beat you 12 to 9 during The Suck Bowl, he's still got the advantage.

3) How can Kyle not make the playoffs?

Okay, this is complicated...here goes.

First off, Kyle needs to lose out. That would put him at 7-6. 6 teams, then, need to have that record or better. Here's how it would have to play out:

Week 10:
Travis beats Rob (actually irrelevant, and I'll tell you why, later)
Peter beats Scott
Drew beats Jason
Ryan beats Kyle
Donel beats Kim

Week 11:
Rob beats Kyle
Travis beats Donel (irrelevant as long as Travis beat me in week 10)
Drew beats Scott
Peter beats Ryan
Kim/Jason game irrelevant

Week 12:
Peter beats Rob
Travis beats Jason
Ryan beats Scott
Donel beats Kyle
Drew beats Kim

Week 13
Rob beats Scott
Drew beats Travis
Peter beats Kyle
Donel beats Jason
Ryan beats Kim

This would give Peter, Ryan, Donel, and Travis 8 wins, and myself and Drew 7 wins. However, since we've got that handy tie, our 7-3-1 beats all tiebreakers with Kyle, putting him in seventh place.

These are NOT THE ONLY TEAMS THAT CAN MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. However, in the case that any other team substitutes into one of the above six slots, the chance of Kyle making the playoffs rises exponentially. Basically, in order to keep Kyle our, all of the 5-4 or better teams + Ryan Good + one of the 3 win teams need to step up, and specifically, Kyle needs to lose out and one of the 3 win teams needs to win out. Since Kyle has a tiebreaker over Jason, it's mathematically impossible for him to be ranked ahead of Kyle in the final rankings. Scott has the tiebreaker over Kyle, and Drew's record is F'd up by the tie, so they are both viable options to overtake Kyle. HOWEVER. Since Scott and Drew play head to head only one of them can reach 7 wins. Scott, meanwhile, plays only teams that need wins (myself, Peter, Ryan), while Drew plays only teams that I've eliminated (Jason, Kim, the latter of which I'l explain in a second) + Travis, who can stand to potentially lose two games, since he has a tiebreaker on Kyle.

So why is Kim out? First off, The fact that she plays Ryan Good and Donel means that she fucks up the whole process of keeping Kyle out of the playoffs. Also, she lose a tiebreak to Kyle, so she can't lose any games and pass him. Donel's fate is in his own hands, and if Ryan can beat Kyle by 36 or more in their second meeting he holds the tiebreaker. Kim's the weakest 4 win team.

There are other permutations that can lead to ultimate victory over the Kyle menace, but this is a guideline. Scott, make sure to lose out, okay?

4) Coincidence...OR FATE???

We've had only our second tie in the history of our league occur between myself and Drew. He also has the same number of points scored. CRAZY WEIRD.

5) The total reversal of trends

There are some things, in this football league, that we hold self-evident. Peter at the bottom of our league. Girls uniformly sucking and doing dumb things (Steven Jackson-gate, ahem). Jascott on top of the league. Travis and Kyle battling for third place. My team starting 1-5, then rising from the ashes only to fall just short of the promised land. Jason getting all of the free agents moments before anyone else has a chance.

What happened? We changed draft style, we changed the waiver wire, and suddenly, everything is in shambles. JaScott are at the bottom of the league, Kim's clawing towards a playoff spot, I'm in 2nd freaking place, Peter's team is still awful but in the LUCKIEST WAY EVER, and Jason spent all of his free agent money in Week 2 and has been forced to pick up every fourth string RB in the league over and over praying for injuries. The times they are a changin'.

I'm going to crunch the numbers at the end of the year, but I'm beginning to get a better idea of what worked and what didn't in regards to spending our fantasy cash. The answer: nothing specific. Kyle and Ryan had the same strategy; spend big then pick up some stragglers. For Kyle, that has worked out beautifully (though I still argue it's luck). For Ryan, the result has been more meh. Scott, Jason, and I, meanwhile, all went for the spend-$20-on-everyone approach, which has, to put it lightly, affected each of our fortunes differently as well. I thought for sure I'd have this all figured out by now, but the sad truth is, nobody knows anything.

Bonus #6: I don't know if anyone noticed, but I was one player away from pitching a perfect hitter on the bench...as in...0 points lost on bench players. Ouch. Depth, anyone?

Bonus #7: This is just for my own edification, but WTF Stephen Gostkowski?!? How many times do kickers get injured early in games???

Text Messages of the Week!

Scott: Fever is challenging Peters season low for scoring. 33 pts with one player left...Peter is kicking his ass with 43 points.
Peter: I'm proud of that award. If you can't be good, be epically bad.

Well put, Peter, well put.

Awards Roundup

Spotlight on Awesomeness: Scott

Remember, Scott, when we left you for dead two weeks ago at 1-6? I'm not saying you're going to make it all the way back, but I spoke to Travis on the phone and said, "God, I hope I don't have to play Scott." Scott Baker: The Destroyer of Dreams

Blackout on Suckiness: Jason

Jason's team is a wreck. There's definitely blow up potential lurking amongst the trash, but I'd have to say that week in, week out, Jason's team is the most likely to melt down. BLACKOUT OF SHAME ON YOUR FAMILY.

Eagle Eye Award: It's a tie! Me with Arian Foster, and Travis with Peyton Hillis, both with 31 points. Bet you wouldn't have thought those two would be top 5 RBs at the beginning of the season.

Scrub Starters of the Weak (I spelled it that way on purpose)

Rob: Steve Smith, 0 pts (anyone want to trade with me?)
Jason: Seahawks D/ST, -5 pts (Wow, worst performance all season by a player?)
Kim: Patriots D/ST, -2 pts (I'm mourning this one)
Kyle: Darren Sproles, 0 pts

Power Rankings

Since I've realized that, duh, ranking teams in a league with ranks is pointless, I decided to mix it up this week and rank teams in terms of buzz. This way, my subjective rankings are of a subjective statistic.

1) Scott: Buzzmeter: Cranked to 11

Everyone's talking about Scott right now. Or at least myself, Travis, and Peter, though I bet Jason is sitting in Ann Arbor cursing Scott's name as well. That name change really turned the tides, didn't it? I wish I could hack into the system and somehow change your name so your players would, once again, be mortal.

2) Peter: Buzzmeter: The sound of a thousand children crying

How can your team be this bad and win all these games? HOW? When you beat me in Week 12, I will find some way to burn your house down.

3) Kyle: Buzzmeter: Middle-Aged Bee

It's hard not to have buzz when you're on top. But it's beginning to feel, more and more, that their might be a new queen in town, and that Kyle's reign at the top of the hive pecking order may soon be over.

4) Rob: Buzzmeter: Enough to make Peter's head explode

Second place, bitches. Another week over one hundred points! I'm going to ride Arian Foster all the way to the bank

5) Travis: Buzzmeter: Southern Cicada

I need to get a bye week so I don't have to face Travis in the first round. Oh god, oh god.

6) Donel: Buzzmeter: Horsefly

Donel, what's up, man? Losing to Drew this week? You can't do this whole "Im'a score 130 points this week, now I'm going to score 70. Oh look, 110! Whoops, 60 pts" thing any more. It's making us (me) lose faith. You're no longer headline material...more like third page, next to the weight loss ads. Not that you need to lose weight, or anything. I've said too much.

7) Drew: Buzzmeter: Resurrected

Good win this week...I think you might be back from the dead. One more win and I'm going to pencil you into the "almost has the chance to maybe compete for a playoff spot" column of my fantasy football master notebook stats list.

8) Ryan: Buzzmeter: Soft hum

I'm losing hope, and actually don't have much to say, which means I'm not feeling it from The Goods, right now.

9) Jason: Buzzmeter: Sad trombone

I'd probably make fun of your team more but I know that you're probably clinically depressed from how bad you've been, recently, and it's no fun to make fun of someone who's on fantasy football suicide watch. Bad karma, and all.

10) Kim: Buzzmeter: PEA

Dear Kim,

Really? 4-5? You put up 58 points this week? Kim, you started off this season so well that I really though you'd have a chance to prove to us all that not all girls who play fantasy football are of the Carissa/Annie/Nava/Karen Kinnaman (who, when was the last time I thought about Karen Kinnaman?) variety. I thought you were going to have this down! I don't even get much smack talk out of you, which makes you infinitely less fun. You're team is like the guy I saw down in the ED today who had a bullet go through his heart but still had a faint glimmer of cardiac activity. I think you're with it enough that I'm willing to give your team a thoracotomy, but I'd be lying if I said there was a good chance you'll get your pulses back.

Love,

Rob

Now for a totally new segment

I hate predicting the games. It makes me anxious, and it's pointless, because who really knows anything about what's going to happen? Instead, welcome to the first installment of Playoff Watch, where I'll break down the permutations of who needs to do what in order to reach the playoffs.

Game 1: Travis vs Rob

In my last four games, three of them are against the top teams in our league (Kyle, Travis, and Peter), or the most devastating (Scott). The chance of me going 0-4 and missing the playoffs is real. We're too far out to call this a make-or-break moment, but this is a game I've got a reasonable chance to win and need desperately. Travis, meanwhile, draws Jason and Drew (which I think he'll win), plus a toss up with Donel. Beating Jason and Drew would give him 7 wins, and, in my opinion, a playoff spot.

For Rob: Really Would Like To Win
For Travis: A Win Would Only Make My Seeding Better

Game 2: Peter vs. Scott

Peter plays Scott, myself, Kyle, and Ryan, the only game of which I'd consider an "easy" game is the one vs. Ryan. Peter does NOT put up enough points week to week to deal with a good week from Scott or myself, but he's got a very realistic chance against Kyle and Ryan. Those two wins would give him seven, which would be enough for a playoff spot. Scott needs to win 3/4, IMO, to make the playoffs, but even that might be dicey, depending about how it all plays out. 7 wins is my predicted cut off, which makes this:

Scott: Not MUST win, but OMG If I don't win this I'm really fucking my own asshole
Peter: Meh, better luck next week

Game 3: Drew vs Jason

Cripple fight! Both of these teams need this win in order to make it all the way to seven, but at 6 wins Drew would be in better shape than anyone else as he'd finish at .500. Jason has terrible PFs, and even if he wins out he'll only have a tiebreaker advantage over five teams: Kim, Travis, Scott, Drew, Donel. Really, in the race for a fifth or sixth spot, the Drew/Scott tiebreakers are drastically less useful, as it is unlikely more than one of the three will factor into the hunt. Donel and Travis are more likely to compete for a 1-4 spot (though time will tell). The Kim tiebreaker helps. But if he loses to Drew this week, I think he might be sunk. Ultimately, I think...

Drew: Could definitely use the win, but alive regardless
Jason: Looking pretty desperate.

Game 4:Ryan vs. Kyle

Kyle's just going for a bye-week, now; Ryan, meanwhile is in an unlucky spot in the pack. He's only got tiebreaker over two teams ahead of him: Peter and Travis. He has the chance to lose that advantage over Peter in Week 11. Ryan could use every win, though this one won't be as important as the subsequent three, as Kyle isn't really his direct competition for a playoff spot.

Ryan: Yes, I would like to win, please
Kyle: Bah, like I care about winning? Opulence, I has it.

Game 5: Donel vs Kim

This is my spotlight game of the week. A win by Kim here puts her at .500 and well on her way to controlling her own playoff destiny. A win for Donel, meanwhile, would take him from "Probable Playoff Spot" to "Possible Bye Week," which is a HUGE jump.

Donel: I don't want to face Scott or Travis in the first round, either
Kim: I'm so excited! I'm so excited! I'm so...scared!

My predictions for possible playoff seeding:
Kyle: 1-2
Rob: 1-5 (that "1" is pretty optimistic)
Donel: 1-5
Peter: 2-6
Travis: 2-6
Kim: 3-6
Ryan: 4-6
Drew: 5-6
Jason: 6
Scott: 5-6

One Last Thing




http://www.amctv.com/originals/The-Walking-Dead/

Everyone should watch this show. I never thought I'd see a human being get chopped up with an ax on basic cable.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

[Thurs]day Night Quarterback, Week 8: Special Turnabout is Fairplay Edition


Obviously, I'm not one for deadlines...but luckily, Peter has turned my patented formula of 100% insults, 0% data, into his own Peter edition of WNQ. I'm going to post that here, right now. But I'm not letting him be QB, because I'm QB, and there's only one QB on the team. He can play defense or something. 


By Peter: Wednesday Night Free Safety

Given Rob’s inability to come through with a timely recap of our week’s events again, I thought I’d attempt to fill the void with a special guest edition of some form of ____ Night Quarterback. A couple of side notes before we get started:

1. So seriously when does Rob’s intern year actually start? Orientation month, Cardiology consults, Ultrasound, and a shift work ED month make up his first 1/3 of the year? What is this the Nebraska Upstairs Residency in Emergency Medicine? (2 cocktails to whoever gets my Simpson’s reference). Last time I checked 4th year of medical school ended sometime in May. [Editor's note: I want those cocktails, but I don't know enough about this. Also, not my fault y'all chose to work hard and stuff] 
2. At one point I planned to attempt to model this after Rob’s previous posts, but then came to find that ESPN doesn’t save any old league manager notes. As Rob only made available the URL to his blog containing old manager notes in a subsequently unavailable league manager note (well played, Rob), I can’t find one for modeling. I’ll be doing my own thing. [Editor's note: Mwahaha! My bad. It's ichooseweswelker.blogspot.com] 
3. As you might have guessed this post will focus heavily on exacting revenge for the endless slights directed my way in previous editions of this space. Suck it, Rob. [Editor's note: I can't be mad. I'll give you this week and punish you in all the following. Besides, I only speak the truth.] 

Last Week In Review:

Mile High Club vs My Team:
Off the bat let me reiterate Rob’s aforementioned disappointment in Travis’s team name. It’s easily in my top 10 most disappointing aspects of this season (along with my regrettable draft strategy, my team’s glaring point scoring inadequacies, and Rob’s continued existence). Quite frankly I caught Travis on as good of a week as I could have imagined. He loses Tony Romo and his top 2 RBs are on byes. Thank you very much lady luck for that (and for TO’s 2nd TD for anyone who happened to have seen it). Top performer goes to TO and his 18 points. Shat the Bed award is bestowed upon Randy Moss and his 0 point performance. Talk about a disappointing turn to a season. Did anyone actually expect him to do well outside of Brady’s bubble of awesomeness? Do you remember him in Oakland?

The Goods vs Blow Schaub:
Ryan ontinues to claw back from the bottom with some of the strangest fantasy point scorers in recent memory. 56 points out of LaGarrette Blount, Dan Carpenter, and the Ram’s Defense? Zeroes from Marshawn Lynch and Owen Daniels? Let’s give you the benefit of the doubt this week and pretend like you’re a genius for the way that played out. Meanwhile, Jason’s team of misfit toys put on a solid performance again. He continues to reinvent himself and continues to leave buckets of points on the bench because no one has any God damn clue who on his team might score 20 or 0 points each week. I love you for playing Mike Hart and having him actually put up a decent performance before getting hurt. Something about that sounds vaguely familiar. Top performer goes to LeGarrette Blount (I had to double check the spelling on his first name 3 times). Who would have thought being an angry man willing to punch other people in the face with little provocation would translate well to the NFL? Shat the bed award goes to the Seahawks D. That combined -3 points from your kicker and defense had to hurt, Jason. Defense and special teams win games something something.

Rob’s Stupid Name of the Week vs The Frum:
I was rooting for Drew here (for obvious reasons, but also…) because he participated in one of my wins last week. Things didn’t quite work out for me. The only other tie I can recall in our league was way back in the inaugural year of our league when I won a match up I believe against Kyle by 1 point, but then the next day they readjusted the stats and took away that 1 point victory in an effort to surprise me the kick in the balls I was expecting. Anyhow, as they say, “A tie is like kissing your sister.” Except, in this case, your sister is Rob who is drunk and has a raging case of oral HSV. Pretty much very unfortunate for all parties involved. Rob managed to move up in the standings here by just not losing. 1 point less and he joins the pack of 4-4 teams. This season is looking like it might get weird and ties don’t help. Top performer goes to Arian Foster who continues to exceed expectations. Shat the bed award goes to the Viking’s defense. Can anyone recall a worse week than -4 points? Yikes. Another side note: Cedric Benson continues to prove his fantasy value with another sub-8 point performance for a starting RB. More on this later.

Prestige Worldwide vs D Money All Day
Scott finally gets a much deserved win. Don’t lose your dinosaur, Scott: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8gY0IT0CuA. I’m pretty sure this new name will be the turning point for you. Anyway, he basically had this thing wrapped up after the early games. Donel had a slow week with none of his players blowing up for 25+ points like usual (thank you much for being human, Chris Johnson). Donel is quietly trying his best to creep back into the pack at the moment. Performer of the week goes to Megatron and his 28 points. If only he could finish the entire process of his catches when making contact with the ground. Shat the bed award goes to Hines Ward and his 1 point. I still maintain Donel got him at least for free in the Orton:Cutler and Ward trade.

Now to explain my Cedric Benson comment from earlier. In last week’s midseason review, Rob stated RBs were one of his strengths and talked about Cedric Benson being a solid performer. He has 71 points on the year. Rob then went on to say that Scott’s RB situation was ambiguous because Adrian Peterson = good, Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones =bad. Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles split time (though really Jones is Charles’s backup in my mind) Jones has scored 2 less points less this year than Benson at 69. Charles has now scored 89 points. I’m not sure I can call either of those guys bad. I feel confident that RB is one of Scott’s strong positions. I don’t remember the last time you played Jones though, Scott. Are you ready to trade him my way yet? [Editor's Note: I'm not going to lie and say I'm happy with Benson's recent suckiness. But he's, before that, not been too shabby. AF is clearly my star, no doubt, with the Colts twins right behind, when not seriously injured. Also, Benson may be sucking, but Jones keeps gobbling up Charles' worth. I think they're both spotty because you don't know week to week who'll get the TD.] 

Team Buffalo vs Hasselbeck’s Last Stand
Kyle wins…again. He’s just having one of those years where no one ever has a good week against him. Solid performances from Peyton and MJD drove the bus this week against Kim’s top-heavy team (zing boob reference for the one female in our league). But seriously outside of QB/RB this week her team put up 16 points. That’s not helping your overcome Kyle’s deal with the devil. How solid have The Law Firm, LT, and McFadden been lately though? I honestly thought the trade of Peterson for those 3 was going to be horribly one-sided and I could not have been more wrong. AP has been sick, scoring 56 points over the last 3 weeks, but sometimes quantity rules over quality. The above trio has scored 122 points over those 3 weeks with one bye and one week missed for injury. That works out to an average of 17.4 points per player per week. I could go for 3 RBs averaging greater than 17 points/week about now. Anyhow, top performer goes to The Law Firm and his 28. Shat the bed award goes to Kellen Winslow with a big fat 0. Kenny Britt gets a pass because his hamstring exploded.

Thoughts On The State Of The League:
-Kyle continues to dominate, all but assured at least a playoff berth at this point. I don’t feel like trying to figure out how certain that is because it’s going to end up being irrelevant.
-There’s a big cluster fuck in the middle with 4 teams at 4-4 and Rob narrowly avoiding becoming the 5th. Things should get interesting down the stretch, though all can take solace in the fact that I will never win any tiebreaker with my point total. [Editor's Note: I'm unclear if this is true. Head-to-head wins might play a role in tiebreakers. Disaster for me.] 
-Ryan and I continue to try to dig our way out of the cellar after questionable starts. In spite of all of Rob’s trash talk, we’re currently the only teams on winning streaks. [Editor's note: I'll believe it when I see it! 
-Scott finally gets another win. Let’s all hope his luck isn’t changing and he’s making a late season push. His team has been a beast for a while now.

Fearless Predictions (or thoughts I pull out of my ass):
Blow Schaub vs Mile High Club – Jason by 20. I can’t pick myself and my team does nothing but disappoint. TO is due for a 0 week.

The Goods vs Rob’s Stupid Name Of The Week – Ryan by one million. That’s all I’m going to say. [Editor's Note: Unfortunately, I don't disagree.] 

Hasselbeck’s Last Stand vs My Team – Travis gets his RBs back and pulls this one out by 3.

Team Buffalo vs Prestige Worldwide – Scott’s last place juggernaut is predicted to score 137 points this week. Yikes. Scott finds his dinosaur and wins by 15.

D Money All Day vs The Frum – ESPN has Drew scoring 131 this week based on predictions. That’s not happening. I feel a Donel bounce back, winning by 7.

And just for emphasis: (Insert disparaging remark about Rob here) [Editor's Note: How about, "Have fun on Trauma Surgery call, Rob."] 

You should probably bump this to front page in a readable format so all can appreciate it.

[Editor's Note: I enjoyed that. Peter, you want to get a chance to do this every year? It's good to get a chance to be scoffed at like I scoff at all of y'all clowns.] 

[Postscript: You know how much of a hassle all of that HTML is? I hate computers.

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Wednesday Night Quarterback, Week 7: Extra Late Friday Edition



Ever have one of those weeks where it was just impossible to make a deadline? Yea, it happens. Whatever. No excuses...no mercy!

Welcome to the special MidSeason WNQ team evaluation, where I'll break down each team by its strengths and weaknesses...as well as snark it up while belittling them.

Kyle: Team Buffalo
Record: 6-1
PF: 591 (#7)
PA: 448 (#10) [Note: for PA a #10 rankings means teams have put up the LEAST points against him]
Current Rank: 1
Weeks breaking 100 pts: 1
Weeks under 60 pts: 1
Opponents-Played-Thus-Far Record:20-29
Opponents-To-Come Record: 20-22

Right now Kyle's team is sitting at the top of the heap, but not for strong team management/explosive players/a balanced team. Right now the prevailing argument is luck. Kyle has played only two of the teams with winning records to this point...and only beat one (and beating me barely counts as beating a team with a winning record). In his showdown with Travis he managed to put up...49 points. Kyle's team has broken 100 points only once (shocking for a one loss team), but does manage to stay mostly in the 80s to 90s. What does this mean? This mean's Kyle's team doesn't seem capable of putting up the numbers most of the rest of teams can week to week, but is less likely to fall apart, also.

Strong Men:
QB: Peyton Manning. Kansas City aside, there are very few more consistent options in the NFL.

Weak Vaginas:
RB: When MJD is about as consistent as you can get at RB, you're in trouble. DeAngelo Williams (or, he who is destined to underperform) has been pretty overall sucky, and remember, this is the team that started Willis McGahee one game this season. And that's it. No other running backs. It's astonishing (and speaks to the strength of the rest of his team) that Kyle even has a winning record. Who said RBs are important? But seriously, Kyle, two back up scrub QBs? You can't bare to drop either Chad Henne or Josh Freeman? Do you really expect to bench Peyton for any games this season?

TE: Really? Jeremy Shockey? How many years must he suck before people stop playing him?

Ambiguous Genitalia:
WRs. What a group of misfits...two NYJ receivers who get no points on a routine basis, a just acquired by NE Deion Branch, and a couple of scrubs who every once and a while blow up for 25-40 points (hello, Malcolm Floyd and Kenny Britt). I'd be tempted to sat Kyle just has the pulse on WRs in this league, but really, if my other options were Holmes and Cotchery I'd invest in Kenny Britt, too.

Forecast: Kyle finally gets a chance to play some real teams in the second half. After a cupcake battle in Week 9 vs Scott, Kyle faces a four week stretch of Ryan Good (awful but revitalized), myself (looking for redepemtion?), Donel (he of 200 points per game), and finally Peter (maybe revitalized but mostly awful). I think Kyle walks out of the next 6 weeks 3 and 3 with losses to Donel, one of the "almost-there!" teams (Ryan or Peter) and one to either me or Kim (probably Kim, but hopefully me. At 9-4, though, he'll easily make the playoffs.

Donel: D Money All Day
Record: 5-2
PF: 697 (#1)
PA: 564 (#9)
Current Rank: 2
Weeks breaking 100 pts: 3
Weeks under 60 pts: 0
Opponents-Played-Thus-Far Record:23-26
Opponents-To-Come Record: 20-22

Donel's team is a beast. Like many winning teams, everyone seems to melt down when playing Donel (though, at #9 in PA, he's still had over 100 more points scored against him than Kyle). But Donel, who has 3 weeks over 100, needs no help from underachievers. As has been witnessed by many (most recently, me), Donel enjoys driving a stake through the heart of the weak. No team thus far this season (with the exception of maybe Travis) has demonstrated the ability to put up this many points. Fear!

Strong Men:
QB: With just Rivers I wouldn't have thought so highly of Donel's QB position, but add in Big Ben? Kaching! Thanks for Kyle Orton, btw.
RB: In Johnson and Jackson, Donel has the perfect balance of explosiveness (Johnson says hello to 30 points!) and consistency (in the past 6 weeks, Jackson has scored between 11-16 points). Sure, Johnson shits the bed here and there. But damn if he isn't a nightmare sometimes. His other RBs may have underachieved, but who needs em?

Weak Vaginas:
TE: I'm stretching here. Donel's team is pretty good.

Ambiguous Genitalia
WR: Roddy White is a beast. Have no doubt. But with Austin Collie out for awhile/ever, Donel's WR group isn't too hot. If Roddy White has a bad day Donel can expect little to nothing from his receivers.

Forecast: Donel gets a couple gimmes before a final four of Kim/Travis/Kyle/Jason. I think he'll be losing no more than one of his next six games (I'd guess Travis has a chance, or Kim. Not Kyle.), and that would finished him off at 10-3. Definitely playoff material.

Travis: My Team
Record: 4-3
PF: 637 (#2)
PA: 571 (#7)
Current Rank: 3
Weeks breaking 100 pts: 1
Weeks under 60 pts: 0
Opponents-Played-Thus-Far Record:24-25
Opponents-To-Come Record: 21-21

I didn't realize this until just now: Travis has the #2 overall points with only one score of over 100. Wow. The answer to why that is is because Travis' low score on the season is 77. As they say, it might not be pretty, but it gets the job done. Plus, Travis' opponents have 4 more wins than either Kyle or Donel can claim...though, I'll admit, as Kyle can't play himself, he's destined to play teams with overall less wins. But not necessarily 4 less. So Travis' team has taken a beating...and held up pretty well!

Strong Men:
WR: Six startable WRs?!? It's a fantasy football dream/nightmare. WRs are destined to be up and down, but there's enough explosiveness lurking to a thumbs up.
D/ST: THE STEEL CURTAIN

Weak Vaginas:
TE: A couple of early explosive games aside, I don't love Dustin Keller. Weeeaaaaak saaaauuce.

Ambiguous Genitalia:
QB: Carson Palmer. Wow. Really? Palmer? I know he's been "resurgent" of late (those are ESPN's words, not mine), but I'm not sure I'd give my fantasy livelihood to this guy. That being said, so far I've trusted Favre, Cutler, and Orton with my team, so maybe I should just shaddap.
RB: I've said it before and I'll say it again: you can't draft all of Atlanta's RBs and just pray for something good. Disappointment looms. Also, Danny Woodhead starting these week? Prepare to a loss!

Forecast: Travis has the misfortune of another meeting with Donel, but I think Travis has the chance to pull out the win. He also faces two teams that have beaten him before (Jason and Kim), and I'm sure he'll lose one of those. My team, actually, has faced off notriously well as underdogs against Travis, much to his chagrin, so I'm a possible sleeper here. Peter and Drew I'm notching in Travis' win column. I'm thinking 4-2, with a final record of 8-5, definite playoffs.

Rob: BenSon of Sam* (*name probably out of date by the time you read this)
Record: 4-3
PF: 593 (#6)
PA: 648 (#3)
Current Rank: 4 (I'll address this in a second)
Weeks breaking 100 pts: 3
Weeks under 60 pts: 1
Opponents-Played-Thus-Far Record:25-24
Opponents-To-Come Record: 19-23

First off, why do the standings rank me as 4th? Kim clearly has more PFs than I do, and I thought that was the first tiebreaker...unless it's, gasp, HEAD TO HEAD STANDINGs? Wow, if that is true I'll do a little jig, as I've beaten Kim, Jason, and Ryan, all who might at some point try to haunt me as I struggle for that last playoff spot with my paltry PF. Woohoo! That being said, I'm the first team in the rankings to have a) played against teams with a winning record, b) have an opponents-to-play record with under 20 wins, c) have a negative PF/PA balance (when I lose, I lose big), and d) sort of suck pretty consistently. I'm as astonished as y'all are that I'm in the top 4 (ish).

Strong Men:
RB: I've got 7! Admittedly, one of them is just a handcuff, and one flat out sucks (here's looking at you, Michael Bush), but with Arian Foster occasionally just blowing the fuck up, Cedric Benson proving he's still got some fantasy value, and Addai redeeming himself (when not breaking both ankles), I think RB might be my ONLY strong point.
TE: I lied. Zach Miller is awesome.

Weak Vaginas:
D/ST: The Bears have been nice, but they can't make up for the troubles I've had...

Ambigious Genitalia:
QB: Sure, Orton's great, but I threw away much time on the Brett Favre train. Playing at over 40? He's clearly no Testaverde.
WRs: Sure, they're good something, but THEY'RE ALL F$#@$ HURT! ALL THE TIME!

Forecast: I will lose again to Kyle. I will admit that now. Of my other 5 games, I think I'll win 3 (if I had to guess, I'd say against Scott, Drew, and Peter...though he's burned me before). A 3-3 record would make me 7-6, probably enough for a playoff spot. Then, and only then, will I cackle with evil laughter. Mwahahaha! Whoops, premature cackler.

Kim: Hasselbeck's Last Stand
Record: 4-3
PF: 622 (#4)
PA: 565 (#8)
Current Rank: 5
Weeks breaking 100 pts: 3
Weeks under 60 pts: 1
Opponents-Played-Thus-Far Record:22-27
Opponents-To-Come Record: 23-19

Kim is really the tale of two teams: first, the team that beat Travis and Donel back-to-back in the opening weeks, as well as destroyed peter 109-37. Second, the team that lost to Drew when he could only put up 71 and who lost to me when only put up 86. Kim's team is bipolar in all of the worst ways; she beats all the top teams and loses to the scrubs...thus assuring herself important tiebreakers when it comes to deciding playoffs spots. Good for her, bad for us.

(Since Kim is a fem, I'll alter the next part for her sake)

Voluptuous Vagines:
RB: AP was a stud...but is replaced by two studs, LT and McFadden. I don't even mind that she's starting Green-Ellis! She's that good!
WR: A little iffy sometimes...but the depth! Welker, Hakeem Nicks, some guy on Seattle who's hot right now...I'll buy it

Flaccis Penii
QB: Sorry, Tom. Your numbers this year suck.

Ambiguous Genitalia
None, really. Kim's players have clearly chosen their teams.

Forecast:Kim'm team is just screaming 3-3 from here on out. She'll probably beat Kyle and Travis as well as one of the 3-4 teams, and lose the rest, including her game with Drew. Kim always does the opposite of what is expected of her. That being said, she might still lose to Kyle this week, which will be a damned shame.

Jason: Blow Schaub (I still love that name)
Record: 3-4
PF: 587 (#8)
PA: 705 (#1)
Current Rank: 6
Weeks breaking 100 pts: 2
Weeks under 60 pts: 1
Opponents-Played-Thus-Far Record:26-23 (rough)
Opponents-To-Come Record: 21-20 (rough)

Jason: this year the fates conspired against you. Though keeping track of things like opponents records is futile since we all basically play the same people, 3 of the 4 teams you play twice this year have winning records. Everyone puts up tons of points against you (over 100 per game!), and your last three games of the season, the ones that will ultimately make or break your on the fence team, are against Kim, Travis, and Donel. Granted, you're also the blame for your terrible Points For (I feel your pain, brother), and your wanton spending of free agent cash (How much did you pay for Brandon Jackson, again? I think I got him for $15...). But this year everything has been stacked against you. To which I say: mwahahaha! Whoops, slipped again.

Strong Men:
WR: I don't even know most of your WRs...or at least I didn't until you started them and they scored 30 points. How is this possible? You clearly have a knack for picking up players...or you simply pick up so many that you get lucky. Jury's out on that, but your WRs are nothing to scoff at
TE: Grr! Gaaaates!

Weak Vaginas:
RB: This week, Jason will start Mike Hart. (silence)

Ambiguous Genitalia
QB: Schaub this season if either +20 or under 5 on any given week...which would help explain Jason's difficulties winning. I dare him to start Fitzpatrick. The Bills NEVER fail to disappoint. Never. Ever.

Forecast:
So Jason's schedule sucks...for him. I'd say Jason is a trendy spoiler for his final three games but not likely to win any of them. I'd say I do favor him to win the first three...and with an expected flip flop of one (possibly a loss to Peter couple with an upset of Kim), I'd place him at 3-3 with an overall record of 6-7, which in our league tends to make the playoffs at least 66% of the time.

Ryan: The Goods
Record: 3-4
PF: 527 (#9)
PA: 574 (#5)
Current Rank: 7
Weeks breaking 100 pts: 1
Weeks under 60 pts: 2
Opponents-Played-Thus-Far Record: 25-24
Opponents-To-Come Record: 21-21

Ryan's team is the exact opposite from last year; now, instead of no one scoring points against him, he scores points against nobody. He's been under 60 points twice, and his play from week to week has ranged from dreadful to lucky. He's rarely looked solid all around...but hey, 3-4 is 3-4, which in our league is nothing to scoff at.

Strong Men:
QB: Drew Brees is solid, if less prolific than last year. This is all Ryan has going for him.

Weak Vaginas:
WRs: Andre Johnson has under performed, Steve Smith is not great, and Lee Evans, one good game aside, is not the answer to Ryan's woes.

Ambiguous Genitalia:
RBs: Well, there's eight of them, so they can't all be bad, right? Ray Rice, Ryan's "anchor" has been all over the place this season, and the rest of his team is scattered with marginal talent and no name scrubs. Blount this week, Ryan? Really?

Forecast: Cloudy. Remember, Ryan is on a two game streak...but I'm not yet buying in. I think he'll prevail twice on his schedule (I'm picking him over Scott and Peter, though I wouldn't put it past him to win three or lose them all. But realistically I'm placing Ryan at 2-4 over the next 6 games, which would put him at 5-8, not enough to make the playoffs.

Peter: Mile High Club
Record: 3-4
PF: 490 (#10)
PA: 588 (#6)
Current Rank: 8
Weeks breaking 100 pts: 2
Weeks under 60 pts: 4 (disastrous)
Opponents-Played-Thus-Far Record:25-24
Opponents-To-Come Record: 21-21

Peter has under 500 points in 7 games...and has 3 wins?!?! It's bizarre. He's been under 60 points 4 times...and one of the times he won! That victory is still a big mushroom stamp on the face of our league (thanks, Scott). I should commend Peter that he's actually much improved from previous years...in record only. His team is just as bad. Echoing back to a text I received from Kim, "does Peter try to be bad?" I wouldn't put it past him. This is the guy who for Halloween one year went as "creepy."

Strong Men:
None

Weak Vaginas:
QB: Neither McNabb or Sanchez has had a good fantasy week since Week 3. If only he still had Flacco...oh wait, that wouldn't help much, regardless.
RBs: This is the guy who regularly has to start John Kuhn. He picks up any scrub RB (cough, Forsett) dropped by another team because he's that desperate. Knowshon looked good last week, though, so there's hope.

Ambiguous Genitalia:
WRs: There's just so many...and they all have their ups and downs (Except Eddie Royal. Do not want.). I can't fault Pete's WRs...but I can't praise them either. They are the most ambiguous of ambigous genitalia, like a swollen clitoris or something.

Forecast: God, Peter's team boggles my mind. I think Peter could easily lose every game...but I think he'll beat Scott, and I've amassed enough bad Karma against Peter for a million losses...so with a little luck, Peter could go 3-3 and hit 6-7. Playoff bounds? Not without some major tiebreakers, but it'll mark the first time in awhile Peter hasn't been part of the absolute basement.

Drew: The Frum
Record: 2-5
PF: 603 (#5)
PA: 674 (#2)
Current Rank: 9
Weeks breaking 100 pts: 1
Weeks under 60 pts: 0
Opponents-Played-Thus-Far Record:28-21 (the, by far, strongest schedule to date)
Opponents-To-Come Record: 21-21 (NO BREAKS)

Drew is like the Soviet Russia of our league; a lot of hype, but no nuclear weapons. He'll put up plenty of strong performances, but like the Lenins and Stalins of the world, they are simply no match for our own brand of ass-kicking democracy. Drew's team doesn't melt down, but it isn't a 100+ point kind of team, either, and for some reason, everyone he plays seems to get over 100 points (four of his five losses have been to teams scoring 101+ points). He's got a pretty solid team...but he might be in too big of a hole to climb out of.

Strong Men:
QB: Aaron Rodgers = the kind of QB I want. Guaranteed fantasy points, no epic meltdowns, lots of close games for running up passing yards.
RB: As much as I hate Frank Gore, I must give credit where it is due; he's been very beastly this season. Byes hurt Drew this weak (Hello, Tim Hightower), but his RB corp is strong like bull.

Weak Vaginas:
None, actually, but plenty of...

Ambiguous Genitalia
WRs: Good group overall...in the past two weeks. Besides Jennings, I AM NOT CONVINCED. Their spottiness spells trouble

Forecast: I actually think Drew will win 4 of his games, though byes are crushing his soul this week. Hold on, I mean to say Drew has the potential to win 4 games...he probably won't, just because of dumb luck. And 3-3 will not be enough to get him to the playoffs at 5-8. Better luck next year!

Scott: Prestige Worldwide
Record: 1-6 (jeepers)
PF: 624 (#3)
PA: 634 (#3)
Current Rank: Absolutely Last
Weeks breaking 100 pts: 3
Weeks under 60 pts: 1
Opponents-Played-Thus-Far Record:27-22
Opponents-To-Come Record: 23-19

You don't often see the #3 point scorer in the league sitting at #10 with one win. Oh wait, we did, with Peter, last year. Regardless, Scott's team is the new Peter. He's 1-6 but has a 10 point PF/PA difference. That's not unlucky, it's like, cursed unlucky. Scott is actively cursed. Whether it's God punishing Scott for his easy fourth year medical student schedule, his heavy drinking, or some other sundry sin he's stuffed in his washing machine, Scott is fucked this season. Absolutely fucked. Plus, he's the lucky man who gets to play both Kyle and Donel twice (not helping). He also gets Peter and myself, which is more of a tossup, but hey, he's proven he can lose to us in the past.

Strong Men:
QB: Vick and Flacco = good. This week? Byes! Hello Matthew Stafford. This "strong" rating only applies after this week is well over.
WR: Calvin Johnson picks this year to be awesome. WTF?

Weak Vaginas:
Actually, none. I would have said kicker, but I love Janikowski.

Ambiguous Genitalia
RB: AP good. Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles and Felix Jones = bad. I'm split. But their not, like, Peter level of bad, or even Travis.

Forecast: Constant thunderstorms. It's impossible to predict Scott's chances because he's proven week in and week out that he is able to lose at a moment's notice, no matter how many points his opponent puts up. A team in out league HAS made the playoffs from 1-6 before (that would be me, year 1, finishing at 6-7 and claiming the 7th/8 playoff spots), so he's not only mathematically in the equation but has precedent for a late comeback...but that schedule, man! At best he'd go 4-2 (not enough), but more realistically I'm calling 2-4 for a basement dwelling 3-10.


Manager's note: I've started compiling data of how well all of our players do from week to week and plan to have a stat-a-palooza towards the end of the season. This will also serve to show how well people drafted, etc. Just a head's up. I'm also going to give out all the regular awards this week, but I've already talked too much, so you'll have to check your trophy catalog for info.

One last thing...

http://www.hulu.com/watch/187738/saturday-night-live-sex-ed-vincent

This is a must see. 

Friday, October 29, 2010

Wednesday Night Quarterback, Week 6: Timeless Trends and Teams Trapped in the Past


*Note, this week's WNQ may be even shoddier than usual as I'm working all week with no breaks.

There are some thing I've come to rely on in Fantasy Football. And I'm not talking about Matthew Berrys' podcast or the power of a good trade or the fact that Joseph Addai will always be injured for the rest of time. I'm talking about the trends that, year in and year out, will always be fashionable in our fantasy league. Let me present a few of them that are either well on their way to being true or need a little boost to get there.

1) The Curse of the Early Front Runner

I've harped on this before, (and I've lost access to the old leagues, so I can't do my research on this point), but is there any doubt that getting off to an early start is the kiss of death for you fantasy football team? We're all familiar with Ryan's epic 6-0 start as well as his epic 6-7 finish. But we forget the times when Travis, long-considered the dominant team, loses in the playoffs to a much luckier Scott Baker team, which I feel like happens every year. Did Kyle's great suckiness this week remind you of what happens to the frontrunners? For reference, at the end of the second round of games, Kyle still had managed only 9 points. 9! Somebody up there hates Kyle.

2) Playoff Inequity

Our playoffs tend to be like MLB playoffs in that the same teams go every year, with a couple of stragglers thrown in there representing the "hope of the underdog." Case in point: in 3 previous seasons, five teams have made the playoffs every time: Kyle, Travis, Jason, Scott, and Donel (with Donel being the NFC West of the bunch and having zero chance of winning. Regardless!). The other spots have rotated through myself and Drew, though, for all you loyalists, you'll remember the 10 team playoff of our monstrous 14 league team included a ton of people...though I still don't know if Peter was amongst them.

So what does this mean? Well, certainly, Kyle and Travis are in position to repeat their playoffs runs/inevitable losses to Scott or Jason in the finals, sitting at #1 and #3 in our league (the beforementioned curse nonwithstanding). Donel, also, at #2, looks like he's on the right track. And Jason, as up and down as he is this season, is sitting pretty at #5. Unfortunately for our consistency, #10 Scott, while not mathematically eliminated, has a desperately uphill battle to the playoffs. That leaves an unheard of two open spots, ones that myself, Drew, and Kim (!?!?!) are in the hunt for.

3) The Curse of Peter Emiley

Peter has lamented his status as unfortunate league punching bag multiple times in the past, showing off his 3-10 record while boasting 100000 points scored but 100001 points against. Peter's team isn't looking much better this season, but Scott is the one wearing the Shawl of Shame at this point. Scott's losses thus far this season have been by 2, 9, 1, 6, and 1 point. He actually has a positive PF/PA ratio...with only one win! This is the kind of mindboggingly unfortunate statistic usually only slathered on Peter's team. Somewhere inbetween this season and last Peter clearly stuck Scott with a hypodermic needle full of bad karma.

4) Jason + The Waiver Wire/Free Agent Auction

Jason has made 24 acquisitions in 6 weeks. 4 players per game! He leads the league in said stat, as well as in activated players, which I'm not sure what it is, but probably means hes playing a lot of different people all the time. Ridiculous! Now, he's well off his 90+ pace of years before, but it's not for lack of trying, just lack of funds.

Fun fact: Donel has started just 13 different players this season, to Jason's 55. 13! I writhe with envy.

5) All girls who play in our league stink

Up for review! To be determined, pending Kim's resurgence vs. meltdown.

Text Messages of the Week!

I was in Ann Arbor watching these games with Scott, so I don't really have any text messages from him.

Me (to Kyle, after all his early game starters had just finished): Nice 4 points.
Kyle: My guys decided to take the week off

Awards Roundup 

Commissioner's Spotlight on Awesomeness: Ryan Good

He won a game! He scored 101 points! Turns out you can teach a dead dog new tricks.

Commissioner's Blackout on Suckiness: Kyle Bohm

It was looking iffy for awhile as to whether or not Kyle would be able to reach double digits. Guaranteed fail.

The Eagle Eye Award: Jeremy Maclin, 27 pts

Who? You got me. Jason is the king of weird nobodies scoring 27 points.

Scrub Starters of the Week

Kim: Hakeem Nicks = 0 pts
Kyle: Willis McGahee = 0 pts (which Kyle deserved, because who starts Willis McGahee anymore?)
Drew: Nate Washington = 0 pts
Peter: John Kuhn = 0 pts (I'm not even shocked Peter's still playing him)

Power Rankings 

1) Kyle (last week, 1) 5-1

I'm not going to let one week sway me into believing Kyle's team sucks. Just kidding! MWAHAHAHA! THE CURSE IS UPON YOU!

2) Travis (last week, 2) 4-2

What did Travis' fingers say to Kyle's face? I don't know even need to type the answer. You know. I wonder if we've officially seen the changing of the guard

3) Donel (last week, 3)

Uh oh, we're getting kind of stagnant at the top, aren't we? Donel's team wasn't particularly impressive this week, but he didn't have to be! Peter cures all wounds.

4) Me (last week, 4)

I'm man enough to admit that I got lucky Kim's team had a meltdown. I didn't look great these week, a few stars aside.

5) Jason (last week, 7)

Jason has a dangerous team. He's playing all randos from week to week so there's a chance that they'll either a) do exactly as they are expected (read: nothing), or b) blow up for 27 points. This makes Jason a 100 point threat every game...as well as a 10 point threat. I don't see him winning out three times in the playoffs, but I can see him making the playoffs and making at least one team very sad.

6) Drew (last week, 6)

Drew mostly got unlucky for being the only 80 point scoring team to face someone who wasn't sucking. I still think you got it, Drewski.

7) Kim (last week, 5)

Take out LT and Kim is under 50. Could that trade have done her in? No chance. Her team is so desperately thin, these by weeks are going to crush the life out of her

8) Scott (last week, 8)

Scott keeps putting up points (#3 overall this week) and keeps losing games. Fun fact: did any of you see the score of Scott's game switch overnight from 98-97 Scott to 99-98 Jason? As if it wasn't bad enough he lost, he also had the possibility of victory stolen from him by an angry machine

9) Ryan (last week, 9)

I need to see that two weeks in a row before I believe Ryan's lies.

10) Peter (last week, 10)

Horse.

Week 7 Fearless Predictions

3-2 last week! If only I had seen Ryan Good coming...Also, to be fair, Donel didn't win by 80, so I guess I didn't cover my own spread

Rob (4-2) vs Donel (4-2)

Well, I enjoyed having a brief winning streak! It is ending this week. It's Byweeksville right now, population: me

Donel by 20

Kyle (5-1) vs Jason (3-3)

Jason's only QB is on byweek and he has $0 for free agents. If we each pick up 2 QBs, Jason is fucked! Unfortunately, that is not going to happen...and Kyle is starting Chad Henne

Jason by 10

Travis (4-2) vs Ryan (2-4)

Seeing as how Travis doesn't melt down and lightning doesn't strike twice, I think Ryan's toast

Travis by 12

Drew (2-4) vs Peter (2-4)

Welcome to underachieversville! I still can't bet on Peter.

Drew by 5.

Scott (1-5) vs Kim (3-3)

If there was ever a time to redeem himself, it is nigh.

Scott by 20

One Last Thing

Tune in next week for a special Midseason WNQ breakdown! Also:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8CYHae2BR0&feature=related

Bet ESPN didn't know how quickly this commercial would be out of date