WNQ Week 1: A Very Detailed Draft Analysis and Other Musings

WNQ Week 1: A Very Detailed Draft Analysis and Other Musings

In a certain sense, our Fantasy Football Draft is like Christmas for adults. While mostly an abstract concept for the majority of the year, as it approaches there is an unrelenting sense of anticipation. Though we might spend our free time in hundreds of different ways during eleven months of the year, for the weeks before we are solely focused on what we want for Draft Day. Is it a shiny Adrian Petersen, wrapped in a surgically repaired ACL? Perhaps a stocking full of Patriots WRs?

When the day arrives, we tear into our presents like toddlers, ravenously consuming player after player, always wanting more. And despite all the anticipation, when the draft is finished, there is an emptiness. It could never be as good as we hoped it would be, and even though our bounty was rich, we never get everything that we asked for.

I’ve spent a lot of time over the years looking at the draft strategies of our league in the abstract. I look at general trends of who picks what for how much and make some fairly broad judgments and assumptions. But you all know me. I love statistics, and this is something that has been sorely lacking in my draft analysis. My reasons for this are many, but ultimately it came down to two factors: a lack of a coherent modality by which to compare drafts and a general sense of ennui. However, with the end of my residency (!) and a thorough consideration of how to form this post, I will now start a (hopefully) annual WNQ I call Judging Christmas.

Details, Details, Details

Here’s a short explanation of how this is going to work.

First, I will go through the top picks by position and how much has been paid for them, as well as by who. I’ll also use an index I (and probably others) refer to as RVI – the Relative Value Index. The RVI basically judges the amount of points you’ll be getting per dollar based off 2013 predictions. This cannot really factor in players who over or underperform, but nothing can and it is stupid to try to do so. Any judgment of draft at this point in time is all speculative, but even if someone gets lucky when, say, Lamar Millar blows up, that doesn’t make the draft strategy of spending big bucks on him sound. It just means karma loves you.

In the past, I’ve used a similar metric to this that people found confusing, so I’m going to be clear about what it means. A high RVI means you’re getting a lot of points for very little money, while a low RVI means the opposite. With the idea that spending money in one place takes it away from another, this means that low RVIs NEGATIVELY impact your ability to get quality players in other positions. While it is easy to see how low costs for highly ranked players is a positive, RVI provides a quantification for how much value you are getting for a player, which I find helpful. I should point out that it is NOT helpful alone. If you pay $1 for anyone, the RVI will be through the roof. RVI is helpful at comparing similar, sought-after players, not trash.

During this, I will really only focus on the skill positions (ie, no D/ST, no Kickers), and I’m using the highest drafted/most paid for approach to decipher who your team might be “starting.” I recognize that this is subject to change, but no one drafted Ben Tate and expected him to be their starter…I don’t care what happens during the season. In doing such, my list will only go down as far as the last starting player drafted (example, in QBs, I will extend my list only to Andy Dalton, Travis’ starting QB. Other QBs below him were drafted but that is irrelevant to determining the baseline strength of a team, since no QB2 is contributing any points in theory).

*I say mistakes, but as well all know, there are multiple strategies and a lot of acceptable options in how to draft…and ultimately it doesn’t matter how you draft, just if you win. I’m judging people against expert opinion, so take it or leave it.

The Quarterbacks

Rank	Name	Proj. Pts	Pts / Wk	Bought By	Amount Paid ($)	RVI
1	Aaron Rodgers	352	20.70588235	Dane	47	7.489361702
2	Drew Brees	334	19.64705882	Drew	46	7.260869565
3	Peyton Manning	324	19.05882353	Scott	41	7.902439024
4	Tom Brady	325	19.11764706	Donel	31	10.48387097
5	Cam Newton	323	19	Kim	24	13.45833333
6	Matt Ryan	314	18.47058824	Rob	15	20.93333333
7	Colin Kaepernick	306	18	Kyle	17	18
8	Robert Griffin III	268	15.76470588	Dane*	16	16.75
9	Matthew Stafford	288	16.94117647	Peter	19	15.15789474
10	Russell Wilson	280	16.47058824	Ryan D	15	18.66666667
11	Andrew Luck	280	16.47058824	Donel*	9	31.11111111
12	Tony Romo	284	16.70588235	Ryan G	18	15.77777778
13	Eli Manning	232	13.64705882	Jason	4	58
14	Ben Roesthlisberger	221	13	Kim*	1	221
15	Michael Vick	198	11.64705882	Ryan G*	8	24.75
16	Sam Bradford	206	12.11764706	Jason*	1	206
17	Jay Cutler	200	11.76470588	Kyle*	2	100
18	Joe Flacco	201	11.82352941	Kim*	4	50.25
19	Andy Dalton	210	12.35294118	Travis	1	210

* = Second on depth chart QB

Winners: Kim, Rob

Losers: Peter, Ryan Good

WTF: Dane, Travis

First, let me say that I’m flabbergasted by the fact that I had to go down to 19 in order to find everyone’s starting QB. Let be realistic: picking up a backup QB for more than a couple of bucks is ridiculous. Here’s what Eric Karabell has to say about it…

In a 12-team league, I’m a bit more apt to add one of the quarterbacks ranked in the QB2 range just in case, because if there’s an injury to your reliable starter there’s a lesser player pool to replace him with. Then again, would I be drafting someone we know, like Flacco or Dalton, for that role? Or a higher-upside option, someone who has yet to reach what is frankly an average ceiling? I’d likely go upside, if taking a reserve quarterback at all, because by Halloween there will be several one-week fill-in types such as Matt Schaub out there in free agency, not to mention in-season surprises like Russell Wilson. There always are.

There’s amazing QB depth this year, so the fact that two people picked two QB1s (Dane, Donel) and four others a straight up QB2 (Kim picked up two of there) is crazy.

Look at the points per week column for a minute. This basically determines an average for how many points each of us will get from our QB per week. The differences amongst the top 7 players is about 2 total points. Granted, two is not zero, but it’s a big jump from $47 (the amount paid for Rodgers’ 20.7 points) and $15 (Matt Ryan’s 18.4) or $17 (Kaepernick’s 18). I’m not saying Rodgers is a bad pick, but with so much depth for elite QBs AND for almost-elite (12 QBs with 16+ points per week), it just doesn’t make sense to draft a second QB.

Let’s take Dane as an example. He spent $47 on Aaron Rodgers…and then $16 on RG-III. Tell me, can anyone think of ANY scenario when you wouldn’t start Aaron Rodgers, besides being sidelined by injury? There is literally no matchup in which I wouldn’t take Rodgers. Essentially, Dane paid $16 for a bye week. QBs get injured sometimes, but typically are the most durable players on a team; it makes more sense to handcuff a RB. If anyone is going to be injured this season, it’s RG-III. Dumb move.

Ditto for Donel. Luck starts over Brady zero times. When I see someone spend big (or semi-big) money on a backup QB they’ll never play, I just add that total to how much they spent on their starter, because its like you’re pissing it away. Brady at $31 was a steal for Donel. At $40 (adding the $9 he spent on Luck), it’s just a pickup at cost, essentially.

I talked before about how minor a 1-2 points difference per week can be. 6-8 points is a whole other ballgame, and that is where we find Travis (Andy Dalton) and Jason (Eli Manning). I know what went wrong here. Both Travis and Jason are very logical managers with a history of excellence. They employed a draft strategy I have employed nearly every year in the past: when the top QBs are off the board, save money for RBs/WRs and get a lower tier QB1. This year it’s a smart play, since QBs 8-12 are all essentially identical. Where Jason and Travis went wrong is overestimating our league’s intelligence about the QB situation. We’re coming off a year where there were a few elite QBs and then a large drop off. Well-read managers knew this year was different. TMR says it better than I ever could, so here:

This season, we no longer have to wonder if Peyton Manning can successfully come back from neck surgery, if Cam Newton was a fluke, or if young running quarterbacks like Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick can play in the NFL. Add a very successful rookie campaign for Andrew Luck and Matt Ryan taking another step forward and you've got unbelievable depth at the position, and that's before you even get to Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo or Ben Roethlisberger, all of whom averaged 16 fantasy points per game last year. In fact, 10 different quarterbacks averaged 17 or so fantasy points per game last year. Two more averaged around 16 and No. 13, Andy Dalton, averaged 14.9. Seven others averaged 14 points a game. The quarterback position is the deepest I've ever seen it for fantasy purposes.

Travis and Jason learned the lesson I have learned many, many times: our league drafts erratically. I could put a mountain of evidence down about the benefits of picking up more RB2s/3s and people would still get in bidding wars for a backup QB. Why people, why? This is the reason I ended up with Tim Tebow for back to back seasons, and the reason Travis has Andy Dalton.

Now to the clearer winners and losers. I think everyone can agree that Matt Ryan for $15 is a steal. I don’t credit myself for this. It all ended up a timing issue. The Top 5 QBs were off the board, the best RBs had been had, and we were in the midst of a run on WRs. Since I hadn’t burned any money on a QB, I picked up three top 30(ish) receivers for about $60 total. Most everyone else had 0-1 WR and there was a mad rush to get the best available. When Matt Ryan came up, everyone else was trying to fill out their WR (and in a few cases, their RB) spots and were not looking for a QB. So he went up and I was largely unchallenged. If he had been nominated twenty spots later he would have hit mid-20s, since that is when the QB panic started to set in. I got lucky.

I hesitate to call Kim a winner because she picked up three QBs. But she paid $17 less for Cam Newton than Scott paid for Peyton Manning, who are projected to be FF equivalents this year. Again, timing was an issue; instead of during the WR rush, Cam Newton went up during the RB rush and the rest of us were waiting for our chance at Giovani Bernard. Also, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were still on the board, so the people waiting to get a top QB passed.

It’s hard for me to call Peter and Ryan Good losers, since, really, Travis and Jason are the big losers of the QB sweepstakes. But in terms of draft value, they had a similar problem. As I mentioned before, QBs 8-12 are, statistically, identical. They’re all within one FF point per week of each other—half a point if you take out the outlier, RGIII. Yet somehow Ryan Davis and Donel managed to get QBs from this block at an RVI of 31 and 18, respectively, while Ryan Good and Peter only hit 15. This, in short, means they overpaid. Ryan Good’s was a desperation issue; Romo was the last man standing, so to speak, and he knew he was in a hurt locker if he let him slip away. Peter, I must presume, reads a lot of TMR and believes he’ll progress back to the mean. Either way, there were better values available.

The Running Backs

Rank	Name	Proj. Pts	Pts / Wk	Bought By	Amount Paid ($)	RVI
1	Adrian Peterson	279	16.41176471	Peter	66	4.227272727
2	Arian Foster	261	15.35294118	Ryan D	59	4.423728814
3	Marshawn Lynch	233	13.70588235	Kim	60	3.883333333
4	Ray Rice	232	13.64705882	Donel	59	3.93220339
5	Doug Martin	226	13.29411765	Ryan G	53	4.264150943
6	Jamaal Charles	228	13.41176471	Ryan D	53	4.301886792
7	CJ Spiller	227	13.35294118	Dane	50	4.54
8	Trent Richardson	226	13.29411765	Rob	50	4.52
9	Alfred Morris	219	12.88235294	Drew	53	4.132075472
10	LeSean McCoy	200	11.76470588	Kyle	49	4.081632653
11	Steven Jackson	192	11.29411765	Jason	45	4.266666667
12	Matt Forte	182	10.70588235	Travis	41	4.43902439
13	Stevan Ridley	181	10.64705882	Ryan G	41	4.414634146
14	Frank Gore	178	10.47058824	Peter	36	4.944444444
15	Chris Johnson	172	10.11764706	Travis	38	4.526315789
16	Maurice JonesDrew	172	10.11764706	Jason	40	4.3
17	David Wilson	164	9.647058824	Scott	31	5.290322581
18	Darren McFadden	168	9.882352941	Kyle	22	7.636363636
19	Eddie Lacy	159	9.352941176	Dane	30	5.3
20	DeMarco Murray	151	8.882352941	Donel	19	7.947368421
21	Darren Sproles	154	9.058823529	Rob	14	11
22	Reggie Bush	161	9.470588235	Scott	24	6.708333333
23	Lamar Miller	154	9.058823529	Scott (F)	32	4.8125
24	Montee Ball	142	8.352941176	Peter (F)	21	6.761904762
25	Chris Ivory	128	7.529411765	Scott*	13	9.846153846
26	Ryan Mathews	140	8.235294118	Drew	14	10
27	Ahmad Bradshaw	128	7.529411765	Kim	17	7.529411765
28	DeAngelo Williams	128	7.529411765	Travis*	12	10.66666667
29	Giovani Bernard	129	7.588235294	Travis	25	5.16
30	BenJarvus GreenEllis	127	7.470588235	Kyle (F)	10	12.7
31	Rashard Mendenhall	133	7.823529412	Kim*	10	13.3
32	Shane Vereen	128	7.529411765	Rob*	6	21.33333333
33	Daryl Richardson	130	7.647058824	Jason	25	5.2
34	Vick Ballard	106	6.235294118	Kim	13	8.153846154
35	Andre Brown	113	6.647058824	Rob*	10	11.3
36	Mark Ingram	103	6.058823529	Drew*	8	12.875
37	Isaiah Pead	75	4.411764706	Kim*	2	37.5
38	Le'Veon Bell	76	4.470588235	Ryan D*	6	12.66666667
53	Mike Tolbert	81	4.764705882	Dane (F)	1	81

F = predicted Flex starter based on value

* = Bench RB based on value

Winning Decisions: Peter (Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore), Dane (CJ Spiller) Rob (Trent Richardson, Darren Sproles, Shane Vereen), Drew (Ryan Mathews)

Bad Decisions: Kim (Marshawn Lynch), Donel (Ray Rice), Scott (David Wilson, Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller)

WTF: Travis (Giovani Bernard), Jason (Daryl Richardson), Dane (Mike Tolbert)

This chart is a little bit harder to interpret, so let me explain a bit before I get into the analysis.

RBs 1-16 on this list are what I’d call solid RB1s. Not all of these RBs are created equal (given the six point different between AP at #1 and MJD at #16, we can all likely agree on this), but they are all put up or shut up players that we expect big money to be shelled out for. Since the overall amount of points scored by an RB is lower than QBs, the RVI needed to designate good value is lower. Generally speaking, an RVI less than 4 for an RB1 is considered a “poor value” pick, while an RVI approaching 5 (and, generally, higher than 4.5) is considered a “good value” pick. Between 4 and 4.5 is considered an average pickup based on value.

RBs 17-24, as well as 26, are RB2s. The money spent on RB2s is disproportionately less compared to RB1s, despite the fact that, in some circumstances, their overall point value is nearly identical. They are all expected to score about 8 points per game or more. Because the spending on these RBs drops so dramatically, a “good value” pick has an RVI of 10 or more, while a poor value pick sits below 5. Since the range is larger, an RVI in the 5-7 range is still pretty poor, while 8-10 is still pretty good.

RBs 25 and 27-36 are RB3s/Good Flex Options. They all sit at 6-7 points per week and represent the third tier of RBs. They are decent flex options. An RVI below 10 generally represents a “poor value” pick, while an RVI above 20 represents a “good value” pick, with an appropriate gradation in between.

All other RBs are Prize Claw RBs. They are below 5 points per week and generally poor choices to start at any point in time (based on pre-season value). A few of these RBs will be elevated to starting status, but the majority of them will be trash the entire season. They’re like the stuffed animals in the Prize Claw machines you see at super markets. Drop the claw down and select one at random. You might get that awesome NFL replica football with Tom Brady’s face on it, but you’re probably going to pick up some moldy stuffed snake.

Now, on with the show.

While I will maintain that Peter sucks at everything, I am extremely impressed at his RB selection. While no one would call AP a steal at $66, he is in fact a bargain given the fact that Marshawn Lynch and Ray Rice were taken at $6 and $7 less, despite the fact that AP is predicted to put up 3 more points per week. Frank Gore is the real prize in my eyes, though. Peter not only got a second RB1, but Gore had the highest RVI of any projected RB1 at 4.94. RBs are expensive and hard to come by, but somehow Peter managed to get two bargains.

Dane, other the other hand, is a split decision for me. He did manage to get CJ Spiller for $50 and an RVI of 4.54, the highest of any of the Elite RB1s (defined by 13+ points per week). This was smart money for a possibly top-5 RB when all is said and done. However, Dane also managed to end up with a final lineup that includes Mike Tolbert as his best Flex option. Mike Tolbert! He’s a full 19 positions lower than the next projected starting RB on the board. As you’ll notice on the chart I had to skip a huge amount of players to even get to him, mostly because of general ennui. Dane budgeting = poor.

To continue my praise of myself, I would like to pat myself on the back and applaud my frugal, smart decision making on the RB side. I ended up with an RB1 (Richardson) whom I got for the second best RVI amongst Elites. My RB2, Darren Sproles, had an RVI of 11, the best for RB2s (even though I hate Darren Sproles, this was a bargain on paper. I am sure I will live to regret it). Finally, I’d like to point out how ridiculous it is that Shane Vereen went to me for $6. He is predicted to put up about 7.5 points per game. You know who else is project to put up that amount? Ahmad Bradshaw (sold for $17), Giovani Bernard (sold for $25), and Daryl Richardson (also for $25). I’m not actually saying these players will pan out, but you can’t argue that I got them for a steal. The value is really only impressive because both Travis and Jason had WTF moments with their Flex pickups. I recognize the early hype surrounding these players (perhaps Bernard >>> Richardson), but 9 players ranked above Bernard went for less; 12 players above Richardson did.

I also but give credit where credit is due to Drew for his Ryan Mathews pickup. An 8.2 pt/wk RB at $14 doesn’t seem like a great deal until you realize players like Eddie Lacy were going to Dane for more than double in order to get 1 more point per week. Shame, Dane. Shame.

General Boos go to Donel and Kim, who both demonstrated poor money management with their pick-ups of Marshawn Lynch and Ray Rice. It is relatively easy to get caught up in the swing of early purchases, especially when your budget seems infinite and other players (Peterson, Foster) are going for similar amounts. What’s important to note, however, is that the drop off from Foster (the #2 overall RB) to Lynch and Rice (#3 and #4 respectively) is almost 2 points per week. When Arian Foster goes for $59, it does not make sense to pay the same amount for players that have such a large talent gap! These draft choices smell of desperation and, in Kim’s case especially, blind homer-ism.

In my humble opinion, the biggest overall loser of the RB draft is Scott. He made a critical error in missing the run on RB1s and ended up in a desperate RB conundrum early. He did what any owner in his situation needs to do: stock up on RB2s. While I can’t fault him on this (would anyone else not try to snatch up all possible RBs with upside?), he ended up with poor overall RB value that seemed to hang over him the rest of the draft, where his lack of funds let to some questionable pick ups.

Scott paid $31 for David Wilson (RVI 5.29), $24 for Reggie Bush (RVI 6.71), and $32 for Lamar Miller (RVI 4.81). These are 3 of the 4 lowest RVIs from the RB2 group, with only Dane’s Eddie Lacy (RVI 5.3) as lowly valued. How did this happen?

Let’s break it down.  Scott was the last manager to successfully draft a player, starting with Blair Walsh (K) are 24. Remember, while we occasionally go crazy and throw out kickers early, generally speaking all of the top RBs (and the elite WR/QB/TE) are off the board before the second round. So with Scott failing to progressed out of the official second round with anyone other than a kicker, he, by definition, failed to get any players at the highest tier.

He finally picked up David Wilson at pick 25. $31 did not seem like much, since LeSean McCoy had gone for $49 three picks earlier (in between? Two more kickers). Scott heard the footsteps of all the RBs being gobbled away and went big. While I’m not saying $49 for McCoy was a good deal, he’s worth more than two more points per game than Wilson, and still on the board were Gore, Chris Johnson, and essentially seven other players who were FF equivalents to Wilson, and all of whom went for less. This pick’s problem: panic.

By the time Reggie Bush came around at pick 49, a run on RB2s had already started, and many top WRs were coming off the board. This put the remaining RB2s at a premium and Scott decided to wade back into the pool at exactly the wrong time. Also, I’m sure Scott’s homer nature got the best of him, and he simply had to have Reggie Bush.

The Lamar Miller pick I find a little more puzzling. In no world do I see Lamar Miller being worth $32. This move was pure desperation. Already frustrated with two sub-par starters, Scott knew he needed more quality RBs. He picked up Chris Ivory cheaply. A general panic formed around the mid fifties when 5 top WRs and the last remains of the RBs were gobbled up. Lamar Miller was kind of the last man standing for reasonable RB options, and Scott knew he needed him. Scott is kind of a magnet for bidding wars, and when people began to fight him for it, he knew he had to stick it out.

Scott spent $110 on RBs. And they’re all terrible.

The Wide Receivers

Rank	Name	Proj. Pts	Pts / Wk	Bought By	Amount Paid ($)	RVI
1	Calvin Johnson	236	13.88235294	Jason	45	5.244444444
2	AJ Green	201	11.82352941	Kyle	44	4.568181818
3	Dez Bryant	202	11.88235294	Kim	40	5.05
4	Brandon Marshall	196	11.52941176	Travis	35	5.6
5	Julio Jones	186	10.94117647	Dane	34	5.470588235
6	Demayrius Thomas	180	10.58823529	Drew	34	5.294117647
7	Roddy White	177	10.41176471	Rob	27	6.555555556
8	Vincent Jackson	175	10.29411765	Rob	24	7.291666667
9	Andre Johnson	177	10.41176471	Donel	31	5.709677419
10	Randall Cobb	171	10.05882353	Jason	27	6.333333333
11	Larry Fitzgerald	167	9.823529412	Kyle	28	5.964285714
12	Wes Welker	154	9.058823529	Rob (F)	19	8.105263158
13	Victor Cruz	152	8.941176471	Peter	20	7.6
14	Marques Colston	150	8.823529412	Ryan D	18	8.333333333
15	Reggie Wayne	149	8.764705882	Ryan D	19	7.842105263
16	Mike Wallace	154	9.058823529	Scott	19	8.105263158
17	Danny Amendola	115	6.764705882	Drew (F)	15	7.666666667
18	Hakeem Nicks	124	7.294117647	Drew	18	6.888888889
19	Steve Smith	137	8.058823529	Travis	11	12.45454545
20	Eric Decker	134	7.882352941	Peter	15	8.933333333
21	Dwayne Bowe	132	7.764705882	Ryan G	20	6.6
22	James Jones	146	8.588235294	Kim	16	9.125
23	Antonio Brown	134	7.882352941	Ryan G	13	10.30769231
24	Jordy Nelson	134	7.882352941	Peter*	9	14.88888889
25	Pierre Garcon	123	7.235294118	Donel	11	11.18181818
26	Cecil Shorts	131	7.705882353	Ryan G	6	21.83333333
27	DeSean Jackson	130	7.647058824	Donel*	6	21.66666667
28	Torrey Smith	138	8.117647059	Donel	12	11.5
29	Greg Jennings	122	7.176470588	Ryan D (F)	8	15.25
30	Tavon Austin	119	7	Scott	8	14.875
42	Josh Gordon	118	6.941176471	Dane	7	16.85714286

F = predicted Flex starter based on value

* = Bench WR based on value

Winners: Rob (Roddy White [ankle not withstanding], Vincent Jackson, Wes Welker], Jason (Calvin Johnson), Travis (Steve Smith), Peter (Jordy Nelson), Ryan Good (Cecil Shorts), Donel (DeSean Jackson, to a lesser extent Pierre Garcon)

Losers: Ryan Good (Dwayne Bowe, Antonio Brown)

WTF: Dane (Josh Gordon)

Speaking of difficult to interpret charts, this is just about the most complicated. Since the majority of the WRs (after the top 10 or so) are functionally equivalent, it’s kind of a judgment call as to who is better or worse. The official numbered ranking seems irrelevant, especially when players like Amendola (ranked #17) have lower predicted points than Josh Gordon (predicted #42). For WRs, it’s easier to compare based on the physical amount paid, though RVI can give some info.

Consider WR1s Calvin Johnson down through Larry Fitzgerald; there is almost a one point drop off afterwards into the WR2s/3s, who all functional relatively equivalently. WRs are so spotty that minute differences in scoring potential matters very little.

In regards to how to compare the RVI, the number itself is unimportant. What matters is how is stacks up to similar players. 0.06 points per week separate #19 Steve Smith and #28 Torrey Smith, which for our purposes in zero. For them and all the players scattered between, their RVI only matters in the context of the value of others.

Before anyone eviscerates me for this, I’d like to point out that the WRs, more than anyone else, are a subjective judgment. They are far less consistent than QBs and RBs and there is a lot more variability in how they will perform compared to their predicted points. This leaves more wiggle room for bidding on a “feeling” that a player will do well. I think this is a valuable option (since more of them have similar predictions, anyway), but I can’t judge it. I’m judging based solely on predicted stats, which gives a basis for how well or poorly a team drafted.

I will continue to toot my own horn on my WR corps; three in the top 12, two easy WR1s and a WR1.5 in Wes Welker. Roddy White and Vincent Jackson had the highest RVI of all WR1s taken. This draft, which I think, objectively, went fairly well for me, will provide a good example for how numbers don’t tell the whole story when I am mercilessly crushed throughout the season.

I left off one thing when speaking about WR1s. There is no Elite WR1 category, only one Elite WR1: Calvin Johnson. He’s predicted to get 2 more points per week than any other WR, and his consistency, coupled with the overall inconsistency of WRs, is amazing. The fact that Jason spent only one dollar more for him than Kyle spent on AJ Green is astonishing. CJ was the first man off the board this year, and clearly no one was ready to start bidding on WRs. Jason got quite the deal.

I mentioned above the logjam of middling, average WRs. If you look closely from all received after Mike Wallace, their points per week are very similarly, all within 2 points and mostly within 1, with a couple of outliers. These WRs are really all about feel, and are all, from a pure statistics standpoint, equivalent. So this is where we see who shops for smart bargains and who pays big for the unpredictable: who will blow up this year. Travis (Steve Smith, $11/12.45), Peter (Jordy Nelson, $9/14.88), Ryan Good (Cecil Shorts, $6/21.83) and Donel (DeSean Jackson, $6/21.66 > Pierre Garcon $11/11.18) managed to find WRs from this line of identical robots at low cost. On the flip side, Ryan Good’s other two selections, Dwayne Bowe ($20/6.6) and Antonio Brown ($13/10.3) were bad deals. Bowe, specifically, is troubling. Without any inside knowledge into how Ryan thinks, I have to presume he was bidding on name; Dwayne Bowe has had elite seasons in the past, though his stock is certainly on the downswing. The midranger high 8 to 9 points per weak players (Wes Welker, Victor Cruz, etc) were going for this amount or less. Ryan Good spending $20 for Dwayne Bowe was a desperation move. He had missed the rush of WRs and was stuck at pick 64 with no WRs on his roster. He saw a name he recognized and overbid, simple as that.

Dane, Dane, Dane. Dane’s drastic overspending in other positions led to the mighty Josh Gordon being his WR2, costing him $7. He didn’t manage to pick him up until pick 85, when most of the quality WRs had already been gobbled up. Dane just did not budget his money well this year. Remember, he spent $63 dollars on Aaron Rodgers ($47 + $16 for RGIII who will never play), $50 for CJ Spiller (not a bad pickup), and $30 on Eddie lacy (a bad pickup). That’s $143 for three players. He then went big for a WR1 (#34 for Julio Jones), essentially leaving him nothing for the rest of his team. If Dane has some of his unknowns breakout, he could have a good season. But I sense a flameout. But who knows, Cordarelle Patterson and Bilal Powell could prove me wrong

The Tight Ends

Rank	Name	Proj. Pts	Pts / Wk	Bought By	Amount Paid ($)	RVI
1	Jimmy Graham	174	10.23529412	Ryan G	26	6.692307692
2	Rob Gronkowski	173	10.17647059	Travis	15	11.53333333
3	Tony Gonzalez	133	7.823529412	Kyle	11	12.09090909
4	Jason Witten	123	7.235294118	Rob	9	13.66666667
5	Vernon Davis	114	6.705882353	Donel	10	11.4
6	Kyle Rudolph	98	5.764705882	Ryan D	6	16.33333333
7	Owen Daniels	98	5.764705882	Dane	4	24.5
8	Greg Olsen	102	6	Scott	3	34
9	Antonio Gates	99	5.823529412	Donel*	3	33
10	Brandon Myers	98	5.764705882	Jason	2	49
11	Jared Cook	94	5.529411765	Ryan D*	3	31.33333333
12	Jermichael Finley	98	5.764705882	Donel*	4	24.5
13	Martellus Bennett	93	5.470588235	Peter	1	93
14	Brandon Pettigrew	82	4.823529412	Drew	2	41
15	Fred Davis	78	4.588235294	Kim	2	39

* = Bench TE based on value

This is much easier to interpret, so it’ll be short, I promise. There are two elite TEs, Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. Now, we are all familiar with Gronk’s injuries, so I understand the trepidation in drafting him. But based on pure value, they’re functionally equivalent. The $11 excess paid for Jimmy Graham compared to Gronk means Travis got quite the deal…assuming his arm doesn’t disintegrate midplay, of which there is a >7% probability.

TEs 3-5 are the sub-Elite. They all are within 6.7-7.8 points per week; a big step down from the elite but a full point per week more than the rest of ‘em. Essentially all three of them went for the same price (from $9-$11), so there aren’t really any winners or losers.

TE 6-13 are the rest of the TE1s. They all are within half a point of each other, and very much functionally equivalent. With this in mind, Ryan Davis got the worst deal, paying $6 for Kyle Rudolph. This is a theme in our league; the first person to take a player from the first ‘tier’ of any position typically overpays, because he/she is comparing that player cost to the cost of the last player in the tier above. It’s a word of caution to everyone picking up a player right after all of the best options have gone. People start to panic, and they overbid. Fight the power. In this same fashion, Peter got the best deal by taking the last of the top tier, Martelluss Bennet, for $1.

Most owners were probably operating under the (mistaken) assumption that they would certainly end up with one of the top 13 TEs, right? What Drew and Kim could not have predicted was than Ryan Davis would draft two TEs, and Donel would taking a whopping three of the top twelve. This is borderline ludicrous. We have a one playable TE league, with one flex spot. There is almost never value in playing a second TE in the flex because, unless you have Graham and Gronk, the TE will never match up to any average WR/RB. While TEs can have injuries, I’m not sure of the value of drafting three TEs who are more or less the same. It’s like Donely paid $17 for Vernon Davis. Listen to TMR, for a sec:

Let's turn once again to Tristan Cockcroft's Consistency Rankings. Now the idea of his consistency rankings is, well, consistency. Again, we play the game over the course of a year but truthfully, it's actually 13 weekly games and then the playoffs. So how many of those weeks was a particular player worth starting? Under Tristan's system, a tight end was considered a "start" if his point total made him top 10 at his position. And the third-most consistent tight end last year was the Vikings' Kyle Rudolph, who finished the year as the ninth-highest-scoring tight end.

Now, Tristan also gives out a "stiff" rating, defined as the number of weeks a player's point total ranked among the worst at his position. In other words, since his article is about week-to-week consistency, what top-10 tight end had the most weeks in which he was brutal, the most weeks in which you would have been better starting pretty much anyone else off the waiver wire? Kyle Rudolph, with seven such games. In fact, Rudolph had four different games with zero, count 'em, zero fantasy points. Might as well have left him on your bench and started me instead.

Think about that. The third-most consistent tight end last year was also a guy who was among the worst at his position in half the weeks. It's inconceivable! And while I'm not sure that word means what I think it means, and I also think this was a bit of a stretch to fit in this particular reference, it does illustrate my take on tight end this year; Jimmy Graham is a stud. Rob Gronkowski is a stud but obviously has health. Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten are very solid, if unspectacular. And after that, they're all the same. Oh, there are guys I like more than others -- I'm a big Dennis Pitta believer this year -- but really, after those four, it's just a bunch of Kyle Rudolphs. They'll be great some weeks, disappear in others, and it's really a weekly guessing/hoping game that they find the end zone that week.

I’m guessing Donel got three TEs because he knows its just a guessing game and that he plans on keeping his options open. But this only triples the fury when you pick the wrong one. And all that money he spent on TEs could have helped him get a better WR2 than Torrey Smith. WTF Donel?

Now For Something Completely Different: PauseGate

Fantasy Football is always made better by a scandal. Remember DefenseGate? Jason forgot to pick up a D/ST and petitioned the league to allow him to pick one up when the wire was already closed. He was denied, and he ended up losing a close game. This season, we’re faced with another of many Jason scandals: PauseGate.

The draft was moving along as it always does. It was 9:52 pm and we were in the middle position doldrums; everyone who was anyone was off the board, and now we were all looking for deep sleepers/whoever our draft resource of choice told us might blow up this year. Suddenly, I get this text from Jason:

Jason: “Internet broken pause please!!!!”

I considered ignoring it just because of the excessive punctuation (my personal pet peeve. The only thing worse are smiley faces), but then responded back:

Rob: “There’s no pause button!”

I figured that was that. Besides, Everybody Hates Jason, so this was kind of a plus.

However, my eyes began to wander across the draft page. When I logged into the draft (an hour early, as is my ritual), I had noticed a tab at the top of the page labeled “LM Tools.” There’s a similar tab that comes up on just about every page of my ESPN League View, so I didn’t think much of it. When Jason asked me to pause, though, it made me curious. I clicked on it.

The page basically presented three options: “Remove previous selection,” “Change value of previous selection,” and “Pause.”

Well, shit. I texted Jason back:

Rob: oh wait there is. Where are you?

Jason: Restarting my internet

I pondered over whether it would be more fair to bring it to a vote first, thus letting the draft continue and essentially screwing Jason regardless of the outcome, or simply pausing it and bringing it to a vote. I chose the latter. Here is what happened:

Rob: Jason says his Internet is broken.

(Draft paused) (9:54 pm)

Travis: eye of the Jew? [of course a reference to the 2006 classic, Beerfest, where a wily Jew proved he could out drink the Germans]

Travis: what is happening?

Peter: you can't pause the draft [fun fact: I can. Who knew?]

Rob: Jason requested a pause

Drew: what happened?

Ryan Davis: who paused it?

Ryan Davis: that's crap

Kyle: you can't triple stamp a double stamp [I have no idea why this applies, but I approve all Dumb and Dumber references]

Travis: piss break?

Donel: wait we have to vote on this right? [I curse the day I made this league a democracy. In all seriousness, though, I’m still not sure what the right move to make was.]

Ryan Good: boooooooo

Ryan Good: this is bullshit

Rob: do you guys not want to honor his pause? I can put it back on

Donel: boooo

Ryan Good: yea no pause

Donel: boooo Rob

Rob: if I get six nays the draft is back on

Peter: Bolshevik [somehow, pausing the draft made me a communist. The logic is unclear, but I love it. I will steal this insult]

Travis: how long does he get?

Ryan Good: that is lame

Ryan Davis: put it back on this is bs

Ryan Good; harrumph [after Bolshevik, this was my second favorite overall comment. No simple and so Ryan Good]

Scott: WTF mate?

Jason Feuerman has left the draft (9:56 pm) [interestingly, Jason remained in the draft for like 2-3 minutes after being disconnected]

Kyle: how do you pause?

Rob: ill take that as six nos... [for reference, I was counting Ryan Davis, Donel, Ryan Good, Scott, Peter, and myself. I couldn't tell if Kyle and Travis were for or against the pause]

(Draft restarted) [At this point, I texted Jason that “Managers overturned your pause,” to which he responded, “bs!!” Gratuitous punctuation.]

Travis: I've literally been sprinting to pee

Drew: I bring the MacBook in with me

Ryan Good: I peed holding my laptop [I didn't pee once during the draft. Y'all have female bladders, clearly]

Rob: it's kind of unprecedented. I've never had anyone request a pause

(A player, whom I can’t remember, came up to be drafted. I made a bid, and Jason’s autodraft countered)

Rob: ill let computer Jason have him

Peter: Computer Jason doesn't have much room to work

Scott: last starting RB?

Jason Feuerman has joined the draft (9:58 pm)

Jason: YOU ALL SUCK

Ryan Good: It was unanimous [was it?]

Travis: or is he?

Ryan Good: that is spelled wrong but you get the point [it wasn’t]

Rob: I've never seen such an uprising

Rob: someone call me a Bolshevik. [this clearly stuck with me]

Kyle: that will go down in history as the draft Jason fucking paused [this is 100% true. It's like WNQ material for years]

Scott: it escalated quickly [no shit. The entire thing lasted 6 minutes from disconnect to reconnect]

Rob: this will have to be a proposed amendment

Peter: if your team sucks just blame it on the pause

Peter: boycott the season

Ryan Davis: I boycott this season. I refuse to check my team from this day forward

Peter: Bye Week [i hope other people besides me got this reference]

Ryan Good: well that's no change

Rob: so it'll be like the first time you played

Jason: I ran down to the apartment common area and almost knocked over a 75 year old

Peter: out of the league

Kyle: screw him

Jason: and you overturned my pause

Peter: I told you this would happen rob [since all of you have the full transcription of this conversation, perhaps you can clarify...what did Peter tell me would happen? I haven’t been able to figure it out]

Ryan Good: he is the champ - maybe he should get a pause...

Kyle: I propose one pause for the champ

Jason: I don't fucking need it anymore

Kyle: in the future

Rob: I like how y'all are nice to Jason's face

Rob: and were furious when it was paused

Ryan Good: haha

Ryan Good: Jason is always the center of controversy

Kyle: I've never seen such commentary

Rob: Jewish Malificent!

All in all, a great catfight. I hope everyone realizes this will just give Jason’s eternal fantasy football fire fuel to crush us over and over.

And that’s it for the week. I simply can’t go on any long. You’ll be hearing more from me soon(ish).

Love,

The Commissioner