Thursday, September 19, 2013

WNQ Week 3: The Fall of Travis, Dane Stands Alone, and Other Stories


Oh, woe is me.

I know what you’re saying. “Woe my ass, 2-0 punk ass bitch.” It’s true. What do I really have to complain about? Despite an underwhelming Week 2 (more on that later), I’ve for the luxury of being 2-0, which, in our unpredictable, topsy-turvy league, is nothing to complain about. But I will complain, and I will woe. Because my RB1 just got traded.

I ask the lot of you to tell me: do you remember a time when such a high profile fantasy player was traded midseason? I certainly cannot. I’m not even sure I was entirely aware that trades happened during the season itself.  There’s actually a 2008 ESPN article about the lack of NFL trades that itself asks the question as to why more do not occur. In case you are wondering, the article doesn’t answer the question.

So what is a fantasy owner to do? I’ll admit, Trent Richardson as a Colt is 1000x better than Trent Richardson as a Brown. I was already violating my own rule of Never-Start-Cleveland-Offensive-Players-Ever by drafting him, and he has constantly been giving me headaches due to his underperformance. While he might end up just not being that great, he’s much greater in Indianapolis than in Cleveland. The question that vexes me, however, is more immediate: will he be greater this week? On three days notice?

Sigh. Woe is me.

Quick Takeaways: Week 2

Rob (84.1) vs Kyle (62.9)

As I said before, you can’t complain about 2-0, even when the winning team (me) has only the 9th highest score of the week. Credit Matt Ryan’s 23 points for me with helping…except if you reduced that number to “3” I would have still won. The real credit for this goes to Kyle, who manages anemic contributions across the board, including a fantastic -1 from his kicker. Now that’s a record.

Ryan/B (114.2) vs Scott (94)

Another week, another pretty decent performance by Scott that ends in a loss. I haven’t been shy in my opinions of his RBs, and while Lamar Miller played “better” (he didn’t have much room to get worse), David Wilson laid a big old egg labeled “1.7,” and Reggie Bush came back to earth. The biggest problem is that Scott doesn’t have much else on his bench, RB wise, that could help him, either…unless you’re in love with Chris Ivory. He does have three tight ends, though! Because that’s what every team needs.

Peter (111) vs Ryan/A (78.9)

I’m beginning to question whether my Ryan/A and /B categorization switch last year was premature. Ryan/B is coming off of a rebound win after his disastrous week of honeymoon ennui, while Ryan/A looks pretty abysmal. Red Ryan has four RBs on his roster. On the positive side, two of these players are Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster, both of whom are playing good not amazing. On the negative side, he’s got them backed up with LeVeon Bell and Mikel Leshoure, who combined for a stellar zero points last week. Ryan/A is one ACL tear away from total collapse. Things are looking ugly in Gingerville. Peter continues to impress, though I still hate him.

Dane (114.8) vs. Jewish Malificent  (88.9)

I maintain that Dane’s team is unbalanced, top heavy, and will be subject to total collapse if any of his key starters suffer the big one. I’m not positive what ‘the big one’ refers to in this analogy, but I’m going to go with “Peyton-Manning-level-C-spine-injury.” That being said, he is playing pretty darn well with what he has. Aaron Rodgers continues to put both A and a in Amazing. I must point out (and will continue to point out) that RGIII continues to be the most expensive unnecessary backup ever. Jason, meanwhile, has built a team on the back of a couple of WRs and a sea of marginal QBs. In an odd twist of fate, his bench outscored his team by 0.1 points this week.

Kim (108.1) vs. WASPs (91.7)

What wrath have I brought to the House of Langley? A mere two weeks after predicting this to be the Worst Season Ever for our Gentleman of Southern Society™, he is 0-2 and just suffered a loss to Kim—perhaps the biggest indignity imaginable.  It’s not that his team is awful, it is simply…disappointing. Where to start? Is it the use of Carson Palmer vs. Andy Dalton as a QB1 (paging Dr. Langley, RGIII paging Dr. Langley on line Trade-Me)? The lineup of consistently underachieving RBs (tell me any of you love Matt Forte and Chris Johnson. I dare you)? Or the young RBs fighting for playing time? Travis: you may say that things will look up when Le Gronk returns, but I’m not so sure. Footnote: Kim, damn. Three players under 1 point and you still manage 108 points? With three bench players with 9 or more points (non-QB). Damn.

Donel (92.5) vs Drew (terrible)

From Week 1 to Week 2, Drew somehow managed to hemorrhage 40 points from his total score, and suddenly looks like the worst team in the league. To the chalkboard! Let us analyze zee data!

To start off, Drew had the unfortunate luck of having his players generally underachieve (it happens to the best of us, buddy). Drew Brees was down 8 points from 20.5 last week, and his kicker manage a mighty zero points. But there are some deeper problems. First, Drew’s RBs have simply been underperforming. I don’t imagine Alfred Morris will continue to be this…mediocre, but he’s not looking as l33t as he was last year. In regard to the other options Drew is facing, I don’t think many people get jazzed bout Ryan Mathews, Mark Ingram, Danny Woodhead, or (shudder) Donald Brown. Last week Drew coasted on his WRs, but as we all know, WRs are not to be trusted, and in a down week he suffered. As a sidenote, his tight ends suck balls. Congrats to Donel for a bit of a rebound week, but let’s not get too excited: five out of the seven people on Donel’s bench would have been better choices for starter than the men he fielded. While this can’t be considered his fault (I wouldn’t start Luck over Brady), it bodes ill if this trend continues.

Don’t Cry For Me, Scott and Jason (The Truth is, I Never Left You)

We are currently sitting in a very well-distributed league. We have four undefeated team, four winless teams, and four who have split. This will end this week, as no undefeated teams play each other, but all of the bottom feeders find themselves in a face off to ascend from last place.

I have some thoughts on these loser teams, and it’s not all negative: I believe Jason and Scott are, at this point, ultimately fine.

Now, I realize 0-2 is never a spot where anyone wants to be. However, lets look at the PF, which is a better indicator of how good a team will be in the long run than a early season record. Both Scott and Jason are averaging above the coveted 94 points per game threshold that predicts a 95% chance of a postseason berth. Combined with the undefeateds (myself, Donel, Dane, and Peter) and Kyle, only seve teams are currently above this marker, and thus look to be the, theoretically, strongest teams in the league. Jason and Scott have had 239.5 and 231.3 points scored against them, respectively, and it is unreasonable to assume such numbers will continue (though not impossible. See: every season Peter played from 2008-2011). As things average out, they should rise to the top.

Who should worry? I worry about Drew, because he has the league’s worst PF. I’m willing to chalk this up to aberrant data from a small sample size, and give him a pass for now. My biggest concerns beyond that, then, are Team WASP, and Ryan/A.

Let’s be frank. Both Travis and Ryan Davis have had a ton of points scored against them (with Ryan/A leading the way with 256.9 PA). However, unlike their counterparts in the Losers’ Sweepstakes, they haven’t proved they’d be able to put up the points to match just about anyone. Their offenses have been surprisingly anemic, and in the absence of a quick turn around, they are threatening to be the worst teams in the league. Luckily, one of them will manage a win this week, as they play each other in the Worst Game of the Week.
Power Rankings: Week 2

1) Peter Emiley (Last week: 1)

FML. Peter has 268 PF, 50 more than his closest competitor. After his monstrous Week 1, he comes back with a Week 2 performance that screams, “I ain’t no joke. Respect me.” His front seven are so damn good that even a 3 from Frank Gore barely affects him. I’m baffled, because I hate most of Peter’s players, but as of right now he is getting results and will not be ignored.

2) Humble Pie (Last week: Unranked)

A few things for me to regret: ranking Kyle #2 last week (and so the descent begins!), praising the Philadelphia offense (I hate them all) and the NE second-stringers (I hate them all). Also, disrespecting Dane, but I won’t take that back. I will persevere!

3) Dane’s team logo (Last week: Unranked)

Because it’s amazing. Runner up: Jason’s.

4) Comebacks (Last week: Unranked)

From the dregs of society last week to the penthouse this week, Ryan Good and Kim have proven they won’t just roll over and die already. The season is early, and both of them could make playoffs pushes. Ryan/B is a notoriously every-other-year team, and this is designated to be one of his hotspots. Kim has been steadily improving over the course of the past two seasons. Can she capitalize?

5) Underachieving (Last week: Unranked)

Thanks for the win, Kyle. Next time we play it’ll be my turn for the meltdown

6) Our living FAA Experiment

With the Jason Rule now officially in effect, I am very, very interested to see what becomes of the FAA and how players choose to spend their money. We haven’t had a ton of action until this week, but suddenly everyone is going for it. Peter leads the list with $26 for James Starks, just the worst RB ever. I feel like James Starks is picked up for $25-80 every year when the qualified RB in front of him gets injured, then shows exactly why he’s a backup. Usually to the tune of 2 yards on forty carries. With eight fumbles.

Ryan/B picks up Eddie Royal for $22 (just two more than the next highest offer, good job to you sir), who has no chance of continuing to catch TDs at his current prolific rate and is destined to be a disappointment. The bizarrely named Groin Wolf adds some TE I’ve never head of for $7, while Scott makes the half-wise (new potential starting RB yea) half-stupid (he’s terrible) decision to pick up Willis McGahee. And as further signs of the apocalypse, Travis picks up Alex Smith for his QB.

I am wondering if anyone will hit that critical $0 during the season and thus prevent themselves from obtaining players. Under the right circumstances (a bye week or injury), this could be a total disaster…or it might be a nonissue. It has certainly changed spending. We have yet to see the rise of Makin’ It Rain Jason, which by this point last year had spent $84 on players he would never use.  This week he spent $3. Congrats, owners, you’ve officially ruined Jason’s life.

7) Score bumps

Peter and I discussed this via text message this week. While scores seem to be up quite a bit this season (thus far…though it always seems like the beginning of the season is more explosive), after some very simple reasoning, we realized the fractional points have nothing to do with it.

Think about it; there are only seven active players that have fractional points. In the max situation, each would get an extra 0.9 points with fractional scoring, equaling just 6.3 points. An average sum would seem to be a rise of 3.5 points (or 0.5 per player).

While seemingly insignificant week to week, this might potentially play havoc on our highest point seasons. A 6.3 point addition per week would equal 81.9 points total, a significant jump. Even just 3.5 per week would lead to 45.5 points. We might be entering a new renaissance, similar to our Year One fiasco of the 6 point QB TDs.

8) Michigan Football (Last Week: 4)

Last weekend notwithstanding, of course. For any of you who will be in the Michigan area during Thanksgiving, Lori and I will be heading up there for some Ohio State madness. I can’t promise we’ll be shelling out the kidney required to get tickets, but copious beer pong and tailgating will occur. I hope some of you will be around.

9) and 10) A General Sense of Ennui

My internet is broken and I’m running out of things to talk about. Let’s just call it a week, shall we? It is already Thursday night, after all.

Records

After a record-breaking Week 1, we’ve got just one record this week: Jimmy Graham’s 23.9 TE points for Ryan/B puts him at #6 on the TE All Time Chart. This also bumps Vernon Davis’ Week 1 performance for Donel from the list. Better luck next time.

Next Week: Rob gets ATT Uverse (hopefully) and regains the use of the internet. 

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